Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party Wrests Bankipur From BJP; Congress Retains Datia

Jan Suraaj Party candidate Prashant Kishor has wrested the Bankipur assembly constituency from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while Congress leader Kuwar Ghanshyam Singh retained the Datia seat. The byelection defeats represent a significant electoral blow to the ruling party.

Bankipur operated as a pocket borough for BJP chief Nitin Nabin and previously his father, Navin Sinha, who won the seat five times. Nabin vacated the constituency following his election to the Rajya Sabha earlier this year. After becoming party president, Nabin led the party to victory in the West Bengal assembly polls.

The BJP's vote share in Bankipur collapsed to 34 per cent, marking its lowest tally since 1995. Several senior party figures lost their own local polling booths during the election.

Nabin published a statement on X accepting the public mandate. "We express our heartfelt gratitude to the people of Manjalpur...for expressing their faith in the BJP...In Bankipur and Datia, we did not receive the expected mandate. We will conduct a thorough introspection of the election results in both these areas with complete seriousness, and with renewed energy and determination, we will continue to go among the people and work tirelessly to further strengthen their trust," Nabin wrote.

Caste Fractures in Bankipur

Upper-caste voters account for more than 42 per cent of the electorate in Bankipur. This demographic failed to consolidate behind BJP candidate Neeraj Kumar during the byelection, choosing instead to back Kishor.

The entire National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leadership of Bihar campaigned in Bankipur, deploying more than 60 MLAs, MPs and state ministers. An appeal from former chief minister Nitish Kumar to vote in favour of the BJP was also circulated, and allies Lok Janshakti Party and Janata Dal (United) spared no effort. Nabin camped for more than a week, connecting with workers and voters through phone and meetings.

The ruling party triggered widespread resentment when it replaced Kumar with Samrat Choudhary as the chief minister of Bihar in April. This leadership change alienated both Kurmi and upper-caste communities. Statements by some senior leaders intended to reflect the BJP’s hold over the constituency were perceived as arrogant and alienated the urban electorate.

"Other than the Kurmis who have been an important factor in Nitish Kumar’s win, the UC, largely seen as educated and informed were not happy with the choice of Choudhary as CM...then came the UGC equity regulations (later stayed by the Supreme Court) which added fuel to the fire and added to their resentment," a party functionary said, in remarks reported by Hindustan Times.

Internal party assessments show traditional voting blocs broke down completely. "There is a fracture in every caste group. The Kurmis are upset over Nitish Kumar being replaced as CM by Samrat Choudhary, the upper-castes backed Prashant Kishor, the Muslims do not vote for us, and only the Dalit vote seems intact. What is more worrying is that women voters seem to have drifted away too," a second party leader said.

Student anger regarding examination paper leaks further damaged the party's prospects. "There are many coaching centres in Bankipur, and overall the number of students appearing for competitive examinations who are from Bihar is high. The issue has a strong resonance on the ground," the second leader said to the Hindustan Times.

Candidate selection blunders compounded the crisis. The BJP initially fielded Abhishek Kumar Sinha but withdrew his nomination over his family's alleged role in the fodder scam. The party hurriedly replaced him with Mandal president Neeraj Kumar.

Trouble Brews in Datia

Datia served as a reliable stronghold for the BJP. The constituency elected the party three times in a row before the 2023 assembly elections.

"The loss is an eye opener for the party...it shows how support from groups that are counted as BJP vote banks has eroded. The fact that the party did not even win in blocs where strong leaders such as Ravi Shankar Prasad, Nitin Nabin and Ramkripal Yadav come from is telling..." a senior party leader said.

Local dynamics shifted heavily against the party after senior leader Narottam Mishra was denied a ticket. Although he lost the 2023 polls, Mishra had won the seat thrice starting 2008. Internal assessments suggest deeper systemic issues beyond candidate selection.

"The loss in Datia however is not because of the candidate. Even if Mishra had been fielded the party would have still lost because the UC is alienated..." a Madhya Pradesh-based lawmaker said.

The crucial Kushwaha vote bank migrated to the Congress. This shift occurred after the wife of murdered BJP leader Kallu Kushwaha publicly accused Chief Minister Mohan Yadav of "shielding the accused who was also a Yadav".

"There is a difference between support for the self and support for the party...because he [Mishra] had not strengthened the party, the BJP candidate did not win. The leadership had taken note of this," the lawmaker said.

Party insiders also identified local intra-party friction and public anger over alleged donation theft at the Ram Temple as contributing factors to the defeat.