Israel Election: Who Can Form The Government And What's Next?

Israel’s election has left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, short of the majority needed to form a government, setting the stage for weeks of negotiations that could determine the country’s political future.

Exit polls released after voting ended on Tuesday projected both leaders’ blocs to fall around 10 seats short of the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Neither has claimed victory, and the final results could still affect the balance of power.

The Arab-led parties, projected to win 17 to 19 seats, could become kingmakers. While they have offered to support Eisenkot from outside a coalition, he has not committed to governing with them. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has ruled out relying on Arab-led parties and faces difficulties retaining the support of his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies.

The election is the first since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which killed around 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage, according to Israeli figures. The attack triggered Israel’s war on Gaza, which has since drawn international condemnation and heightened tensions across the region.

The vote has also put Netanyahu’s leadership under scrutiny over the security failures preceding the October 7 attack, his handling of efforts to retrieve hostages, corruption allegations and disputes over exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox men.

Here is what happens next and what the election could mean for Israel.

When Will The Final Election Results Be Announced?

Exit polls released after polling stations closed on Tuesday offered the first indication of the likely outcome. However, these are projections rather than official results, and the final distribution of seats could change as votes are counted.

The final tally is expected by Thursday or Friday, while the official results are scheduled to be published on November 4.

Even after the results are confirmed, Israel may not have a new government immediately. The outcome has left both major political blocs short of a majority, meaning negotiations with smaller parties will determine who can assemble sufficient support to govern.

How Does Israel's Electoral System Work?

Israel follows a proportional representation system in which voters choose a political party rather than individual candidates in their constituencies.

The 120 seats in the Knesset are allocated according to the proportion of votes each party receives nationally. A party must secure at least 3.25 per cent of the national vote to enter parliament.

A party or coalition needs at least 61 seats to command a majority. Because Israel has a multiparty political system, no single party has ever won an outright parliamentary majority, making coalition governments the norm.

The electoral threshold also means that votes for parties that fail to cross it do not translate into parliamentary representation. The final allocation of seats could therefore affect the prospects of both Netanyahu and Eisenkot.

How Is Israel's Next Prime Minister Chosen?

Once the official results are announced, President Isaac Herzog will consult political party leaders about whom they believe should form the next government.

Herzog will then nominate the candidate he considers most likely to secure enough parliamentary support. Although the leader of the largest party is often given the first opportunity, the president is not bound to select that person.

The nominee will have up to 42 days to form a government. This will involve negotiating agreements with other parties, which may seek cabinet positions or commitments on issues such as military service, security and domestic policy.

The nominee must ultimately secure the Knesset's support for the proposed government. Until a new administration takes office, Netanyahu's government will continue in a caretaker capacity.

Who Holds The Balance Of Power?

The Arab-led parties could prove decisive in determining whether Eisenkot can form a government.

The Joint List, an alliance of Arab parties, has offered a political safety net for a government that removes Netanyahu from power, although it is unlikely to join a governing coalition outright. Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, has also expressed openness to working with Eisenkot's bloc.

The two parties were projected to win a combined 17 to 19 seats, with turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel emerging as a significant factor in the election.

Their support could help Eisenkot secure parliamentary backing for a minority government, even if they do not formally join his coalition. Such an arrangement would depend on the terms of their support and whether other parties would accept it.

However, cooperation with Arab-led parties could create difficulties for Eisenkot, potentially alienating sections of his own opposition bloc.

Netanyahu faces a different challenge. His traditional allies include far-right parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, which were projected to win a combined 13 seats, as well as ultra-Orthodox parties that oppose ending exemptions from military service for young men in their communities.

The exit polls suggested reduced support for some of these parties. Netanyahu's options for expanding his coalition are consequently limited, particularly as he has ruled out relying on Arab-led parties.

What Are Netanyahu's Options?

Netanyahu could still be given the first opportunity to form a government, depending on Herzog's assessment of the parliamentary numbers.

The Likud leader has spent nearly 19 of the past 30 years as prime minister and has repeatedly survived political crises. After the election, he called for a strong right-wing national government and highlighted Israel's military operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

However, his bloc is projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. With smaller right-wing parties also struggling to enter parliament, he has limited options for securing additional support.

One possibility is an agreement with political rivals to form a national unity government. Such an arrangement would require Netanyahu to abandon his existing far-right and ultra-Orthodox partnerships, making it politically difficult.

A similar arrangement in 2020 saw Netanyahu share power with Benny Gantz, a former military chief, after three inconclusive elections. The partnership collapsed after a year, leading to another election.

Netanyahu's immediate prospects will depend on whether he can find partners willing to support his leadership despite the electoral setback.

Can Eisenkot Form A Government With Arab-Led Parties?

Eisenkot has presented the result as a rejection of Netanyahu's leadership and pledged to form a new government.

A former chief of staff of the Israeli military, Eisenkot entered politics four years ago. He joined Netanyahu's war cabinet following the October 7 attack but left eight months later, criticising the prime minister's leadership.

His most viable route to power could involve securing support from Arab-led parties without formally bringing them into his coalition.

Under this arrangement, Eisenkot could attempt to lead a minority government. Such a government would need to secure parliamentary backing, potentially with Arab-led parties supporting it from outside the coalition or abstaining in a confidence vote.

However, Eisenkot has not committed to governing with these parties, and the arrangement could face resistance from other opposition groups.

His positions also suggest that a change in leadership would not necessarily mean a fundamental shift in Israel's security policy. Eisenkot opposes Palestinian statehood and has rejected a two-state solution on security grounds. He has also argued that Iran's nuclear programme must be curbed, including through military action if necessary.

A government led by Eisenkot could therefore mark a political break with Netanyahu while retaining a hawkish approach to regional security.

What Happens If Neither Leader Can Form A Government?

If negotiations fail, Israel could be forced into another election, potentially early next year.

The country has experienced repeated political deadlocks in recent years, holding five elections between April 2019 and November 2022. Netanyahu's opponents managed to remove him from office only once during that period, after four inconclusive elections in two years. He returned to power 18 months later.

Until a new government is formed, Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister. Although a caretaker administration continues to run public services, its ability to make major policy changes is limited.

A prolonged deadlock could nevertheless benefit Netanyahu by allowing him to remain in office while negotiations continue.

It could also raise questions about the government's authority to make major security decisions. Netanyahu has repeatedly threatened further action against Iran alongside US President Donald Trump, while Eisenkot has warned against using Israel's security for political purposes.

Any renewed military action would carry significant regional implications, particularly amid continuing tensions involving Iran and other countries in the region.

What Challenges Will Israel's Next Government Face?

Whoever forms the next government will inherit several contentious domestic and foreign policy challenges.

One of the most pressing is the dispute over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. After three years of war, demands to end the exemptions have intensified, putting pressure on parties that have traditionally relied on these communities for political support.

The next government will also face calls for an independent commission of inquiry into the security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, attack. Netanyahu has rejected calls for an investigation and blamed the military for failures, while his opponents have argued that he must be held accountable for the lapses that occurred under his leadership.

Corruption allegations against Netanyahu will remain another political flashpoint. He is on trial over corruption charges, which he denies. He also faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, allegations he denies.

Israel's conduct in Gaza and the occupied West Bank has also strained its relations with international partners, with some European countries imposing sanctions or other measures in response to its policies.

The election has therefore left Israel facing two immediate questions: whether either political bloc can assemble a parliamentary majority and whether a new government can address the domestic divisions and security challenges that have shaped the country since October 7.

The final results, followed by negotiations under Herzog, will determine whether Israel gets a new government or heads towards another election.