How Can Pakistan Qualify After New Zealand's Defeat Against England? NRR and Key Scenarios Explained

England beat New Zealand by 4 wickets in a last-over thriller at the R.Premadasa Stadium in Colombo on Friday, February 27, 2026.

With this win, England have topped their group by winning all their Super Eights matches and will now face India/West Indies in the semi-final at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai.

While New Zealand are still in contention to reach the semi-finals, they would need either Pakistan lose against Sri Lanka in their final match, or the margin of victory is not big.

The loss brought New Zealand's NRR down from 3.050 to 1.390, while Pakistan have a NRR of -0.461, which means that they will have to beat Sri Lanka by 64 runs, if they bat first or chase down the stipulated target in 13.1 overs to surpass the Kiwis and proceed into the semi-finals.

While batting first in simple that Pakistan will have to win by a margin of 64 runs or more, chasing could pose different scenarios. Let's understand them:

• If SL bats first and scores 180-200, Pakistan would need to chase it in roughly 13.5-15 overs (e.g. 14.1 for 180) to get over NZ's NRR above of 1.390 and qualify on tiebreaker.

• If SL bats first and scores 130, Pakistan will have to chase it in roughly 12.9 overs or less to lift their NRR above NZ's 1.390 and qualify on tiebreaker.

However, if Pakistan lose to Sri Lanka then they will be knocked out of the tournament and the New Zealand will face South Africa in Kolkata, otherwise, the semi-final will be played in Colombo.

Will Jacks And Rehan Ahmad's Heroics Guide ENG To Hard-Fought Win

After electing to bat first on a used pitch, New Zealand got off to a fiery start, thumping 54/0 runs in the powerplay. Fin Allen and Tim Siefert took on England bowlers to cleaners to give their team a head start on a track which was supposed to slow down once the ball got old.

New Zealand were looking at 180 at one time when they were 116/3 in 13 overs, with a well-set Glenn Philips and Mark Chapman on the crease. However, England spinners pulled things towards the end to hold the Kiwis to 159/7 at the end.

In response, England, who were once reeling at a precarious position at 117/6 in 17 overs, eventually won the match with 4 balls to spare on the back of Will Jack's and Rehan Ahmad's 44-run unbeaten stand to take their team over the line. Will Jack slammed 32 off 18 balls, while Rehan Ahmad blasted 19 off 7 balls to achieve the monstrous task.