Riddle Of The Sphinx

Battered by rebellion within the ranks, public image dented by her abortive bid for prime ministership, Sonia resumed the persona of the ice queen that had served her so well during the P.V. Narasimha Rao years. She retired behind the ramparts of 10, Janpath - and left the Congress in an untenable position.

Her resignation after the three expelled cwc members touched off the rebellion may have brought the Congress crawling on its collective belly to her. But even if all the queen's men have their way and Sonia returns, there's simply no putting Humpty-Dumpty back together again.

If Sonia resumes the reins - which Congress workers regard as inevitable - she will vindicate those who dismissed her resignation as histrionics and suffer a further loss of credibility. If she does not and withdraws entirely, the Congress loses the face around which it had built its election campaign and hopes of victory. Either way, the damage is irreversible and the party is likely to suffer a decisive split, post- if not pre-polls.

There's a third, if unlikely, possibility: if Sonia campaigns whole-heartedly for the party, gets sympathy votes and a substantial mandate, she could still be its prime ministerial aspirant whether or not she is Congress president. (Making good her promise not to stand idly by, she will campaign for the party in Goa later this week.) Or she could take the wind out of everyone's sails by being the party's star campaigner - but turning down the PM's chair.

But the Congress' main plank of 'vote Congress, vote stability' has taken a beating: in public perception, if Sonia can't keep her own party united, she can hardly make good on her promise to provide stable government. Pawar could well end up actualising his prediction of a fractured mandate.

The cumulative impact of the revolt by the three leaders is likely to be out of proportion to their local clout. Sangma, for one, may carry only the North-east with him, but his tenure as Lok Sabha speaker earned him goodwill and a national image. The Congress will have a hard time countering the countrywide effect of his defection.

On record, Congress leaders dismiss Pawar's defection as being of no importance to electoral prospects.Comparisons are drawn with the exit of Babu Jagjivan Ram in 1977 and Arjun Singh nearly two decades later. But Pawar, they admit privately, is no Arjun Singh. After his bitter experience of quitting the party in the '70s and then returning in the '80s, Pawar made it a point to consolidate his position in Maharashtra - regardless of how much time he spent at the Centre.

The danger of a split intensifies if the new front proposed by Pawar & Co and formally announced on May 21 emerges as a viable alternative. That disgruntled Congressmen, particularly those denied tickets, will trickle towards him even before the elections is inevitable. No immediate accretion to Pawar's ranks is expected, given the charged atmosphere in the Congress, but the likelihood increases as elections draw closer. If the party remains leaderless, or chooses a lightweight leader acceptable to 'madam', the process could speed up.

Third Front leaders see the move as 'a big window of opportunity' to revive a non-Congress, non-bjp formation. For small parties opposed to the Congress but uncomfortable with the bjp, Pawar represents the nucleus of a renewed third alternative, all but wiped out in the bi-polar scenario which followed naturally from the Congress resurgence.

Prima facie, the bjp stands to gain from a divided Congress. On the other hand, Pawar has hijacked its main poll plank and is openly eyeing the bjp's allies. If the bjp fails to keep its flock together, and its constituents desert the National Democratic Alliance, the party suffers. That Pawar seems to be charting a course which is basically anti-bjp does not gel with the charge by a section of the Congress that the rebel leader is hand-in-glove with the Hindutva forces. Indeed, Pawar's front in his own words would be comprised of 'people having the Congress line of thinking'.

While Third Front leaders say it's too early to speculate, they admit the scenario is not improbable: Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee had already been sounded out and indeed, was the first to welcome Pawar's move. The Samajwadi Party's response was equally enthusiastic, and there is also the possibility of an alliance with G.S. Tohra and the bsp in Punjab. The Telegu Desam Party could be crucial; if Chandrababu Naidu were to commit support, others like Lok Shakti, a substantial part of the Janata Dal and part of the Biju Janata Dal would follow suit.

Although the dmk has already committed itself to the bjp, third front leaders hope it's not too late for it to draw back. Even if it doesn't, aiadmk leader J. Jayalalitha might convert her fondness for Pawar into an alliance. Congress prospects in Maharashtra, UP, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu would be damaged. Given its virtual non-existence in Bihar, it might have a hard time bettering its tally. The cpi, cpi(m) and Laloo Yadav's rjd have reiterated their support to a Sonia-led Congress, but if the party doesn't perform well in the elections, this may not hold good. A poor performance would also lay the Congress open to a post-electoral split.

Small wonder Congressmen are desperate to coax Sonia out of her prolonged sulk. 'What did Pawar expect? That she would get the votes and hand him the prime minister's chair?' asks cwc member and Mahila Congress chief Ambika Soni. 'Racist pigs,' was how Congress secretary Mani Shankar Aiyar described the rebels. The rebellion, contrary to cwc members' indignant claims of it being 'a bolt from the blue', had been building for months. Perhaps the first spark was struck on the day Sonia Gandhi took over as Congress president, keeping the entire cwc standing for 45 minutes in the tiny, ill-lit ante-chamber adjoining the cubby-hole occupied by her secretary, Vincent George.It was not the last time they would experience such cavalier treatment. 'Hamay apni aukaad dikha di (she showed us how little we were worth),' recalls Anwar.

Incredibly, with insurrection brewing right under its nose, 10, Janpath chose to ignore it. Senior Congress leaders can hardly plead ignorance of Sangma's disenchantment with the leadership; on a visit to his home constituency of Tura in the first week of May, he had laid his cards on the table. On May 6 - 10 days before the cwc meeting a rival briefed 10, Janpath on Sangma's activities.

