Will They, Won't They?

Nearly six years after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) parted ways in Punjab, speculation is mounting over whether the two former allies could reunite to take on the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Despite recent controversies and a string of defections, AAP retains a strong organisational base and continues to command significant support among voters in the state.

Officially, both parties maintain that they are preparing to contest all 117 seats in the state Assembly. But the meeting between SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Monsoon Session of Parliament, coupled with Modi's decision to enquire about Badal's health after he was attacked by a Nihang Sikh at a gurdwara in Nanded, Maharashtra, has set political circles abuzz. The developments have fuelled speculation that the two parties could be quietly exploring the possibility of a rapprochement ahead of the next Assembly election.

Sources familiar with the discussions told Outlook that the BJP has proposed a 50:50 seat-sharing arrangement with the SAD, signalling that it is unwilling to play second fiddle to the Akali Dal, as it did in their earlier alliance. The BJP wants to contest seats where it finished first or second in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, in a state where four major political parties are vying for influence. 

Senior leaders, including BJP's National General Secretary, BL Santhosh, and former national General Secretary and Rajya Sabha MP Tarun Chugh, have visited the state recently and have repeatedly postured that the party will contest on all 117 Assembly seats.

A person familiar with the development told Outlook that the negotiations are being led by the BJP's central leadership, with a senior Union minister and a former minister tasked with persuading the SAD to give the BJP greater space in the alliance.

Adding to speculation about a revival of the alliance ahead of next year's state Assembly election, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, Sukhbir Badal's wife and the SAD MP from Bathinda, spoke of the "agreements through which development and progress are carried out from Delhi, as used to happen earlier". Her remarks were seen as a reference to the development work during the previous SAD-BJP alliance. She declined to elaborate, but political observers were quick to read between the lines.

Need for Each Other

The SAD ended its alliance with the BJP in 2020 following a backlash against the three farm laws introduced by the BJP-led government at the Centre, which were widely seen as anti-farmer in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. The SAD's rural support base is particularly strong among different Sikh castes, including Jatt and Dalit Sikhs. Sikh population in Punjab, which is about 58 per cent of the total population, carries considerable weight in the state's electoral politics.

Yet breaking away from the BJP did little to convince voters that the SAD had no responsibility for the farm laws. The party had been part of the BJP-led government when the legislation was introduced and struggled to distance itself from the measures, repealed in November 2021, that farmers feared would pave the way for greater privatisation of the agriculture sector, weaken the mandi system and threaten the livelihoods of farmers and commission agents, who play a crucial role in Punjab's rural economy.

Having lost the BJP's support base after the split, the SAD sought to broaden its social coalition by tying up with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) for the 2022 Assembly election. The BSP contested 20 seats, while the Akalis fought the remaining 97, with the alliance hoping to consolidate Punjab's sizeable Dalit vote, which accounts for around a third of the electorate. But the strategy failed to make a significant electoral impact. The BSP won just one seat, while the SAD secured only three seats—12 fewer than it had won in the 2017 Assembly election. This was despite Kanshi Ram's roots in Rupnagar in Punjab, and the Akalis' support for his successful bid to be a Lok Sabha member three decades ago.

"Punjab's 33 per cent Dalit population is split among 39 different caste communities, with Chamars and Valmikis among the largest. Mazhabis, Valmikis and Masihs are three distinct religious groups, within the Valmiki caste. Mazhabis have traditionally supported the Akalis while Valmikis and Nasihs have tended to vote the Congress. The alliance did not work because the BSP's support is largely confined to the Chamar community," says Paramjit S. Judge, former president of the Indian Sociological Society.

Meanwhile, the BJP too tried new partners, joining hands with former Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress and Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa's Shiromani Akali Dal (Sanyukt). But that experiment fared no better. The BJP won only two seats, while the Punjab Lok Congress and SAD (Sanyukt) failed to win a single seat.

The weakening of the SAD-BJP alliance, combined with the failure of the rival alliances, created political space for the AAP, which had gradually built a support base cutting across religious and caste groups. Its campaign around issues such as unemployment, corruption and rising drug abuse among the state's youth helped it convert this broad-based appeal into a decisive mandate in 2022.

The weak streak continued for the SAD and the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The SAD won just one of Punjab's 13 seats, while the BJP secured none, down from two in 2019. The electoral decline of both parties has since raised a question that could shape Punjab's next Assembly election: whether the BJP and SAD, having struggled separately, now need each other more than they did when they first walked away.

