There are clear signs that the celebratory period of the coalition governmentin Pakistan is over and the regime under Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilaniis facing immense pressure from multiple sources. Prominent among these is theenduring militancy across the country and the concomitant failure to stem theprogression of entrenched forces of extremist Islam.
The first half of year 2008 has seen approximately 1,569 militancy-relatedfatalities across Pakistan (data till June 29). This includes 699 civilians and616 militants. By comparison, the first half of 2007 had witnessed approximately869 deaths, including 435 militants and 353 civilians.
The peace processes initiated by Islamabad in theaftermath of the elections and installation of the new government is now rapidlyunraveling, and reports now indicate that massive operations have been initiatedby the Army in the Bara area of the Khyber tribal region. Earlier, on June 25,2008, militants of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) killed 22 members of apro-government "peace committee" at Jandola near Tank (adjacent toSouth Waziristan) in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Tank DistrictCo-ordination Officer Barkatullah Marwat stated, "I can confirm that 22bullet-ridden bodies of those kidnapped by the Taliban three days ago wererecovered on Wednesday (June 25) near Jandola… Some of the dead were shot andsome had their throats slit." Claiming responsibility for the killings,Taliban spokesman Maulana Umar declared, "We have killed 22 and the fate ofthe remaining six will be decided later." He added, further, "thegovernment should not intervene in the current situation, otherwise peace talkswould be seriously undermined."
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Suspected militants also killed seven persons, including a leader of theruling Pakistan People’s Party, a tribal elder, and their family members, inaddition to destroying a Police station, a girls’ school and a state-ownedhotel in the Swat district of NWFP on June 26. In fact, on June 23, TTPmilitants had captured Jandola town in South Waziristan, after a gun-battle withpro-government tribesmen, in which six persons, including four tribesmen and twomilitants, were killed. Latest reports indicate that the Army has movedapproximately 3,000 troops into Jandola to evict the militants. According toGeneral Athar Abbas, the military spokesman, Security Forces (SFs) have clearedJandola of militants loyal to Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud.
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There is a fair amount of confusion within the government oncounter-terrorism. The NWFP Governor Owais Ahmad Ghani declared, on June 13,that the government would continue its dialogue with militants in the FederallyAdministered Tribal Areas (FATA) despite ‘enormous’ international pressure.However, on June 25, Prime Minister Gilani reportedly approved a militaryoperation to clear FATA of militants. Gilani approved the use of force during ahigh-level meeting that reviewed progress on the war on terrorism and the lawand order scenario in the NWFP and FATA. The meeting also reportedly decidedthat the government would continue negotiations with "local elders toisolate hardcore militants." The Chief of Army Staff would take the lead ondeciding when to employ military force, including the deployment of the FrontierCorps. An official statement later disclosed that the meeting decided to fight"terrorism and extremism" through a ‘multi-pronged strategy’:"The broad objective of this strategy will be to bring about peace,reconciliation and normalcy of life in the country and marginalise the hard coreterrorists, militants and criminal elements." The statement, at best,reflects the vagueness that now pervades the state.
Cornered by the militants, the government appears to befaltering, unsure whether to proceed with dialogue alone or follow a purelymilitary approach. While it retains the option to initiate military operationsat an opportune time, delays threaten to compound the situation, as furthercontradictions and complexities emerge. Islamabad should also be well aware ofthe omissions and commissions of the President Pervez Musharraf’s strategy inprosecuting the campaign against terrorism – and wary of treading the samepath, as appears to be the present case.
The confusion in strategy largely reflects the Gillani regime’smisconception – no different from its predecessor’s – that ‘talking tothe devil’ will yield rich dividends in the embattled country. Recent historyin Pakistan is replete with examples that unambiguously indicate thatappeasement only creates safe and significantly new spaces for terrorism.
At a certain level, the government remains substantially in denial. On June 20,the NWFP Senior Minister Bashir Ahmed Bilour told the Provincial Assembly thatthere were no Taliban in Peshawar and the provincial government would not holdtalks with local Taliban in other settled areas. "We do not accept Talibanexcept in Swat. Nor are we going to initiate dialogue with them," he toldthe House. However, Rehman Malik, Adviser to the Prime Minster on InteriorAffairs, stated on June 24 that the government was fully aware of the militancysituation in the NWFP and would "take proper action" within a week.Addressing the National Assembly, he declared that the situation in Peshawar wasnot critical: "The government is not sleeping and is aware of itsresponsibilities."
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On June 17, the Swat-based Taliban militants suspended contact with the NWFPgovernment to protest against the slow progress on a peace agreement theyentered into on May 21, 2008. Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan, stated, further,that "some elements were interfering in the peace process," as aresult of which the Taliban had decided to temporarily freeze communicationswith the provincial government. While this could be seen as a routine pressuretactic, it appeared to be working. Reports on June 20 indicated that the twosides resumed dialogue when the provincial Forests Minister Wajid Ali Khan‘secretly’ met Taliban leaders and assured them that their reservationswould be addressed. He met several Taliban leaders, including Ali Bakht, HajiMuslim Khan, Maulana Amin, Mahmood Khan and Nisar Khan, in the Deouli area ofSwat and asked them to continue the dialogue. The Taliban reportedly complainedthat militants were still in prison and that the Army had not withdrawn from thearea.
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Sources indicate that, among the issues which the Taliban are adamant on, arethe withdrawal of the military, the release of detained Taliban operatives, andthe return of arms and ammunition seized from the militants. The Army, still areluctant supporter of the peace deals, is not yet ready to cede space. There isalso some opposition, both within the Army and the political administration, onthe release of detained Taliban operatives. Further, Islamabad is aware thatacceding to these demands would ensure that that the Taliban /al Qaeda combinehave de jure control and full freedom of movement and activities across FATA andthe NWFP.
