Nepal Elections 2026: Old Guard Versus Gen-Z As Polling Takes Place Today

The political events of September 2025, marked by a youth uprising, changed the politics of Nepal like never before. The nation's Gen-Z, armed with smartphones and social media, declared war against Nepal’s old guard. The primary objective of the uprising, among others, was to lift the ban on social media, end rampant corruption and usher in good governance.  

In less than 40 hours, the government of Nepal’s two largest political parties – Nepali Congress and CPN-UML – collapsed and civil administration became dysfunctional. Rioters attacked the pillars of the Nepali State:  judiciary, parliament house, central secretariat, presidential palace, and other government offices. They also burned down the residences of political leaders.  

Why did the Gen-Z rebel against State  institutions, political parties and their leaders? The answer certainly lies in the way Nepal has developed state institutions over the years, practiced politics, and delivered democratic dividends to the people. What transpired in September 2025 was in the making for a long  time.  Sadly enough, Nepal’s political class chose not to pay much attention to address the simmering crisis.

Altogether 76 people lost their lives and thousands were injured. Nepal lost around five per cent of its total GDP within less than forty hours.  Formation of the government became possible only when Chief of Nepali army  Ashok Raj Sigde,  President  Ram Chandra Paudel and members of the Gen-Z movement sat together and struck a deal. They agreed to dissolve Nepal’s parliament and set up a high-level Commission to investigate violence, human casualties, and property damage resulting from the Gen-Z movement. Former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Sushila Karki became interim Prime Minister. Karki’s government was mandated to hold the national election. The constitution of Nepal was put in abeyance. Many constitutional observers argue that the interim government was formed as per the article 61 (4) of the Constitution but this, perhaps, is the biggest ‘constitutional lie’ as there are no such provisions.

Nepal is all set to hold elections on March 5. In the run up to the elections, the government has already deployed security forces, including the Army to maintain security and protect vital installations. The security apparatus of Nepal Police has been severely damaged and lost weapons during the movement. Many criminals fled prisons. Overall, security remains vulnerable to the point that any untoward incident could take place without any prior warning. The polarised political spectrum, too, poses a threat to security. Any further deterioration of security could turn the political landscape into a difficult terrain if not a political battleground. How election outcomes will pan out has become a matter of concern for all of us. Many equate Nepal’s situation with the electoral outcomes of the Bangladesh. But that certainly is not the case. In Bangladesh, the deposed Awami League was not allowed to contest the election. But in the case of Nepal, the situation is fundamentally different. Both old and new political parties are contesting elections together. In Nepal, Gen-Z do not have any political party. They are subsumed within the political parties, mainly the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). What is strikingly similar in both Nepal and Bangladesh is that the youth were used to unseat the government for regime change. Sadly, with the passage of time, Gen-Z’s agendas were not really taken up.

Manifestos and mandates

The upcoming election, for all practical reasons, is a kind of mini referendum on who Nepali citizens vote for: young political parties or the old guard. The major political parties have already unveiled their manifestos or declaration papers as they have termed this time around. They are grandiose yet read similar - ambitious, ritualistic, and verbose. Everything under the sun has been included but without proper justification. To the dismay of many of us, political parties have been recycling the same promises for many decades. People are fed up with such hollow promises. Apart from economic and other promises, they have also promised to make constitutional amendments. This includes key issues of governance. For example, the Rastriya Swatantra Party is in favour of revisiting the current model of federalism. They have also promised a directly elected executive head. The Rashtriya Prajatantra Party promises revival of monarchy and declaring Nepal a Hindu state. Likewise, the Nepali Congress has promised to reduce the number of ministries both at the provinces and centre. By and large, almost all the political parties, in one way or the other, have something on the constitutional amendments. By making such promises, they are already inviting political instability in the future. The amendment of the Constitution requires a two-third majority. And political parties are most unlikely to yield that under the current state of affairs.

Moreover, there is a huge gap between promises and delivery made by the political parties.  Nepali voters have noticed this gap in the past. They feel betrayed by the political parties for the reason that none of their promises were fulfilled. Therefore, voters are not going to be swayed by the hollow promises anchored in the manifestos/declarations of the political parties. Maybe this could be the reason why political discourse has only centered around two factors – new vs old - nothing less, nothing more. 

There are parties across the diverse political spectrum in the fray. There are ideological parties (right, left, and centre), programmatic political parties, and issue-based parties. Additionally, there are legacy-based political parties such as the Nepali Congress (NC) which has repeatedly struggled to install democracy. NC, indeed, is considered as one of the oldest parties in South Asia - second only to the Indian National Congress – with commitment towards democracy. Moreover, there are other political parties like the Communist Party of Nepal – United Marxist and Leninist (CPN-UML), which has been credited for ushering in the idea of communist model of political governance in Nepal. Another important political party is the Nepali Communist Party (NCP). It emerged after the merger of 11 smaller communist parties. Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda is working as its coordinator.

