What is the real aim of your report and how have the different governments In South Asia reacted so far, especially in Pakistan?
The purpose of this report is to bring awareness to the leaders of South Asia that they are losing out in the race of development as we approach the 21st century. Unless they start investing in their people, the results in South Asia will be devastating. If South Asia slowly disintegrates, it will not just be a catastrophe for its teeming millions, it will be a global tragedy as well. The scale of this human tragedy will be far more extensive than anything witnessed in the Somalias, Rwandas and Burundis in recent years. The report reveals shocking statistics and many disturbing graphs; but its real aim is not to shock but to persuade policy-makers to take corrective action. We in South Asia are emerging as the most deprived region in the world while being the poorest, the most illiterate, the most malnourished and the least gender sensitive-region in the world.
What is your own perception of the changing economic realities in Asia?
My own perception is that the economic frontier is slowly moving from the east to South Asia. Initially, the Japanese developed their human resource and 85 per cent of the social capital came from human resources. Then this frontier travelled to the east where we saw the emergence of the Asian tigers. They invested $150 per person per year in education and health, combining it with low wages which took them into high technology and international markets. From a small start, these Asian 'Tigers now have an input of 25 per cent in the global export market. When China took over and invested in higher education, high skills and low wages. My perception is that in the next frontier is South Asia. If we can position ourselves we have a chance, but no feudal and illiterate society can become an industrial tiger. This is our experience.
What do the comparative studies on India and Pakistan show in areas like health, education and other social indicators?
In economic terms, according to World Bank statistics, Pakistan's per capita income is about 70 per cent higher than India's. But we are behind in health, education and enrolment and population growth. India has a population growth of 1.9 per cent while Pakistan's is 3 per cent. Even Bangladesh has overtaken Pakistan with a $2 billion garment industry when they do not even have a cotton crop. While Sri Lanka is comparable in terms of per capita income, Pakistan's adult literacy rate is 36 per cent compared to 90 per cent in Sri Lanka. Over two-thirds of Pakistan's adults are illiterate. Pakistan's social and human indicators make dismal reading as 36 million people live in absolute poverty. In India we saw an increase in the adult literacy rate and public expenditure on education. The per capita food production also increased by 23 per cent.
What are the reasons for disparity in both India and Pakistan?
The primary reason why economic growth has not had an impact on the ordinary Indian is India's backwardness in human development--132 million people have no access to basic health facilities, 226 million lack access to safe drinking water, about half of India's adult population is illiterate and about 70 per cent of its people lack basic sanitation facilities. The largest illiterate population in the world is in India. It has almost 2.5 times more illiterate people than the whole of the sub-Saharan Africa.
Also one-third of the absolute poor in the 'World live in India. In Pakistan we see a low human development level and a huge population growth rate. School enrolment is only 37 per cent, while two-thirds of its total adult population and 77 per cent of its adult women are illiterate. Pakistan does not have a proper income distribution with no meaningful land reforms. There is no income tax on agriculture income and a reliance on indirect rather than direct taxation. Pakistan spends less than 5 per cent of its GNP on education and health services.
You have spoken very strongly on the defence budgets of India and Pakistan. Can the two countries really divert their investment from security to human development?
India and Pakistan together combine to use $14 billion every year on defence. This is an underestimate as expenditure is shown under other headings. If you take the real purchase, it comes to $50 billion every year. If they can reduce this defence expenditure, they can finance their entire social agenda in the next 15 years and can fulfil all the five services with an additional $8 billion coming from peace dividends. No nation can take unilateral action on this front but the rising military spending discussed in the report is not an indictment but an urgent appeal for a new detente in this region. There has been an enormous cost of past confrontations. We spend $28 per capita while India spends $10 per capita.
India should take the initiative since it is the bigger country. We must find a multilateral solution. For the first time we have talked about transparency in the defence budgets which is missing from both Indian and Pakistani defence budgets. India under-reported Rs 87 billion which was listed under different heads. Both India and Pakistan don't show their defence budgets on nuclear programmes, leading to the fact that the real burden of defence spending is much higher than what is officially shown by these two countries.
But on many occasions India says it has to look at its security concerns not only from a smaller state like Pakistan but a nation like China also; hence the build-up.
Basically India has nuclear weapons which are a deterrent vis-a-vis China. Before 1972, when we did not have the nuclear deterrent both countries went to war three times. Ever since then, India and Pakistan have not gone to war and nuclear weapons have served as a deterrent. Now we need to seek more understanding with each other on things like 'no first use' of nuclear weapons etc. The problem of Pakistan and India is regional and not global.
HUMAN DISTRESS INDEX
INDIA
EDUCATION
· 291 million adults Illiterate
· 45 million children were out of primary schools in 1995
HEALTH
· 135 million people denied access to primary heath care, 226 million without safe drinking water, and 640 million without basic sanitation facilities
· 88% of all pregnant women aged between 15 and 49 suffer from anaemia
FOOD AND NURITION
· 62 million malnourished children under the age of five
DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCE
· In mega-cities like Mumbai, 57% of the population lives in slums
CHILDREN
· Nearly one-third of children under 16 are forced into child labour
WOMEN
· In low income families in rural Punjab, 7 times more girls (21%) suffer malnutrition than boys
POVERTY AND INCOME
· 44% of the total population lives in absolute poverty
· Nearly one-third of the world's poor live in India
MILITARY BURDEN
· India was ranked first in arms imports but 147th in per capita income between 1988 and 1992
PAKISTAN
EDUCATION
· Over two-thirds adult population illiterate
· 17 million children were out of primary school in 1995
HEALTH
· 60 million people do not have access to heath facilities; 67 million people without safe drinking water; and 89 million people deprived of basic sanitation facilities
FOOD AND NURUTION
· There are 740,000 child deaths a year, half of them linked to malnutrition
DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCE
· The population growth rate of around 3% per annum is the highest in South Asia. UN projections predict Pakistan will emerge as the third most populous country in the world by 2050 AD
CHILDREN
· One-half of primary children drop out before reaching grade 5
WOMEN
· Against 100 males, only 16 females are economically active -the lowest ratio in the SAARC region
· In the age group of one to four years, the female mortality rate is 12% higher than the male
POVERTY AND INCOME
· 36 million people live in absolute poverty
· More than half of the cultivable land is in holdings of 50 acres and above, in the hands of big landlords
MILITARY BURDEN
· There are nine soldiers for every doctor and three soldiers for every two teachers.
Human Development Vs Arms Race
SOUTH Asia is fast emerging as the poorest, the most illiterate, the most malnourished, the least gender-sensitive-indeed, the most deprived region in the world. Yet it continues to make more investment in arms than in the education and health of its people. The report Human Development in South Asia presents some startling facts:
The per capita GNP of South Asia ($309 in 1993) is lower than any other region in the world. Over 500 million people survive below the absolute poverty line. While South Asia contains 22 per cent of the world's population, it produces only 1.3 per cent of the world's income. Nearly 40 per cent of the world's poor live in South Asia. The adult literacy rate (48 per cent) in the region is the lowest in the world. Its share (46 per cent) of the world's illiterates is double its share of the world's people. And it beats sub-Saharan Africa for malnourished children, besides defying the global biological norm, with only 94 women for every 100 men (instead of the 106 in the rest of the world), so that 74 million women are simply 'missing'.
About 260 million people lack access to even rudimentary health facilities; 337 million lack safe drinking water; 830 million have no access to basic sanitation facilities; and over 400 million people go hungry every day. But South Asia contains two of the largest armies in the world. It's the only region where military spending (as a proportion of GNP) has gone up since 1987.
(The graphs are all taken from the report on human development.)
