Saudi Arabia Plans Houthi Offensive To Retake Bab el-Mandeb And Secure Red Sea Shipping

Saudi Arabia is preparing a new offensive against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, with Riyadh considering either a focused coastal assault to regain control around the Bab el-Mandeb strait or a broader operation involving simultaneous attacks across several parts of the country.

The operation could be launched in the coming weeks and would be led by Yemeni forces overseen by Saudi Arabia, with support from Saudi air strikes. According to Reuters, the offensive is aimed at reversing recent Houthi advances along the coast and regaining control of the Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic Red Sea passage that has become increasingly important as the Iran conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Six people familiar with the preparations, including Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats, told Reuters that the timing of the offensive remains uncertain. Their estimates range from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.

Riyadh weighs two options for Yemen offensive

Saudi Arabia is considering two possible approaches, according to Gulf and Yemeni officials. One would involve a narrowly focused assault on the area around Bab el-Mandeb. The other would be a broader offensive involving coordinated attacks on multiple fronts in the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.

More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilised depending on the scale of the operation, the officials said.

A key objective is to reverse rapid Houthi gains made last month, when the group advanced down the coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, according to people familiar with the plans. Western diplomats and a Gulf official said Riyadh has concluded that it cannot enter new peace negotiations with the Houthis while the group remains in control of the strategic passage.

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern exit from the Red Sea and a major shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia. The passage has assumed greater importance this year as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed by the Iran conflict, making the Red Sea route an alternative for international shipping.

Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen's civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognised government after the Houthis drove it out of the capital, Sanaa.

A truce between the warring parties agreed in 2022 largely held until this year, when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure amid the spillover from the Iran war.

Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the Saudi plans.

Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected the offensive to be narrowly focused and more limited than the Saudi-led operation launched in 2015.

"As much they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to ​status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb," he added. "Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic."

US provides intelligence as allies bolster Saudi defences

Washington is providing military advisers and intelligence to support Saudi operations in Yemen, but Saudi allies are not expected to take part directly in combat operations.

According to Reuters, US military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, are being provided to support Saudi air operations in Yemen. Reuters has previously reported that US President Donald Trump rejected requests from the de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support, including US air strikes.

Regional and European countries have mainly provided defensive military assistance to Saudi Arabia, while the United States is supporting Riyadh with intelligence.

Turkey and Pakistan have also supplied military equipment that Saudi Arabia is using in Yemen, according to Pakistani and regional officials. The two countries signed a joint defence agreement last month.

Pakistan sent four cargo planes carrying equipment including air defence systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden last month, according to a Pakistani government official. Aden is the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed government.

Pakistani military advisers are also on the ground with Saudi counterparts supporting Yemeni forces, according to a second Pakistani official, a Gulf official and a Western diplomat. Turkish drones purchased by Saudi Arabia before the current war have also been deployed over Yemen, they said.

One of Riyadh's key concerns is protecting its oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks. Regional officials said Saudi Arabia has asked several allies for assistance with defensive systems.

Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend the kingdom's land borders and assist with drone and missile interceptions, according to the second Pakistani official. The troops arrived in waves beginning last year, including after the latest escalation.

The Pakistani official said Islamabad has not decided to send troops into Yemen in a fighting capacity.

The Pakistani and Turkish defence ministries did not respond to requests for comment on their military support for Riyadh.

France has announced that it will send defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.

Divided Yemeni forces face Houthi offensive

A Saudi-backed ground operation would rely on a disparate coalition of Yemeni fighting factions that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates armed and trained during earlier stages of the civil war, when the conflict had settled into a bloody stalemate.

"Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organised or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force. And they are being tested right now, ⁠as the Houthis apply ​pressure across several fronts at once," said Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha.

Yemeni forces became further divided last winter when southern fighters backed by the UAE attempted to seize territory in the east and announced plans for secession. Saudi-backed fighters defeated them following a series of clashes.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, said the outcome of any Saudi offensive against the Houthis would depend on the performance of the ground forces.

"The priority so far has been to defend the positions on ​the ground and stabilize the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive," he said. "Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces."

The Houthis have become Iran's most formidable ally in the Middle East since Israel's degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years.

A Saudi-directed offensive against the group would mark another flashpoint in a region engulfed by conflict since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent US-Israeli war on Iran.