BJP Favoured to Win All 3 Rajya Sabha Seats in Bengal, Divided TMC Unlikely to Put Up a Contest

The bypolls, scheduled for July 24, were necessitated by the resignations of former TMC Rajya Sabha members Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, Sushmita Dev and Prakash Chik Baraik, who quit both the Upper House and the party in June after questioning the leadership following the TMC's defeat in the assembly elections.

The terms of Roy and Baraik were due to run till September 2029, while Dev's tenure was to continue till April 2030.

The TMC's present strength in Rajya Sabha is nine.

With the BJP holding 208 seats in the 294-member assembly, the numbers overwhelmingly favour the saffron camp. If it fields three candidates and its legislators vote along party lines, the party can comfortably secure around 70, 69 and 69 votes for its nominees respectively, making victory in all three contests a distinct possibility.

Under the Rajya Sabha electoral system, a candidate in the three-seat bypoll would require around 70 first-preference votes to secure election.

The BJP's current strength in the assembly places it in a position to meet that threshold for three candidates without depending on support from other parties.

The arithmetic also illustrates the challenge before the principal opposition TMC.

Any rival candidate would require at least 70 votes to defeat a BJP nominee. While the combined strength of legislators elected on the TMC ticket still stands at around 80, the party's legislative wing is now split between the camp led by Mamata Banerjee and the dissident faction headed by Leader of Opposition Ritabrata Banerjee.

In theory, a united TMC could have attempted to consolidate support behind a common candidate and remain in contention for one seat. In practice, however, the deepening organisational battle has made such an understanding increasingly unlikely, according to political observers.

The significance of the bypolls, therefore, extends beyond arithmetic.

The elections are taking place at a time when the TMC is embroiled in an unprecedented battle for control of the party, with rival factions simultaneously staking claim to its name, symbol and organisational structure before the Election Commission.

The Mamata Banerjee camp sought to play down the significance of the possible Rajya Sabha setback, arguing that the vacancies were a consequence of "betrayal" by leaders who deserted the party during crisis.

"These seats belonged to the TMC and were won on the strength of the party in the last assembly election. A few individuals chose to desert the party after the results. The people of Bengal are watching who stood with them and who abandoned them at a difficult moment," a senior leader aligned with the Mamata Banerjee faction said.

The rebel camp, however, maintained that the resignations reflected a broader crisis of confidence in the party's leadership.

"The resignations are not isolated incidents. They are part of a larger political message. The leadership ignored repeated warnings from within the organisation, and the consequences became evident in the assembly election. The real issue is not the Rajya Sabha seats but why so many elected representatives no longer have faith in the present leadership," a rebel faction leader said.

The dissidents first demonstrated their strength when 58 of the TMC's 80 MLAs backed Banerjee's claim to the post of Leader of the Opposition, rejecting the nominee supported by the party leadership. The faction now claims the support of around 65 legislators and has projected itself as the legitimate inheritor of the party's political legacy.

The BJP, meanwhile, said the bypolls reflected the broader political changes underway in the state.

"The outcome appears largely determined by the current arithmetic in the assembly. The TMC is fighting itself while the BJP is focused on governance and organisation. An increase in our Rajya Sabha strength will reflect the mandate that Bengal has given us," a senior state BJP leader said.

The Rajya Sabha contest is unfolding alongside proceedings before the Election Commission, which has asked both TMC factions to submit documentary evidence of support and organisational records as part of their competing claims over the party's identity.

A BJP victory in all three seats would strengthen the party's representation in the Rajya Sabha while further reducing the TMC's strength in the Upper House. More significantly, it would underline the political consequences of the split within the opposition party at a time when the battle for control of the TMC itself remains unresolved.

Against this backdrop, the July 24 bypolls are being viewed as more than a routine electoral exercise. Their outcome is likely to be closely watched not only for its impact on parliamentary numbers but also for what it may reveal about the evolving balance of power in West Bengal politics.