Is INDIA Bloc’s Infighting Costing It Loyal Voters In Bihar Assembly Elections?

“It no longer seems possible for Tejashwi to become Bihar’s Chief Minister,” says Surendra Prasad. 

A supporter of Lalu Prasad Yadav since the 1990s, Prasad gradually shifted his allegiance to Lalu’s younger son Tejashwi Yadav, seeing him as the political heir to his leader’s legacy. Yet today, Surendra, who has voted for the RJD for decades, admits this with quiet disappointment.

Is INDIA Bloc Losing Voters Amid Disunity?

When asked when it seemed possible, the 55-year-old from Phulwari Sharif says, “All alliances are built for strength but when that strength crumbles, people crumble too. Those who once thought of voting for the INDIA alliance are now rethinking.”

Surendra’s frustration comes from the INDIA bloc’s disunity, which has undermined the strong front seen during the “Voter Adhikar Yatra.” He believes the RJD and Congress must unite, or the more cohesive National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will capitalise on their fractures and gain electorally.

He isn’t speaking as just an average voter. Having tracked past electoral trends, he recalls how the Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) narrowly lost the 2020 Bihar Assembly election by 12 seats and a margin of 0.23 per cent votes. To him, even a slight voter shift this time could tilt the outcome toward the NDA.

Allies Walk Out: JMM and RLJP Exit the Bloc

The tug-of-war over seat-sharing has become a matter of public discourse. Two key allies, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Pashupati Paras’s Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP), have already walked out of the alliance. 

JMM general secretary Supriyo Bhattacharya, citing a lack of “respectable seat allocation,” announced that his party will contest six seats independently, even warning that the Congress-RJD alliance in Jharkhand would be reviewed after the Bihar polls. Meanwhile, RLJP chief Pashupati Kumar Paras declared that his party would instead join forces with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM.

JMM leader and Jharkhand minister Sudivya Kumar said, “With great regret, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is compelled to state that the party will not be contesting the Bihar Assembly elections this time.”

He added, “We are deeply hurt that under the leadership of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, no effort was made to ensure the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s rightful participation in the alliance.”

Kumar further said, “It is unfortunate that a major political organization like the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is unable to participate in the Bihar elections. For this, we hold the RJD responsible, and also blame our ally, the Congress, for failing to uphold the spirit of coalition dharma.”

Of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats, the RJD has released a list of 144 candidates, Congress 60, CPI-ML 20, and VIP 15, while CPI and CPI-M have fielded more candidates than last time. In at least 10–12 constituencies, including Laalgunj, Vaishali, Rajapakar, and Bihar Sharif, “friendly fights” have erupted among allies.

In Kutumba, sitting Congress MLA and Bihar Congress president Rajesh Ram faces an RJD rival on his own seat. His sharp social media post — “Dalits will neither bow nor break; revolution is coming” — captures the bitterness within.

Independent MP Pappu Yadav has openly criticized the RJD, accusing Lalu Yadav of undermining allies: “Stop this old tradition of secretly fielding candidates against alliance partners. Learn from others — respect allies like JMM. Congress keeps swallowing insults but avoids breaking decorum.”

An Alliance in Decay

Senior journalist Pushyamitra calls the INDIA bloc “an alliance in decay” and cites four causes: RJD and Congress’s over-ambition in seat allocation, lack of communication, weak leadership, and Tejashwi Yadav’s loss of momentum after the IRCTC scam chargesheet.

Pushyamitra observes, “Politics demands conviction and flexibility. When Tejashwi went to meet Rahul Gandhi in Delhi to finalize seats, Rahul refused, asking him to speak to party in-charge Krishna Allavaru. That strategic mistake upset Tejashwi, who then distributed tickets unilaterally.”

For many, this leadership vacuum, especially Rahul Gandhi’s detachment, has weakened the alliance.

Meanwhile, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has sought to counter anti-incumbency through a series of populist pre-election announcements, including 125 units of free electricity, ₹10,000 assistance for women under the “Mahila Rozgar Yojana,” pension hikes, and stipends for unemployed youth and para-workers. Analysts see these as “compensatory welfare” moves, Nitish’s version of rewari politics aimed at offsetting voter fatigue after two decades in power.

The Role of Floating Voters

Ashish Ranjan, founder of the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies, argues that the race still hinges on the INDIA bloc’s internal strength, “If fought unitedly, it remains the Grand Alliance’s election to lose. The NDA hasn’t done anything extraordinary; the problem lies within the opposition’s camp.”

He cautions that five to ten per cent of Bihar’s “floating voters” could decide the outcome. “If INDIA stays united, these voters may side with them; otherwise, they could swing toward the NDA or to Prashant Kishor’s movement,” he adds.

The roots of RJD–Congress tension go deeper. Two months ago, the Congress replaced its Bihar president, Akhilesh Prasad Singh (a Bhumihar leader close to Lalu), with Dalit MLA Rajesh Kumar Ram, signalling both a social and strategic realignment. Insiders say this was also an assertion that Congress would no longer play the junior partner.

Congress in-charge Krishna Allavaru’s curt response to media: “Our strategy is a strong Congress and a strong INDIA”, reflected this new posture.

Rajesh Ram himself told Outlook India, “People across India are regaining faith in Congress through Rahul Gandhi’s social justice campaign. Our workers must now shed the perception that Congress stands under anyone’s shadow.”

Learning from 2020: Lessons Left Unlearnt

This assertiveness draws from 2020, when RJD contested 144 seats, Congress 70, and the Left 29. The Mahagathbandhan won 110 seats, just 12 short of a majority. Congress performed poorly, winning only 19 seats with a 27 per cent strike rate versus RJD’s 52 per cent and the Left’s 55 per cent.

That underperformance, many say, cost the alliance power. This time, RJD wanted to limit Congress to 50 seats, but Congress insisted on retaining its old quota of 70.

Ironically, while analysts expected cracks within the NDA, it is the INDIA bloc that appears in disarray. Allegations of ticket-selling, infighting, and “friendly contests” have replaced the unity once displayed during the Yatra.

The INDIA alliance, undermined by internal conflict, risks losing a winnable Bihar election as voter disillusionment mounts and the NDA leverages its unity.