These political parties have dominated Nepal’s politics for considerable time – both in power and outside of power. However, the entire post- Gen-Z political environment has been influenced if not dominated by new political actors such as the Rastriya Swatantra Party.  Parties and individuals having no political legacy and ideology have stolen the limelight. The most important, among them is Balen Sah – a rapper turned politician – who had also served as the Mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City until recently.

Big unanswered questions

What is important is how Nepal’s new political parties will fare in the election and the brodader democratisation process? Will they strike a right balance on the foreign policy front? Will they be instrumental in creating economic opportunities and provide much awaited democratic stability? These are key questions in today’s Nepali politics.

Answering these questions, however, is not that easy since all is not well with new political parties and their leaders. Arguably new political actors are merely harping on the failures of old political parties. Like others, they too, have not come up with policies and programmes which could truly bring meaningful changes. Neither have they picked up agendas of the Gen-Z movement. Paradoxically, they have hijacked the movement and redefined it as per their own convenience.  

What lies ahead?

Although no political party has come up with convincing manifestos, public sentiment favours new political parties and leaders. Voters are frustrated and unhappy with the old political class to the extent that they are ready to gamble on the new ones. Under these circumstances, it is most likely that RSP could emerge as the largest political party. Also, the RSP has strong support from the Nepali diaspora. Migrant workers abroad have been voluntarily mobilsing voters back home. Yet we do not know to what extent such sentiments translate into ballots. If that doesn’t happen, RSP will not be the largest political party. Observers say the RSP is mostly popular in urban centres. 

If the RSP becomes the largest party, the Nepali Congress which has come up with new leadership through special convention might emerge as the second largest.  NC’s leaders are claiming that they have changed the party and they will now work to change the country. NC was the largest party in the 2022 election. However, there is a sizable number of party workers within the NC who might disagree with the way the new leadership is elected. If NC is able to set internal divisions aside, it can perform well and can even become the number one party.  

CPN-UML – a cadre-based party with a disciplined organisational structure might come third in the race. It was the second largest in 2022.  Like the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML also held its national convention but there was no change in leadership. K P Sharma Oli is president for the third time.  However, Oli, who was Prime Minister when the Gen-Z revolt took place, has been largely held accountable for the violence and destruction. Had he acted promptly and prudently, perhaps, Nepal would not have witnessed the scale of violence that the country went through. Despite all this, if the party is able to hold its cadres together, it might perform well in the upcoming election. In the 2022 election, it secured the highest number of popular votes.

The Nepali Communist Party, a successor of sorts to the CPN(Maoist) that led the Maoist insurgency in the country for nearly 10 years – might emerge as the fourth largest party. Likewise, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party which strongly advocates the revival of monarchy and a Hindu State – might become the fifth largest party.  

Regional players like the Janamat Party headed by C K Raut, the Janata Samajbadi Party led by Upendra Yadav and the Nagrik Unmukti Party – all hailing from the low-land Terai/Madhes region of Nepal, are likely to underperform. Their vote share could fall. Likewise, the Shram Shanshkriti Party of Harka Sampang, former mayor of Dharan, might gain a few seats on the basis of ethnicity. Another new player, the Ujjyalo Party headed by former Energy Minister Kul Man Ghishing, might get one or two seats.

Unlike Bangladesh, the Gen-Z in Nepal doesn’t have a party of their own. Most of them are with RSP.  People are voting for new political parties not because they are good, but because people do not have many options left and they certainly do not want to bring back old political parties. However, a great deal of fear and concern is over how new parties will take the country ahead, if they are elected. Many fear that they might turn Nepal into another Ukraine in South Asia. This fear is there precisely because they are perceived as the product of geopolitics. Therefore, nothing can be said which party will win the election. What can certainly be predicted, however, is that none of them is likely to get a simple majority needed to form the government. There will be a collation government of two or more than two parties. The coalition itself will decide the future of political stability.

Future of political stability?

Nepal’s experience with coalition politics is not satisfactory. A coalition government can only succeed when coalition partners have similar views on development, democracy, national priorities and geopolitics. But that certainly is not the case here.  For a time, Nepal’s coalitions were dominated by political parties of contrasting ideologies/world views. The future of stability would, therefore, depend upon the nature of coalition partners and their world views, their relations with neighbours and national priorities. It would be too early to predict who the coalition partner(s) will be in the post-electoral government. What certainly can be expected from the upcoming election is that it will replace one class of elites with another. But it definitely will not provide solutions to the core political and socio-economic questions of this country. Can Nepal’s new political forces and leaders navigate the country from the complex geopolitics or get further enmeshed into it?  

Chandra Dev Bhatta is a political scientist based in Kathmandu
Views expressed are personal