The Hard Bargain

One reason leaders of both parties are denying that talks are under way is the hard bargaining over the terms of a possible alliance. For 25 years, since 1996, the BJP had played the role of junior partner to the SAD in Punjab, contesting a limited number of Assembly seats. The party, however, now wants a larger share of the political pie.

BJP chief ministers are in power in 16 of the 28 states in the country. The party has strengthened its position by attracting MPs and MLAs from rival parties, including the Shiv Sena, Trinamool Congress and AAP. The steady flow of defections has reinforced the BJP's confidence to negotiate from a position of strength, both with existing allies and potential partners.

Ashutosh Kumar, professor of political science at Panjab University, says the BJP was confined to 23 of Punjab's 117 Assembly seats for much of its alliance with the SAD. "It would not like to be confined to 23 anymore," he says.

The BJP's bargaining position has got a boost from the SAD's declining political fortunes. The rise of AAP has eroded the Akali Dal's traditional support base, while the emergence of new panthic forces has further fragmented the political space once dominated by the SAD.

The fragmentation of the SAD has been building since its defeat in the 2017 Assembly election, when several senior leaders broke away, blaming the Badals for the party's decline. Although Sukhbir Badal attempted to bring the old guard back into the fold after the death of his father, Parkash Singh Badal, in 2023, the party has struggled to reclaim its earlier dominance. The merger of the Shiromani Akali Dal (Sanyukt) with the SAD in 2024 brought some consolidation, but the party remains a shadow of the force it once was.

On the other hand, there are also factors that strengthen the Akalis' hand in a negotiation with the BJP. The national party's political standing has taken a hit in recent months over issues such as the alleged NEET examination paper leak and allegations surrounding the use of donations made to the Ram temple. Political observers, and some party leaders, say the party's image has taken a beating among sections of its traditional supporters, including in Punjab.

The 2024 Lok Sabha election underscored the shifting political fortunes. Amritpal Singh and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa won from Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot, respectively, occupying a political space that was once largely associated with the Akali Dal. "Right now, it's a very fluid situation," says Kumar, referring to the state's increasingly multipolar electoral contest.

Despite some anti-incumbency, the AAP remains a significant force, while the Congress continues to be competitive in spite of its internal divisions. For both parties, therefore, the proposed alliance is less a return to the old order than a negotiation between two weakened political forces, each seeking to maximise its bargaining power while trying to arrest its own decline.

High-Stakes Election for BJP

While the BJP has an advantage over the SAD because of the latter's declining fortunes in Punjab, the party is conscious that farmers remain a politically influential constituency, particularly in the run-up to the 2029 Lok Sabha election. The BJP has made significant inroads into eastern India, most strikingly with its first-ever victory in West Bengal this May, but its long-term political ambitions still depend heavily on maintaining its hold over the Hindi heartland and North India. Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan together account for 122 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

However, Punjab matters to the BJP for reasons that extend beyond electoral arithmetic. The party's interest in the state is linked to its concerns over national security, particularly cross-border narcotics, arms smuggling and terror financing. The state shares a 553-km border with Pakistan, and remains a key transit route for drugs entering India and moving to other parts of the country. Having the state under its control would give the BJP greater leverage over security-related issues and improve coordination between the Centre and the state in tackling drug trafficking.

"Punjab's strategic location makes it critical to national security," says Anirban Ganguly, chairman and trustee of the Dr Syama Prasad Mookerjee Research Foundation. "Pakistan has repeatedly sought to exploit the state to create instability, which is why the security challenge must remain a priority."

The state's importance is also amplified by its links with nearby states of Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi. The four states are frequently caught up in disputes over air pollution, stubble burning, water sharing and other environmental issues, making Punjab an important piece in the BJP's political strategy for northern India. A stronger presence in the state would therefore give the party greater leverage in dealing with issues that transcend state borders.

Punjab also figures prominently in the BJP's "double-engine" development narrative, which argues that greater alignment between the Centre and the state can accelerate economic growth and development. Moreover, the party now believes the strategy that delivered West Bengal—15 years of relentless ground-level work—could work in Punjab.

Given such compulsions, the BJP may prefer to strike a deal with its estranged ally in Punjab rather than risk going it alone. In Odisha, the party chose to contest independently in the 2024 Assembly election and went on to form the government. Punjab, however, presents a different challenge. After drawing a blank in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP needs to rebuild its political base in a state where the SAD still retains a rural and organisational network. A renewed alliance could give both parties a better chance of challenging the AAP and returning to power.