The Great Game

Some weeks ago, something curious happened: Israel discovered that Iran isthe Great Satan.

It happened quite suddenly. There was no prior sensational news, no newdiscovery. As if by the order of a drill-sergeant, the whole Israeli phalanxchanged direction. All the politicians, all the generals, all the enlistedmedia, with the usual complement of professors-for-hire, - all of themdiscovered overnight that Iran is the immediate, real and terrible danger.

By wondrous coincidence, at exactly the same moment a ship was captured that,allegedly, carried Iranian arms to Arafat. And in Washington Shimon Peres, a manfor all seasons and the servant of all masters, accosted every passing diplomatand told him stories about thousands of Iranian missiles that have been given tothe Hizbullah. Yes, yes, Hizbullah (included by President Bush in the list of"terrorist organizations") is receiving horrible arms from Iran(included by President Bush in the "Axis of Evil") in order tothreaten Israel, the darling of the Congress.

Does this sound mad? Not at all. There is method in this madness.

On the face of it, the matter is easy to explain. America is still in a stateof fury after the Twin-Towers outrage. It has won a amazing victory inAfghanistan, hardly sacrificing a single American soldier. Now it stands,furious and drunk with victory, and does not know who to attack next. Iraq?North Korea? Somalia? The Sudan?

President Bush cannot stop now, because such an immense concentration ofmight cannot be laid off. The more so, as Bin-Laden has not been killed. Theeconomic situation has deteriorated, a giant scandal (Enron) is rocki ngWashington. The American public should not be left to ponder on this.

So here comes the Israeli leadership and shouts from the roof-tops: Iran isthe enemy! Iran must be attacked!

Who has made that decision? When? How? And most importantly - Where? Clearlynot in Jerusalem, but in Washington DC. An important component of the USadministration has given Israel a sign: Start a massive political offensive inorder to pressure the Congress, the media and American public opinion.

Who are these people? And what is their interest? A wider explanation isneeded.

The most coveted resource on earth is the giant oil-field in the Caspian Searegion, that competes in scale with the riches of Saudi Arabia. In 2010 it isexpected to yield 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil per day, in addition to 4850billion cubic feet of natural gas per year.

The United States is determined (a) to take possession of it, (b) toeliminate all potential competitors, (c) to safeguard the area politically andmilitarily, and (d) to clear a way from the oil-fields to the open sea.

This campaign is being led by a group of oil people, to which the Bush familybelongs. Together with the arms industry, this group got both George Bush seniorand George Bush junior elected. The President is a simple person, his mentalworld is shallow and his pronouncements are primitive, bordering on caricature,like a second-rate Western. That is good for the masses. But his handlers arevery sophisticated people indeed. It's they who guide the administration.

The Twin Towers outrage made their job much easier. Osama Bin Laden did notcomprehend that his actions serve American interests. If I were a believer inConspiracy Theory, I would think that Bin Laden is an American agent. Not beingone, I can only wonder at the coincidence.

Bush's "War on Terrorism" constitutes a perfect pretext for thecampaign planned by his handlers. Under the cover of this war, America has takentotal control over the three small Muslim nations near the oil reserves:Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The whole region is now completelyunder American political-military domination. All potential competitors -including Russia and China - have been pushed out.

For a long time, the Americans have been arguing among themselves about thebest route for piping this oil to the open sea. Routes that may be under Russianinfluence have been eliminated. The 19th century, deadly British-Russiancompetition, then called the "Great Game", is still going on betweenAmerica and Russia.

Until recently, the western route, leading to the Black Sea and Turkey,seemed most feasible, but the Americans did not like it very much, to say theleast. Russia is much too near.

The best route leads south, to the Indian Ocean. Iran was not evenconsidered, since it is governed by Islamic fanatics. So there remained thealternative route: from the Caspian Sea, through Afghanistan and the westernpart of Pakistan (called Beluchistan), to the Indian Ocean. To this end, theAmericans conducted, ever so quietly, negotiations with the Taliban regime. Theybore no fruit. Then the "War on Terrorism" was started, the USconquered all of Afghanistan and installed their agents as the new government.The Pakistani dictator, too, was bent to the American will.

If one looks at the map of the big American bases created for the war, one isstruck by the fact that they are completely identical to the route of theprojected oil pipeline to the Indian Ocean.

That would have been the end of the story, but the appetite grows with theeating. The Americans drew two lessons from the Afghani experience: (a) thatevery country can be subdued by sophisticated bombs, without putting anysoldiers in harm's way, and (b) that by military might and money America caninstall client governments anywhere.

And so a new idea came up in Washington: Why lay a long pipeline around Iran(through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan) if one can lay a much shorterpipeline through Iran itself? One has only to topple the Ayatullah regime andinstall a new pro-American government. In the past, that seemed impossible. Now,after the Afghani episode, it looks eminently practicable. One has only toprepare American public opinion and to acquire the support of the congress foran attack on Iran.

For this, Israel's good services are needed. It has an enormous influence inthe Congress and the media. It works like this: Israeli generals declare everyday that Iran is producing weapons of mass-destruction and threatens the JewishState with a second Holocaust. Sharon announces that the capture of the Iranianarms-ship proves Arafat is a part of the Iranian conspiracy. Peres tellseverybody that Iranian missiles threaten the whole world. Every day somenewspaper tells its readers that Bin Laden is in Iran or with the Hizbullah inLebanon.

President Bush knows how to reward those who serve him well. Sharon got afree hand to oppress the Palestinians, imprison Arafat, assassinate militantsand enlarge the settlements. It's a simple deal: You deliver the support of theCongress and the media, I deliver the Palestinians on a platter.

This could not happen if America was still in need of allies in Europe andthe Arab world. But in Afghanistan, the Americans learned that they don't needanybody anymore. They can spit in the eyes of the pitiful Arab regimes, that arealways begging for money, and disregard Europe altogether. Who needs thenegligible armies of Britain and Germany, when America alone is mightier thenall the armies of the world combined?

The idea of American-Israeli cooperation against Iran is not new for Sharon.On the contrary, in 1981, when he was just appointed Minister of Defense, heoffered the Pentagon a daring plan: in the event of Khomeini's demise, theIsraeli army would immediately occupy Iran, in order to forestall the SovietUnion. The IDF would turn the country over to the slow-moving Americans, oncethey arrived. For this purpose, the Pentagon would stockpile in advance the mostsophisticated arms in Israel, under American control, to be used in thisoperation.

The Pentagon did not accept the idea at that time. Now, the cooperation isbeing established against a different background.

What conclusions should we draw from all this?

First of all, that we shall be located on the frontline of this coming war.Beyond the exchange of curses between the "two PersianChiefs-of-Staff" (as the joke goes in Israeli command circles, alluding tothe fact that Shaul Mofaz was born in Iran), an Iranian reaction to an Americanassault may hurt us grievously. There are missiles. There are chemical andbiological weapons.

Second, that those of us who desire an Israeli-Palestinian peace cannot relyon America. Now everything depends on us alone, the Israelis and thePalestinians. Our blood is more precious than Caspian Sea oil. At least to us.

Uri Avnery lives in Israel. He has written extensively about the life andcareer of Ariel Sharon.