Hu's China - VI

In the Chinese perspective, a major success of China's internationalrelations during the first tenure of President Hu Jintao as the Party Secretary was the close relations established with African countries in order to tap theirenergy resources and markets for Chinese goods and the China-Africa summit heldin 2006.

Two more international events of even greater significance in their eyes arescheduled to take place during his second tenure. The first will be the BeijingOlympics of August,2008, and the second will be Expo-2010, an ambitiousinternational trade fair, which is to be held in Shanghai in 2010. Presently,much of the energy of the Party and the Government  is devoted to makingthe Olympics a spectacular success, which, they hope, will enhance the image ofChina in the eyes of the international community and the image of the partyleadership in the eyes of their people. Any mishap in the handling of theOlympics could damage the standing of not only Mr.Hu and Mr.Wen Jiabo, the PrimeMinister, but also the entire Standing Committee of the Party Politburo, whichwas elected at the recent 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),

3. Even while working with determination for making a success  of theOlympics, the Chinese have already  started thinking of ways of making Expo2010 an equally spectacular success. As they go ahead with the preparations forthe Olympics, three concerns keep bothering them:
 

• Will Western human rights activists try to organise a boycott of the Olympics similar to the boycott of the 1980 Moscow Olympics by the Western countries in protest over the intervention of Soviet troops in Afghanistan? It is in this context that the human rights situations in Darfur in Sudan and  Myanmar keep worrying them, because of their close involvement in both countries. While there is little likelihood of the Darfur situation  providing a handle to the critics of China in the Western world, if the situation in Myanmar deteriorates badly in the months before the Olympics, this would definitely provide a handle to the critics of China interested in spoiling the Olympics. The Chinese were rattled by the recent demonstration of Buddhist monk power in Myanmar and the dissemination of dramatic images of that power through the Internet and world TV channels. Worried over its possible copy-cat effect on the monks of Tibet, they quickly nudged the military junta in Myanmar to come out of its diplomatic isolation and be more responsive to the concerns of the international community. They should have been relieved when the Junta effectively closed its Internet servers and prevented images of monk power being flashed across the world. The Chinese would be closely monitoring the situation in Myanmar in order to make sure it does not come in the way of a grand Olympics of their dreams.
• Would there be threats to the Olympics not only from Al Qaeda and its associates, but also from the Tibetan activists, the Uighurs, the Falun Gong and others?
• Could China face a situation similar to what South Korea faced after the 1988 Seoul Olympics when the relaxation of restrictions on the political freedoms of the people by the then dictatorship set in motion a train of events, which led to the end of dictatorship?

5. While the US Government and its security agencies have been helping theChinese in whatever way they can, Beijing is worried over the possiblemachinations of die-hard anti-China elements among right-wing Americanintellectuals, Christian missionaries and others. The Chinese do not want tounderestimate their capacity for a political sabotage of the Olympics.

6. For the present, the present leadership under Mr.Hu is confident thatnothing can come in the way of a successful and spectacular Olympics. Will theirconfidence be belied? If it is, Mr.Hu could face serious embarrassment, if nottrouble, in the party. (29-10-07)

To be continued.

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. ofIndia, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies.