Column | Drones, Proxies, Energy Targets: Lessons For India From The Gulf War

Recently, the Houthis and other Iranian backed proxies in Iraq have struck yet again, and this time with more ferocity. Targets were airports, energy sites, pipelines, and other installations. Cause cited by Houthis is that it is a retaliation to Saudi Arabia’s interferences and military operations in Yemen.

The conflict in the Gulf region is going nowhere and has become further complicated in absence of global leadership. The attacks are part of the larger campaign of Iran through its proxies to sustain pressure on Saudi Arabia for siding with United States. This time around, the increase in the intensity of attacks seemed like part of the larger game plan to indirectly tighten the pressure on United States to come around Iran’s terms and conditions for a cessation of hostilities on favourable terms for the latter. For Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries the stakes are high, and the Houthis and Iranians know it too well.

It affects not just the cashflow of Gulf countries but also brings unbearable, long-term pressure on global energy security. The Houthis have managed to make geographical advances which position them to target strategic energy transportation routes.

Lessons From A Rapidly Evolving Battlefield

There are too many lessons for India to learn from this conflict. A combination of well assessed intelligence, potent drone & missile platforms and presence of proxy groups is disrupting the modern-day battlespace. And the results are devastating. It is clear that Iran had war-gamed and accounted for every contingency in case of a prolonged tiff with Americans and Israelis. And for such security contingencies, they had created enduring supply chains to sustain a long war with US and its neighbouring adversaries.

Pakistan would be watching too. Given its chameleon nature of foreign policy, it continues to engage with countries on either side of the spectrum and geography. This engagement allows it to draw lessons in drone warfare and technology up close and personal.

The Critical Infrastructure Concern

Despite the successes India got in Operation Sindoor, India needs to prepare continuously to insulate its economic & strategic installations from rogue drone threats, especially emanating from Pakistan. This is important given that the target selection methodology in the recent Gulf conflict reveals a propensity to hit out at static and moving assets which have a bearing on energy security, economic importance and cause psychological impact on target country. At an operational level, the diverse nature of sites targeted by warring sides in the Gulf conflict also provides important leads for India to update the list of vulnerable sites requiring counter drone preparedness.

India needs to keep a tab on the movements and activities of Pakistan’s proxies and terrorist groups who would be drawing their own lessons from the ongoing drone warfare in the Gulf region. Terrorist groups across the world have used commercially available drones to conduct surveillance and strike missions. The problem further complicates when terrorist groups start building their own “Do-It-Yourself” drones, which are even harder to track. Therefore, Indian intelligence agencies will need to proactively keep a tab on the entire supply and value chain that goes into building a drone by rogue actors. This requires building relationships and trust with drone components developers and suppliers, technology hubs, and drone flying training institutions to list a few.

Counter-Drone Technology Needs Cooperation

Governments, militaries and solution developers across the world are still grappling to understand the various facets of drone warfare. There are several companies in India which are making an entry in the space of counter-drones. However, counter drone technology cannot be developed in isolation. Given the rapid nature of innovation in the defence drone space, there is a need for countries like India to have constant flow of information to analyse and assess patterns of drone attacks and evolving nature of drone technology which is leading to bolder and audacious attacks across the globe.

To inform technological preparedness, operational adjustments and planning, there is a need for India and various stakeholders in public and private sector to undertake joint study missions to review the evolving nature of drone warfare across the globe. To that effect, there is a need for establishment of a national level think-tank which can become a repository of knowledge and information on drone warfare, commission studies on different aspects of drone usage in conflicts and hub for discussions between solution developers, innovation institutions, security agencies and policy makers.

(Views expressed by the author are personal)