The Vale Lifts, Partially

If there had remained any lingering doubts over the fairness and transparency of the elections in Jammu and Kashmir, they have been dispelled by its results. With the counting having come to an end, the National Conference, with only 28 out of 87 seats, has been delivered a crushing defeat. In the rest of India, the defeat of the incumbent government is now a commonplace event. But in Kashmir, it is akin to a political earthquake. In the past 51 years, there have been only two elections in the state that have not been rigged. All of them, predictably, returned National Conference governments. The two exceptions were the elections of 1977 and 1983 in which 74 and 73 per cent of the people of the Valley cast their vote. But those elections too were won by the National Conference, the first under a resuscitated Sheikh Abdullah and the second immediately after his death under his son Farooq. This is the very first time that Kashmiris have been able to change a government by using the ballot.

But voting the National Conference out is only half the battle to restore peace and establish a free, working democracy in the state. The other half is to create a government that will be responsive to the Kashmiri people's most deeply felt needs and aspirations. The distribution of seats between the various contending political parties and groups suggests that this will not be easy. The second-largest party in the state is the Congress, which has won 20 seats, mostly in Jammu. Close behind it is the newly-formed People's Democratic Party (PDP), led nominally by former home minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed but in reality by his daughter Mehbooba Mufti. The PDP has secured 16 seats. There are also 13 independents, many of whom are actually rebel Hurriyat candidates disguised as independents. It is thus apparent that no party can stake a claim to forming the next government on its own. Any claimant will have to form a coalition to do so.

As the largest single party in the state, the National Conference can still make a bid to form a government, and ask for time to work out a viable coalition. But its leader, Omar Abdullah, who lost his own seat at Ganderbal, has already ruled this out. He has done so because, as the decisively rejected incumbent, its moral claim to make the effort is non-existent. In theory, the mantle could fall upon the Congress. But since it too has virtually no presence in the Kashmir valley, its credentials for leading such a coalition, as opposed to being a part of one, are shaky to say the least. That leaves the PDP.

All those who are familiar with Kashmir politics know that this is the only party in the fray today that can make a reasonable claim to represent Kashmiri ethnic sentiment. A PDP-led government could, therefore, provide the focus for this sentiment that the National Conference has forfeited. The PDP's hands are almost certainly going to be strengthened in the coming days by the independents, a majority of whom will join it to form a coalition. In theory, therefore, it is possible for the PDP to head a coalition of as many as 38 mlas. This would be just six short of a majority.

The PDP can get this support by inviting the Congress to join the coalition. It is also possible that following its defeat, the National Conference will split and that nine or more of its members will join the PDP-led coalition. But if the PDP wants to serve the best interests of the Kashmiris, it will do well to avoid both of these arrangements. Forming a coalition with the Congress will open it to precisely the same accusation, of having got in bed with New Delhi, that Farooq Abdullah faced when he formed a coalition with the Congress in 1987, and when he repeated his mistake by joining the United Front and the nda during his latest term in office.On the other hand, accepting a breakaway group from the National Conference will leave the PDP vulnerable to the charge that, to it, as to those that preceded it, power is an end in itself and not a means to an end.

The best course for the PDP to follow will be to form a coalition with as many independents as it can bring into its fold and solicit the Congress' support from the outside. Some understanding on these lines may already exist. Such a government will not be as stable as a formal coalition, or one formed by absorbing breakaway elements from the National Conference, but this may prove a blessing in disguise. Kashmir's, and India's, interests will be best served if the PDP uses its time in power to end the targeting of former militants by the Special Operations Group of the Kashmir Police, release the several hundred prisoners who are currently being held in jail on flimsy charges, free the prisoners who are held under POTA, reduce the presence of the security forces wherever that is possible without endangering security, and get the Unified Command in the Valley to adopt a more humane approach towards Kashmiris who have been forced by the terrorists to collaborate with them. Such measures will go a long way towards restoring the rule of law to the state.

Once that is done, the PDP would do well to pre-empt the inevitable rise of anti-incumbent sentiment and to go in for an early election to strengthen its mandate. A fresh election, say two years down the line, will also give separatist political parties belonging to the Hurriyat another chance to join the political mainstream. That should be the ultimate goal of both the PDP and the central government in the coming years.