Netanyahu Or Gadi Eisenkot? Herzog Begins Talks To Decide Israel's Next PM

Israeli President Isaac Herzog has accepted the certified results of the country's October 27 parliamentary election as legally binding and begun consultations with political parties to determine who should be tasked with forming the next government. The move comes after the Central Elections Committee found no evidence of electoral fraud or irregularities affecting the outcome, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's attempts to discredit the vote.

The election left Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc with 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, short of the 61 required for a parliamentary majority. The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot secured 48 seats, while Arab-led parties won a record 19, potentially giving them a decisive role in the coalition negotiations.

Herzog began meeting political representatives on Wednesday after receiving the official results. He is expected to complete consultations over two days before deciding which candidate has the best chance of assembling a governing majority. The process could lead to weeks of negotiations, with another election possible if neither side manages to form a government.

Election Commission Finds No Evidence Of Fraud

The Central Elections Committee said on Wednesday that its investigation into allegations of electoral fraud had found no evidence of irregularities that compromised the integrity of the election or affected its results.

The committee reviewed 9,069 polling stations as part of its examination. Its acting director, Dean Livne, said every complaint had been investigated "individually and thoroughly" and that the results "accurately reflect the choices voters made at the ballot box", ABC News reported.

The findings came after Netanyahu and his allies repeatedly alleged that Arab-led parties had stolen the election, possibly with assistance from foreign actors. The claims followed significant gains by Arab-led parties and the loss of Netanyahu's parliamentary majority.

The certification process went ahead, with representatives of Netanyahu's Likud party and Shas abstaining from the vote in the Central Elections Committee's five-member presidium, according to Al Jazeera. Representatives of Yesh Atid and Blue and White voted to ratify the results, while Committee chairman and Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg cast the deciding vote.

However, a separate investigation by Israel's domestic intelligence agency, Shin Bet, into suspected foreign interference remains ongoing. The agency had presented an intelligence assessment alleging substantial foreign funding and influence operations, including possible involvement by countries considered hostile to Israel.

The Shin Bet has not provided supporting evidence to substantiate its allegations, the Associated Press reported. Sohlberg said that even if the suspicions were substantiated, the scope of their potential impact would be limited.

The agency had also sought permission from Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara to question several elected Arab lawmakers, including Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas. Baharav-Miara rejected the request, citing the absence of evidence justifying the questioning, according to AP.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, an ally of Netanyahu, called for the arrest and interrogation of Arab party leaders. Herzog, meanwhile, backed a full investigation into suspected foreign interference but cautioned against using the allegations to discredit Arab voters. He condemned "the coarseness and racist expressions that we have heard recently".

Netanyahu And Eisenkot Face Coalition Challenge

Ra'am's decision to recommend Eisenkot has raised his expected endorsements to 56, according to Al Jazeera, citing Israeli media. Netanyahu's 53-seat bloc, meanwhile, may not translate into 53 recommendations. Degel HaTorah, which holds four of United Torah Judaism's seven seats, has said it will recommend neither candidate, following disagreements with Netanyahu's outgoing coalition over legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox Jewish men from military service. The Joint List, which holds 11 seats, had not announced its position. Its support could take Eisenkot beyond the 61-seat majority mark.

Although 61 seats constitute a majority in the 120-member Knesset, a government can take office with fewer coalition lawmakers if it receives more votes in favour than against in the Knesset's confidence vote, potentially with support from parties outside the coalition. The results have therefore made the Arab-led parties significant players in the negotiations, although their participation in a governing coalition remains politically contentious.

According to Al Jazeera, the election has raised the possibility of an arrangement between Eisenkot's opposition bloc and the Arab-led parties, as well as a potential unity government involving rival political factions. However, several opposition leaders have ruled out joining forces with Netanyahu, while some have also opposed forming a government with Arab parties.

Ra'am's recommendation does not mean the party has agreed to join an Eisenkot-led government. The party has signalled willingness to work with the opposition, although Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have previously ruled out partnering with Arab-led parties. The Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, has expressed willingness to cooperate with the opposition to remove Netanyahu but has said it does not intend to join an Eisenkot-led coalition. It could instead support the government from outside.

The recommendations made by political factions will be important in Herzog's decision, but they do not automatically determine whether a candidate can assemble a functioning coalition.

Herzog To Decide Who Gets First Chance To Form Government

Herzog's consultations with representatives of the political factions are expected to continue over two days. He will then decide which candidate is best positioned to secure sufficient parliamentary support to form a government.

The process does not automatically give Netanyahu the first opportunity to form a government simply because his bloc secured the largest number of seats. Herzog must consider the recommendations made during the consultations and assess which candidate has the strongest prospects of assembling a majority.

Once selected, the candidate will have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible extension of 14 days. If the candidate fails, Herzog can give another member of the Knesset an opportunity to form a government.

The election deadlock has raised the possibility of another general election early next year if neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can secure sufficient support. Israel previously held five elections between 2019 and 2022 amid repeated difficulties in forming stable governments.

Herzog has urged political leaders to compromise rather than allow the country to return to the polls. Addressing the absence of a clear winner, he said: "In the current reality, in which there is no clear winner after the elections, I ask for originality and creativity, courage and goodwill, so that the State of Israel emerges the winner."

The immediate challenge for the president is to identify a candidate capable of bringing together enough political factions to form a government, as negotiations begin following the certification of the election results.