Flávio Bolsonaro Beats Lula In First Round As Brazil Heads To Presidential Runoff

Brazil is heading for a presidential runoff between right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula despite most pre-election polls putting the incumbent in front.

With almost all votes counted, Bolsonaro secured about 47 per cent of the vote against 45 per cent for Lula, according to Brazil’s electoral court. Neither crossed the 50 per cent threshold required to win outright, setting up a second-round contest on October 25. Reuters reported that polls before the election had generally put Lula slightly ahead of Bolsonaro.

The result gives Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, an early advantage in the final three weeks of campaigning. Lula, 80, had hoped to secure a fourth non-consecutive term without a runoff but must now try to win over voters who backed other candidates in the first round.

Bolsonaro overturns polling expectations

The surprise was not that the election went to a runoff, but that Bolsonaro finished first. Lula had generally held a narrow lead over Bolsonaro in pre-election polls.

Reuters reported that Bolsonaro benefited from voters who wanted to defeat Lula and shifted their support towards the candidate most likely to reach the runoff. Political analyst Rafael Favetti told the agency that the protest vote had already moved towards Bolsonaro, which could limit his ability to expand his support in the runoff.

Bolsonaro himself said after the results that Brazil wanted change and declared the result the beginning of the end of Lula’s Workers’ Party era.

The 45-year-old senator has campaigned as the candidate of Brazil’s political right and has sought to build on the movement created by his father. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted over a plot to overturn his defeat in the 2022 presidential election.

Al Jazeera reported that Flávio Bolsonaro is seeking to return his father’s political movement to power and has pledged to seek an amnesty for him if he wins.

The runoff will also test whether the political movement associated with Jair Bolsonaro can return to the presidency four years after Lula defeated him.

Lula starts a new campaign

Lula acknowledged that the result was not what he had expected. “I admit, I was convinced I would win in the first round,” he said, according to Al Jazeera, as he urged supporters to prepare for the runoff.

Lula has sought to campaign on his government’s record, particularly its social welfare policies and reductions in inequality and unemployment. But Reuters reported that the president has struggled to overcome concerns among voters about high living costs, household debt, crime and expanding gang activity.

Economic concerns are likely to remain central to the runoff. Brazil’s public debt has risen above 82 per cent of GDP, while the government has lowered its forecasts for economic growth this year and next to 2 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively, Reuters reported.

The campaign offered relatively little substantive policy debate, with both leading candidates skipping major television debates. Scandals and concerns about foreign interference also overshadowed discussions on policy. For Lula, the challenge is to defend his economic and social record while addressing voters’ concerns over affordability and security. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, has sought to turn dissatisfaction over living costs and crime into an argument for political change.

Brazil’s right also makes gains in Congress

The presidential result came alongside a strong performance by right-wing parties in congressional elections, strengthening Bolsonaro’s political position even before the runoff.

Al Jazeera reported that Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party was on track to become the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies and was also making gains in the Senate. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former president’s wife and Flávio’s stepmother, won a Senate seat in the Federal District, while his brother Carlos Bolsonaro was elected to the Senate in Santa Catarina.

The results underline the strength of the Bolsonaro family’s political network beyond the presidential race and could give Flávio a stronger congressional base if he wins the runoff.

The gains could make it harder for Lula to advance his legislative agenda if he wins another term, while giving Bolsonaro a stronger base in Congress if he becomes president.

Both candidates must now expand beyond their existing bases. Al Jazeera reported that the two were already running close in hypothetical runoff polling before the first round, meaning Bolsonaro’s lead does not guarantee victory on October 25.

The final contest will turn on whether Bolsonaro can hold his first-round advantage and whether Lula can win over enough voters who backed other candidates.