White Bird

TZIPI LIVNI, as her name indicates, is the white bird of Israeli politics (Tzipiis short for Tzipora, "bird", and Livni comes from Lavan,"white"). As against the hawk Binyamin Netanyahu, the vulture EhudBarak and the raven Ehud Olmert, she was seen as the immaculate featheredfriend.

In public opinion polls, she has enjoyed a remarkable popularity. She trumpsall the other politicians in the governing coalition. While the rating of thetwo Ehuds - Olmert and Barak - was going down, hers was on the way up.

Why? Perhaps it was a case of the wish being the father of the thought. It isgenerally accepted that in the present Knesset no coalition could be set upwithout Kadima. Therefore, if one wants to throw Olmert out while avoiding newelections, Olmert's substitute must also come from Kadima. Livni is the onlycreditable candidate.

Still there is something odd about Livni's popularity. Up to now, she has notbeen faced with a serious test. She has never borne any real executiveresponsibility. She has been only a mediocre Minister of Justice.

Her public image is indeed impressive. She seems to be honest, a rareattribute for a politician. She looks wise. She looks courageous.

But anyone who studies her record must regretfully come to the oppositeconclusion. Tzipi Livni is far from courageous and far from wise.

THAT BECAME CLEAR a year ago, after the Second Lebanon War.

It seemed that public anger over the failed war would topple Olmert. Livnijumped at the opportunity. In a dramatic move she called for the resignation ofthe Prime Minister and offered herself as his successor. It was leaked that soonafter the beginning of the war, she had already called for its termination(which did not prevent her from voting for all of Olmert's moves.)

A courageous act, even if not very wise. Because very soon it became clearthat public anger was subsiding rapidly. The protest movement petered out.Olmert, with the skin of an elephant and the cunning of a fox, just kept hishead down and survived. He shook off the interim report of the Commission ofInquiry (the Winograd Report) as a dog sheds water. The day after the attemptedputsch, Livni found herself alone in a political vacuum.

What does a courageous politician do in such a situation? Resign, of course.Join the opposition, exhort, admonish, preach at the gate like the prophets ofyore.

But Livni did not do any of this. She just muttered some noncommittal words,folded her arms and remained in the cabinet. Like most of our politicians, sheparaphrases Descartes: "I am a minister - ergo I exist."

As a minister, she continues to bear "collective responsibility"for all the acts and defaults of a government headed by the very person sheherself has described as incompetent.

So much for courage. As for wisdom: if she was not certain about her abilityto unseat Olmert, why did she start this escapade in the first place? And if shewas not prepared to resign, why did she play at rebellion?

Olmert could have dismissed her. But he is much too clever. Better to haveher in the tent spitting out, than outside spitting in. Since then he haslavished her with praise and paid her compliments at every opportunity. What asuccessful Foreign Minister! What a wise diplomat!

THE LAST few days showed just how successful a Foreign Minister and how wisea diplomat Tzipi Livni really is.

It began with her appearance in the Foreign and Security Committee of theKnesset. In the distant past, that was a closed forum. But nowadays it resemblesa sieve with very large holes indeed. Every word spoken there is leaked evenbefore the speaker has closed his mouth - mostly by the assistants of thespeakers themselves.

In this forum, Livni said that the Egyptians were cheating on theircommitment to stop the smuggling of arms into the Gaza Strip. She demanded theymend their ways and put an end to this traffic.

It was not just a verbal complaint. It had practical implications: in the USCongress, there is an ongoing campaign to punish Egypt by cutting the hugepackage of financial aid it gets from the US. True, the Israeli Foreign Officedoes not associate itself openly with this demand, but everybody in Washingtonknows that in matters like this, the US Congress is not much more than aninstrument of Israeli policy. Members of the Knesset roam the corridors of theCapitol and lobby for the cut. They may belong to the right-wing opposition, butthey are clearly acting as emissaries of the Foreign Office.

To reinforce this effort, the Israeli government has distributed a videocassette around Washington showing Egyptian policemen standing passively bywhile the smuggling goes on under their very noses.

No wonder that Cairo considered Livni's remarks as another exercise ofblackmail against Egypt: if you don't comply with our demands, we shall hit youin your most sensitive spot - the pocket.

IT IS HARD to imagine a more foolish policy. Anyone who knows anything aboutEgypt - and there are such people even in the Foreign Office - would be awarethat this is not just about hitting the pocket, but also the heart. Not just amatter of money, but also of pride.

Every year Egypt gets more American money than any other country on earth -except Israel, of course. And not for nothing: it started when Egypt signed thepeace agreement with Israel. The enemies of the Egyptian regime call it a bribefor serving Israeli interests.

No country is more sensitive about its honor than Egypt. Its leadersregularly remind everybody - and, indeed, its foreign minister reminded TzipiLivni this week - that the Egyptian state has existed for 7000 years, and is notprepared to be lectured by Israel (which was not even there 60 years ago.)

