Done Deal?

Who would have imagined that the world’s ultimate cowboy would actually clearthe nuclear bush for India with his simple tools -- admiration for democracy andcourage to go against the grain? President George Bush, reviled by largesections of world opinion for the Iraq War and domestic opinion for curbingcivil liberties, got a hero’s welcome in India, where love for America carriesa sure burden. Although confined to small audiences and restricted fromaddressing the Parliament, Bush, nevertheless, managed to cut through decades ofsuspicion and strike a genuine chord with the Indian establishment. SeniorIndian policymakers, Prime Minister on down, believe he is honest about changingUS policy, whether for reasons of India being a large market and a democracy orbecause of American geopolitical calculations is less important. In the end, ifIndia gains, the big picture is clear.

The Indian people, politically savvy and smart as whips, gave their own balancedverdict -- they want friendship with America but they also recognise that the USis a "bully."  It is this duality that Indian negotiators must keep inmind as they meet the American juggernaut, a well-oiled,spread-across-all-spectrums machine which operates effectively on issues ofstrategic importance. It offers a big prize in the shape of a nuclear deal andwe think India is a member of the nuclear club but the ground starts shifting inspeeches, testimonies and interviews by US officials over time.

This was recently evident in Bush’s speech to Asia Society given justbefore his passage to India. He listed India as a recipient country for nuclearfuel under the new US initiative called the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership,denying India the right to reprocess spent fuel. The status change from July 18,2005 when India was acknowledged as a country with "advanced nucleartechnology" and presumed responsible and trustworthy enough to deal withplutonium and uranium to a stage where it can’t be trusted to reprocess fuelis worrisome.

For those in the US who say that Washington has "rewarded" India and signeda sweetheart deal must only look at what their negotiators have extracted. Theprime prize is India’s Iran policy. India was asked to vote against Iran orwatch the nuclear deal "die" in the US Congress by US ambassador DavidMulford. His interview, disowned by the State Department, was an example of theage-old tactic of maximising leverage in public while negotiating a difficultdeal. The Iran-India gas pipeline may not see the light of day, just as theAmericans want. Condoleezza Rice had expressed US opposition early last year asshe presented her plan for the grand engagement with India. The price was clear.

As India begins negotiations on safeguards with the IAEA, more curbs andcontrols might  be exerted as a price for clearing the deal through the USCongress.  India must make its own assessment of the level of difficulty ofpassing the nuclear deal through the US Congress. The highly-paid lobbyistsemployed by New Delhi must produce some good studies and analyses of votingpatterns, interests and leaning of members of Congress. The US-India BusinessCouncil has employed its own lobbying firm to help push the agreement through.It will be a test for old India hands such as former US ambassador Frank Wisnerwho must help deliver this baby. Wisner has been the helm of USIBC for years butnow the time has come for the personal and organisational muscle to be tested.The nuclear deal will determine the level of the future strategic partnershipbetween India and the United States. One may recall that it was Winser whoreportedly flashed satellite photos of nuclear test preparations at Pokhran infront of Narasimha Rao and scared him into not testing.

Although the Indian scientific establishment has declared the civilian nucleardeal a success and something it "can live with," the opposition in theUnited States is intense. Editorial writers and columnists in major USnewspapers have raged against the idea, primarily on grounds that it breaks theold framework of non-proliferation which has stood the test of time and that itmight encourage other countries to flirt with the same idea. The USnon-proliferation crowd, mobilised as never before, has worked overtime to"brief" editorial boards across the country, winning not one but twoeditorials against the deal in the New York Times. The voice of Americanliberalism denounced the deal as "misbegotten," and demanded the US Congresskill it. Bush might as well have put a red ribbon around the deal and mailed itto Iran as a gift, the paper said, spilling with biting sarcasm.

Congressman Edward Markey, a Democrat, unable to scuttle the deal, has taken tostoking Cold War fears of annihilation and doom. Recalling John F. Kennedy’swarning that "Every man, woman and child lives under a nuclear sword ofDamocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at anymoment by accident or miscalculation or by madness," Markey implied that theIndo-US nuclear deal "exponentially" increases the likelihood that such a"catastrophic event" will, in fact, occur.

Phew.

Markey conveniently ignores Kennedy’s call for "abolishing" theweapons, something where the US track record is an "F," through bothDemocratic and Republican presidencies. An adamant and arrogant refusal by theUS establishment to embrace "no first use" even against non-nuclear weaponstates while racing to make newer, smaller, more sophisticated nuclear warheads,has not helped the cause of abolishing nuclear weapons. It is pointless torepeat how India is not Iran, not Pakistan, nor North Korea -- a reality thathas seeped through Condi Rice and her team but not the issue-less Democrats onCapitol Hill who must avenge their supplication to the Bush machine on Iraq byattacking his other initiatives, even good ones.

The Bush visit brought India one step closer to the final prize but there isstill a long lap to Capitol Hill and further.