Recognizing that the state of play in NWFP was now critical, Parliamentarianswarned the government that the country might lose one of its provinces if it didnot consider the situation in NWFP seriously. Speaking in the National Assembly,Maulana Fazlur Rehman, chief of his own faction of the Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Islamand a patron of the Taliban, declared that it was a matter of months before theNWFP was no longer part of Pakistan. He also criticised Malik’s statements,arguing that the government would further aggravate the situation through theuse of force. Rehman’s concern is not completely misplaced. Reports indicatethat "these days Taliban fighters don't sneak in to Peshawar... They arrivein broad daylight on the back of pick-up trucks, brandishing automatic weapons,and threatening owners of music stores to close down." Mehmood Shah, aformer tribal region security chief, said "This speaks of a complete lackof control by the government over the situation." Syed Saleem Shahzadwrites that "there is now a belief in security circles that should theywant to, the Taliban could take the Peshawar Valley."
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A security plan is, however, being designed to protectPeshawar from attacks by the Taliban. Around 3,000 security force personnel areto be deployed to guard the city and 26 security posts would be set up tomonitor militant activities. An unnamed senior police official had earlierstated that Police had told the government it could not control militancy on itsown and needed the assistance of the Frontier Constabulary, the Frontier Corpsand the Army.
Ambiguous peace agreements initiated by Islamabad and the NWFP government arecurrently allowing the Taliban, al Qaeda and allied jihadi groups to regroup,build up their strength and consolidate. Having secured immense gains fromprevious pacts, the Taliban/al Qaeda combine are now pushing for a furtherconsolidation which would not only ensure rapid geographical expansion, butforce further capitulation on the state, which remains, regrettably, a prisonerof its own vacillations.
While there have been earlier reports about desertionsamong the besieged Pakistan armed forces fighting the Islamists, classified USdocuments now indicate that the Frontier Corps has been heavily infiltrated andinfluenced by the Taliban. There are "box loads" of reports of thetroops joining militants in attacks on coalition forces, according to theclassified US 'after-action' reports, compiled following clashes onPakistan-Afghan border. "The United States and Nato have substantialinformation on this problem. It's taking place at a variety of places along theborder with the Frontier Corps giving direct and indirect assistance," TheObserver quoted an unnamed American official as saying. "The USdocuments reportedly describe the direct involvement of Frontier Corps troops inattacks on the Afghan National Army and coalition forces, and also aboutdetailed attacks launched so close to Frontier Corps outposts that Pakistanico-operation with the Taliban is assumed."
Pakistan’s incapacity to prosecute the war on terror in the FATA and NWFP dueto disastrous deals with the militants has also augmented the already giganticterrorist problem in neighbouring Afghanistan. In fact, Afghanistan PresidentHamid Karzai threatened to send Afghan troops across the border to fight Talibanmilitants within Pakistan. Accusing Pakistan of sheltering most of the militantsinvolved in recent incidents in the Garmser District of Helmand Province, hetold a Press Conference that Afghanistan had the right to self-defence and,since militants cross over from Pakistan "to come and kill Afghans and killcoalition troops, it exactly gives us the right to do the same." Inresponse, the PM’s advisor, Rehman Malik, warned the "borderingcountry" against launching attacks inside Pakistan, adding, "Otherwisewe will also launch action." Meanwhile, on June 26, Pakistan rejectedAfghan accusations that its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was behind anassassination attempt against President Hamid Karzai in April 2008.
Islamabad’s failure to arrive at an effectivecounter-terrorist strategy has, unsurprisingly though rather late, invitedcriticism from the US. US Defence Secretary Robert Gates stated in Washington onJune 27 that Pakistan's failure to put pressure on Taliban forces on thecountry's border with Afghanistan had fueled a rise in violence. A 40 per centspike in violence in east Afghanistan in the first five months of 2008 "isa matter of concern, of real concern, and I think that one of the reasons thatwe're seeing the increase... is more people coming across the border from thefrontier area," Gates said. He noted, further, "the ability of theTaliban and other insurgents to cross that border and not being under anypressure from the Pakistani side of the border is clearly a concern." Healso said cross-border infiltration and violence had increased in the past fewmonths after peace deals were negotiated with Taliban and other militants.According to Gates, "What has happened is that, as various agreements havebeen negotiated or were in the process of negotiation with various groups by thePakistani government, there was the opportunity – the pressure was taken offof these people and these groups… And they've therefore been more free to beable to cross the border and create problems for us." Earlier, on June 10,the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen had declared thatany future terrorist attack against US interests would most likely be carriedout by militants based in FATA. He noted that tribal groups with ties to alQaeda in the FATA represent the worst security threat to the US.
Further, the US is now finding it difficult to initiate and sustain its ownagenda in Pakistan. The problem partly lies in the fact that it does not have acompletely acquiescent government or an obliging Army establishment inIslamabad. Adding to the complexity is the status of the besieged and weigheddown President Musharraf who, contrary to what a lot of people anticipated,refuses to ‘go quietly into the night’.
Amid growing apprehensions in Washington, Kabul and elsewhere on the mountingdisorder in Pakistan, Islamabad may be pushed into launching selective, if notlarge-scale, military operations in the NWFP and FATA. Given the prevailingdynamic, however, this will only raise violence even further – even as anyeffort to hammer out a negotiated deal with the extremists offers no relief.Pakistan, it appears, remains caught in a cleft stick, with no avenues ofescape.
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Kanchan Lakshman is Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management;Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict & Resolution. Courtesy,the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal
