Outlook Explains | Trump, Meloni and A $120 Billion Question Behind This Very Public Feud

It started with a photograph. Or rather, with a claim about one. Two days back, in a phone interview broadcast by Italian network La7 after the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains of France, US President Donald Trump claimed that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had "begged" him for a photo at the summit earlier that week.

"She wanted a picture with me so badly. I wouldn't have taken it, but I felt sorry for her," Trump said. The broadcaster posted only a dubbed Italian translation, not the original audio.

Meloni's response arrived within hours. "Donald Trump's statements are completely fabricated. I'm frankly stunned," she said in a video posted on social media. "Neither I nor Italy ever beg," she concluded.

The fight has not stopped since.

From Alliance to Liability

Flashback to January 2025, when Meloni was the only European leader present at Trump's second inauguration. Trump had previously called her a "fantastic woman" who was "really taking Europe by storm" when the two met at Mar-a-Lago that same month. The Washington Post described Meloni as Europe's "Trump whisperer" — the one European right-wing leader who seemed to have genuine access to the White House.

Then comes March 2026. Meloni publicly declared the US-Iran war illegal, refused to allow US bombers access to a critical military airbase in Sicily, and declined to join the NATO group that Trump says failed to support American forces near the Strait of Hormuz.

Then in April, Trump lashed out at Pope Leo XIV over the pontiff's condemnation of the Iran war, and Meloni publicly defended the Pope. Trump accused her of lacking courage. An April interview Trump gave to Italian daily Corriere della Sera, in which he criticised Meloni, was an apparent earlier flashpoint, which Meloni herself referenced in her Friday video.

Just a day after Meloni’s repsosne, Trump posted on Truth Social accusing Meloni of now trying to repair relations after opposing him, writing "Now, after the United States defeated Iran militarily, she wants to be friends again in order to get her 'numbers up.' No thanks." Meloni replied the same day on Facebook, writing "my popularity depends on my ability to defend Italy's national interests," and pointed to her refusal to violate base agreements as evidence of sovereignty, not disloyalty.

"My popularity is none of your concern. I suggest you focus on yours," she added.

What Is Sitting in Middle

The personal feud is one thing. The economic relationship it is playing out against is another matter entirely.

According to data compiled by US International Trade Administration, two-way trade in goods and services between the United States and Italy reached $137.6 billion in 2024, with US imports from Italy at $93.2 billion and US exports to Italy at $44.4 billion. Trading Economics, citing UN COMTRADE data last updated in May 2026, puts Italy's exports to the United States at $78.72 billion in 2025 and US exports to Italy at $43.66 billion in 2025. USImportData, a trade data platform, puts total bilateral goods trade at over $120 billion in 2025, a 7% rise from the previous year.

The composition of that trade is what makes any deterioration genuinely painful. According to USImportData, the US imported $14.57 billion worth of Italian machinery in 2025, $10.57 billion in pharmaceuticals, plus substantial volumes of luxury vehicles, designer goods, furniture, food and wine. US trade data, cited by the International Trade Administration, shows the US runs a significant deficit with Italy — $48.8 billion in 2024 — driven largely by these high-value, brand-driven categories where Italian goods face limited American substitutes.

Italian FDI in the US stood at $54.7 billion in 2024, according to the International Trade Administration, while US FDI in Italy reached $36 billion. The two economies are meaningfully embedded in each other in aerospace, automotive, food and beverages, and pharmaceuticals.

Why Europe Is Watching

The immediate diplomatic consequence was real. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani cancelled a planned official trip to the US and described Trump's comments as "serious and offensive" toward Meloni and all of Italy. A US-Italy business conference scheduled for Monday in Miami was also called off.

Lorenzo Castellani, a political scientist at Rome's Luiss Guido Carli University, told AP News that the feud may actually work in Meloni's domestic favour. "In some ways this was a favor to Giorgia Meloni, in the sense that she was accused until a few months ago of being a sort of Trump's vassal in Europe," he said.

Even Italy's opposition rallied around her. As ABC News reported, Senator Filippo Sensi of the centre-left Democratic Party posted that "I have nothing in common with Meloni, who boasted about being a bridge between Trump's America and the EU. But no one can treat Italy this way."

That cross-party solidarity in Rome, set against the cancelled diplomatic visit and the frozen business forum, tells enoiugh of what the European read of this moment is. Prism News, citing a European diplomatic source, reported that Meloni had actually challenged Trump during the summit itself and defended Europe's position.

The public spat, as Prism put it, "reads as more than a photo dispute." It is a proxy fight over loyalty, sovereignty, and who sets the terms within the Western alliance.

"Italy's reluctance to provide its bases to the US, as I reported after my call with President Trump last week, appears to be one of the key factors behind the tensions, among others," Daniele Compatangelo, White House Correspondent for LA7, said.

Whether it bleeds into actual trade policy is the question neither side has answered yet. Trump's tariff machinery and his track record of turning personal grievances into economic pressure are well documented. For now, the $120 billion relationship between the world's largest economy and Italy's export-driven industrial base sits uncomfortably in the background of a fight that started, absurdly, with a photograph on a sofa in the French Alps.