Egypt lives in a painful contradiction: it sees itself as the cradle of humancivilization and the center of the Arab world, but it is a very poor country andneeds every dollar it can get. Hosni Mubarak's regime is totally dependent onthe United States, but desperately craves the respect of 70 million Egyptiansand hundreds of millions of other Arabs.

That demands subtlety, even finesse. The accumulated experience of thousandsof years has prepared the Egyptian diplomats for such a task. They never say"no", but "Yes, quite, but the moment is not appropriate" or"good idea, we shall consider it with utmost seriousness". Those whounderstand, understand. No wonder that Egyptian diplomats look upon theirunsophisticated Israeli counterparts with thinly veiled contempt.

Tzipi Livni entered this porcelain shop like an elephant.

WHY DID she do it? The political correspondents, most of whom are merelyreporters of political gossip, assume that the motive was personal: she spoke onthe eve of Ehud Barak's meeting with Mubarak. Her real aim was to spoil it forBarak.

Perhaps she saw it as an opportunity to polish her image. For weeks now, thesecurity establishment has been running a public relations campaign concerningthe arms in the Gaza Strip. Its agents in the media tell us every day about thequantities of arms and explosives that are flowing into the Strip from Egyptthrough the tunnels under the border. The Egyptians are accused of closing theireyes. Livni wanted to ride this crest.

Livni's problem is common to all of Israel: the inability and unwillingnessto see the point of view of the other side, especially if the other side isArab. (The other side has, of course, a similar problem.)

The Egyptians consider themselves the natural leaders of the Arab world.President Mubarak and his followers are very sensitive to the accusations oftheir enemies - especially the Muslim Brotherhood - that they are serving theIsraeli occupation at a time when Israel is starving the Gaza population andkilling their leaders. Mubarak has no wish to do anything against Hamas thatwould seem to confirm these charges.

It is quite possible that the Egyptian authorities would be unable to preventthe traffic even if they wanted to. Most of the smuggled items are unobtainablein the besieged Gaza Strip, from milk powder to cigarettes. The smugglers can dobusiness with the Sinai Bedouins or bribe the Egyptian policemen - who mostcertainly do not cherish the idea of stabbing their Arab brothers in the backwhile they are fighting against the Israeli occupation.

The Israeli public lives in a bubble. They cannot imagine that the samepeople who they know as "terrorists" are the heroes of the Arab world,that the detested "murderers" are the holy martyrs of the Arabs, thatthe "terrorism" is seen by the Arabs (and not only by them) as aheroic resistance to a monstrous occupation, that the "smugglers" areseen by the Arabs the same way as we saw "our fine boys" of thePalmach who smuggled arms under the noses of the British and risked their livesin order to break the blockade.

In the eyes of the Egyptians - and, indeed, of all Arabs - the Palestinianpeople are defending themselves against a brutal oppressor. The Palestinianmartyrs restore the honor of the entire Arab nation. Even the Egyptians whosupport Mubarak and believe that there is no choice but to cooperate with theAmericans and to keep the peace with Israel are torn between conflictingemotions.

If one does not understand the psychological and political dilemma of theEgyptian people, one is liable to do foolish things. And nothing could be morefoolish than the Israeli action against those returning from the Hajj last week.

THE PILGRIMAGE to Mecca is, as everybody knows, one of the five pillars ofIslam. A person starting on this voyage, with all its hardships, is muchrespected by all Muslims.

The million and a half inhabitants of the Gaza strip are prevented fromfulfilling this duty, unless they undergo a "security check" by theIsraeli army, often accompanied by harassment and humiliation. On Israel'sdemand, the Egyptians have closed the only border station that connects the GazaStrip with the outside world: the Rafah crossing.

Two thousand pilgrims from Gaza have broken this blockade and crossed theRafah border. It seems that the Egyptians cooperated, either openly or byclosing their eyes. Indeed, how can an Egyptian leader block the path of devoutMuslims on their way to fulfill one of the holiest duties? But the chiefs of theIsraeli security establishment were furious.

The problem became worse when the pilgrims were on their way back from Mecca.When their ferry reached the Sinai shore, Israel demanded that the Egyptiansblock the Rafah crossing and compel the pilgrims to return through Israeliterritory. This would have delivered Hamas members and other "wanted"people into the hands of the Israeli Security Service.

For the Egyptians, that was an altogether intolerable demand. If they hadacceded to it, they would have looked to the whole Muslim world likecollaborators who had turned over to the Jews pious Muslims returning from theholy Hajj.

The end was foreseeable: the Egyptians allowed all the pilgrims to returnthrough Rafah. The Israeli government had scored an own goal.

All this would not have happened if the Foreign Minister had persuaded hercolleagues to close their eyes and shut up. She didn't. They would not havelistened to her anyhow.

Something tells me that this white bird will not be flying very far.