Pawar, regardless of his public statements endorsing Sonia, had consistently maintained in private that her becoming prime minister would spell the 'end of the Congress'. He had pointed out that it would strengthen communal forces by giving them a stick with which to beat the party. As PM, she would find it difficult to take crucial decisions - on the ctbt, for example - for fear of being accused of truck with western powers. To make matters worse, Sonia struck at Pawar in Maharashtra, piqued by his failure to ensure the election of her nominee, R.D. Pradhan, to the Rajya Sabha. She issued show-cause notices to his supporters and installed a strident Pawar-baiter as mpcc president.

Sources close to Sangma say that he had been deeply anguished by the party's wishy-washy stand over attacks on minorities. Sonia's 'soft Hindutva' line and her visits to temples in what seemed a self-conscious attempt to distance herself from her Christian roots in the wake of the Sangh's campaign cut him to the quick. It didn't help that she sidelined him post-Pachmarhi. He'd done a good job heading the task force aimed at reviving the Congress; its report was accepted, commended and then consigned to the dust-heap.

The tribal leader made up his mind after the fall of the bjp government; when it became clear beyond a shadow of doubt that Sonia wanted to be prime minister, very much so. He had drafted a letter to Sonia addressing the issues of inner-party democracy and her foreign origins. It was Anwar who persuaded Sangma to wait, pointing out that the letter would carry more weight if all three signed it. The three had little in common, apart from a shared discomfort with the leadership. Anwar had given Pawar a hard time during Sitaram Kesri's stewardship and Sangma would have preferred Manmohan Singh to Pawar in a prime ministerial contest.

Sonia, belatedly realising how much she needed the Maratha leader and how badly he could damage her, had tried to mollify him by appointing him as head of the party's strategy committee. She relied heavily on the coterie's assessment that Pawar was a compulsive waffler; having failed to take on P.V. Narasimha Rao and Kesri, he would hardly take her on.

But for Pawar, it was now or never. The leadership of a Rao or Kesri - both lacking in charisma - could always have been challenged. Once Sonia became prime minister, that option would be closed forever - the dynasty could never be dislodged. To deliver Maharashtra to her on a platter went against the grain. For Pawar, it was either South Block or being an ordinary parliamentarian. Sonia wouldn't allow him the first and he didn't need her for the second.

The three leaders met before the cwc meeting on May 15 and decided that if the swadeshi-videshi issue was raised, they would go at it hammer and tongs. If not, they would wait. As it happened, R.K. Dhawan did raise the issue, wanting to draw up an effective strategy to combat it.

Accustomed to the servile acquiescence of senior Congress leaders, Sonia was unprepared when the diminutive Sangma - a great favourite with her mother-in-law, Indira Gandhi - rounded on her in the meeting: 'I don't know you. I don't know your background. He (Arjun Singh) does not know you. How can the people of India know you?' That she should actually be asked for a document clarifying her status was unthinkable. Pawar was silent for much of the three-hour meeting. As Sangma railed and her loyalists put up a feeble defence, uneasy glances were directed at Pawar. When he spoke, all doubts were put to rest: 'People are asking how a country of 980 million people cannot produce a prime minister and they are right.'

What particularly hurt Sonia was that not one of her loyalists came up with a strong defence at the May 15 meeting. Now, though, the queen's men claim that she has progressed from a sense of anger, to hurt, to forgiveness. She continues to meet people - more now than ever before - and does not hesitate to communicate her sense of hurt. Indeed, they claim, Sonia had argued against the expulsion of the three offenders and was deeply concerned at the attempted (abortive) suicides and hunger strikes outside her home.

The Congress spin doctors orchestrated a storm of protest; office-bearers and chief ministers were asked to put in their papers, pcc chiefs and MPs were told to arrive with supporters, Congress workers encouraged to camp outside 10, Janpath. While threats of self-immolation and suicide came to nought, a funereal-faced party spokesperson Ajit Jogi observed: 'How to make her understand that people are ready to give up their lives?'

While cwc members and Congressmen considered close to Sonia maintained that she was adamant, they insisted that she would 'have to' come back. Certainly, Sonia has given them cause to hope. For one, she and other Congressmen refuse to address the issue raised by Pawar & Co: the question of prime ministership. She neither resigned as cpp chairperson, nor clarified that she would not be prime minister. 'We did not ask her to resign as party president,' pointed out Sangma.

The irony is that if she had done so ten days ago, the crisis could have been avoided. This is evident from the fact that the question of a successor is discussed only in hushed whispers, behind closed doors. Pranab Mukherjee, as senior general secretary, presides over the cwc in her absence. On May 20, as he arrived for the cwc meeting at which the three rebels were expelled, party workers warned him against staking his claim. They recalled that Mukherjee had floated his own party in 1984.

Manmohan Singh, who has maintained a low profile since the debacle over government formation, is emerging as a consensus candidate. The only mass leader remaining after Pawar's exit, Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijay Singh, has also made the appropriate noises of support for Sonia but is disliked by the coterie.

As if to pre-empt a takeover bid by Arjun Singh, feelings are running high against the coterie. The slogan of 'Barbadi ke zimmedaar/ Pradhan, Arjun, Fotedar' has been taken up with a vengeance. Even senior party leaders hold the three responsible for 'forcing Pawar out'. If the coterie continues in control of 10, Janpath, further defections to the rebel ranks are probable.

Much depends on Pawar's fortunes in Maharashtra. If his front successfully replaces the Congress, the gamble will have paid off. And a long-standing score settled.Three weeks ago, questioned about Sonia's new-found, opportunistic reliance on him, Pawar cracked his trademark enigmatic smile: 'Don't provoke me...when a Maratha goes after someone, he does not leave him.' Or her.