Israel Government Formation: How Gadi Eisenkot Could Secure 61 Knesset Votes To Replace Netanyahu

The arithmetic of power in Israel is rarely as straightforward as the arithmetic of an election. Gadi Eisenkot has won the first opportunity to form the country's next government, but the former military chief faces a more difficult task: turning political endorsements into 61 votes in a deeply divided 120-member Knesset. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still commanding the largest parliamentary bloc, Eisenkot has six weeks to build a coalition that can survive its first test in parliament.

President Isaac Herzog formally gave the Yashar party leader the mandate on November 8, after 67 lawmakers recommended him for the task, against 46 who backed Netanyahu. Seven lawmakers did not recommend either candidate. The figures gave Eisenkot the advantage in the presidential consultations, but they do not amount to a governing majority. Under Israeli law, he has 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension. The threshold remains 61.

Arab Parties Could Hold The Key, But Support Comes With Conditions

Eisenkot's first possible route lies with the Arab-led parties, which hold a combined 19 seats. His four-party opposition alliance has 48 seats, while Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc has 53. If the Arab parties were to support Eisenkot, either by joining a coalition or backing it from outside, he could cross the majority threshold. Such an arrangement would not be without precedent: in 2021, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid formed a government with the support of the Arab Islamist party Ra'am, ending Netanyahu's uninterrupted tenure at the time.

But the numbers conceal a political minefield. Eisenkot has been reluctant to rely on Arab parties, and some of his prospective partners oppose a government dependent on their support. His proposed conditions for a national emergency government include recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, adherence to its Declaration of Independence, universal military or civilian service, and a commitment to dismantling Hamas. These demands could make negotiations with the Arab-led Joint List and Ra'am difficult. Their leaders, in turn, are likely to seek commitments on equality, public investment and the rights of Palestinian citizens of Israel.

A second route could run through the ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas. Together, they hold 13 seats. Added to Eisenkot's 48-seat bloc, their support would bring the total to 61 — exactly the number needed. Yet this path carries its own price. The central dispute is military conscription: Eisenkot and some of his allies want ultra-Orthodox men to share the burden of service, while the religious parties have long sought exemptions for students of religious seminaries. A compromise could secure the votes, but risk alienating voters who backed Eisenkot's alliance partly because they oppose unequal military-service obligations.

Netanyahu Still Has A Way Back As Coalition Talks Begin

A broader national unity government involving Likud is another possibility. Netanyahu has called for a unity arrangement, and Eisenkot has indicated that Likud figures could participate if they accept the principles he has set out. Such a government could command a more comfortable majority, but the question of who would lead it remains formidable. Eisenkot campaigned as an alternative to Netanyahu, while Likud's leader has little reason to surrender the premiership without substantial political guarantees.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, is not out of the contest. His bloc has 53 seats, and he could get another opportunity if Eisenkot fails. Under the parliamentary process, the president may ask another lawmaker to try to form a government; if successive attempts collapse, Israel could be headed towards another election. Until a new government wins the Knesset's confidence, Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister.

For Eisenkot, the challenge is therefore not simply to gather enough lawmakers around a negotiating table. It is to reconcile parties whose positions on religion, military service, Arab representation and Netanyahu's political future often pull in opposite directions. The mandate has opened the door to a change of government. Whether Eisenkot can persuade those on either side of Israel's political divide to walk through it will determine what happens next.