After 20 Years, US Troops Set To Leave Iraq As Iran’s Allies Consolidate Influence

US forces in Iraq are set to leave their remaining bases on Wednesday, completing a withdrawal agreed upon by Washington and Baghdad, Reuters reported. The move marks the end of a two-decade US military presence in the country.

The departure is being viewed as a victory by Iran and its allies, who have gained significant political and security influence in Iraq since the US-led invasion in 2003. The withdrawal also comes amid concerns over the potential for Islamic State cells to regroup as the US military presence winds down.

"Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition's departure because it removes a military presence that for years acted as a counterweight to Tehran's influence in Iraq," said Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specialising in studying armed Shi'ite groups aligned with Iran, to Reuters.

He predicted that the pro-Iranian militia groups would not only portray the departure as a victory for their movement, ​but also "seek to translate that momentum into greater influence over security and political decision-making".

Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance, described the US withdrawal as "a ​historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honourable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project". The Islamic Resistance in Iraq is an umbrella group of Iran-backed armed factions.

Iraq In The Middle Of Iran-US Conflict

Iraq has in recent years balanced close political and military ties with both the United States and Iran, even as it has repeatedly become a battleground for tensions between the two countries. That strain sharpened after the United States killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a 2020 strike near Baghdad airport. Iran-aligned groups then carried out repeated attacks on US bases, at times drawing American retaliation.

The toll has continued. During the still-unresolved military conflict with Iran, seven of the 18 US service members were killed in Iraq. The latest death was of an Army sergeant who died during the controlled detonation of a drone at a base near Erbil in July.

Iraq Pullout Raises Islamic State Fears

Some Iraqi security officials in the federal government and the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region said the planned US pullout from Iraq could give Islamic State fighters a new opening. They said that, despite the defeat of its self-proclaimed caliphate nearly a decade ago, the group still maintains a sleeper-cell network.

Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said to Reuters that the loss of US intelligence, logistical support and drones would give Islamic State a chance to regroup. "For more than two weeks, we have noticed movement by (Islamic State) sleeper cells, after it was announced in the general media that there will be an official withdrawal of the international coalition from Iraq by the end of September," he said. "This has boosted, in my opinion, the morale of the fighters”.

At their height, Islamic State controlled a third of Iraq and killed thousands of people, including hundreds they filmed while gunning them down at a former base used by the US military.

History of US forces in Iraq

The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein. US tried to explain this invasion by arguing that Iraq was building weapons of mass destruction. However, many US officials have admitted that they knew there was no plan by Iraq to build weapons of mass destruction. It then kept a substantial troop presence in the country as a Shi’ite-led government took shape.

The US withdrew its forces in 2011. Less than three years later, American troops returned to help Iraqi forces defeat the Islamic State during the 2014-2017 war. They later fought a prolonged counterinsurgency with Iraqi government personnel. Approximately 4,500 Americans died during the two decades of war in Iraq.