43% Less Rain: What India's Weak Monsoon Means For Crops And Food Prices

India's monsoon is off to a weak start, with rainfall currently running 43 per cent below normal. The deficit has raised concerns within the Centre, with Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan warning that 315 districts across the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, potentially affecting the ongoing kharif season.

The concern comes as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026, the first such forecast in 11 years. Addressing the media after reviewing monsoon preparedness, Chouhan outlined the areas most at risk and the government's strategy to minimise the impact on farmers and food production.

How Big Is the Rainfall Deficit

Chouhan flagged the 43% deficit in rains warning the intesity of this could adversy impact crop yield.

"Overall, there is a 43 per cent deficit in monsoon rains. IMD forecasts that the weak monsoon is likely to continue till July 2. It means, kharif crops could be impacted," Chouhan said after reviewing monsoon progress.

The IMD defines normal monsoon rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm during the June-September season. According to Reuters, the weather office has forecast an El Niño-weakened monsoon that could result in the lowest rainfall in 11 years.

The agriculture ministry has identified 315 districts across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha as likely to receive below-normal rainfall.

Among them, 111 districts — including 20 in Maharashtra — have been classified as "most vulnerable" because less than 25 per cent of farmland is irrigated. Another 76 districts fall in the medium-vulnerability category, while 128 districts with stronger irrigation and dam infrastructure have been categorised as least vulnerable.

The stakes are significant. The monsoon accounts for nearly 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall, while almost half of the country's farmland depends on rain because it lacks irrigation facilities. Agriculture also remains a primary source of livelihood for millions of Indians.

Which Crops Are Most Vulnerable

The timing of the rainfall deficit is particularly important because June and July are crucial months for kharif sowing.

Millions of farmers plant crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybean and sugarcane during this period, and a delayed or patchy monsoon can affect yields and rural incomes.

As of June 22, kharif sowing had covered 11.99 million hectares, marginally higher than the 11.79 million hectares recorded during the same period last year. Most crops are tracking ahead of last year's pace, except soybean.

The crops most vulnerable to deficient rainfall include:

• Cereals and Millets: Rice (paddy), maize, jowar (sorghum) and bajra (pearl millet)

• Pulses: Tur (arhar/pigeon pea), urad (black gram) and moong (green gram)

• Oilseeds: Soybean, groundnut and sesame

• Cash Crops: Cotton and sugarcane

To reduce risks, states have been advised to encourage farmers in rain-fed regions to shift towards short-duration and less water-intensive crops such as pulses, millets and oilseeds.

Will Your Grocery Bill Rise?

For consumers, the impact of a weak monsoon is unlikely to be immediate.

However, uneven rainfall can eventually affect the prices of vegetables, pulses and edible oils if sowing is delayed or crop yields decline. The extent of any increase will depend on how rainfall progresses over the coming weeks, the degree of crop damage and the government's ability to deploy buffer stocks.

Food inflation remains a key concern whenever rainfall becomes erratic. That said, India currently has comfortable reserves of staple grains such as rice and wheat, providing some cushion against immediate supply disruptions.

The Centre is also expanding access to crop insurance, farm credit and income-support programmes to reduce the impact on farmers.

The Government's Plan For 315 At-Risk Districts

The agriculture ministry has prepared state-wise contingency plans recommending alternative crops suited to deficient rainfall conditions.

States have been directed to promote pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals that require less water, while encouraging farmers to adopt short-duration and climate-resilient seed varieties.

"There is a gap in rainfall. We need to suggest to farmers to go for alternative crops. We will not let farm fields remain empty," Chouhan said, adding that seed and fertiliser supplies remain adequate.

Reservoir levels are currently above last year's levels, though they have begun declining. States have been asked to use water judiciously and clean ponds, streams, farm ponds and check dams under the Viksit Bharat–Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission Gramin (VB-GRAM G) programme to preserve water for irrigation.

The ministry has also pushed for greater enrolment under crop insurance schemes and Kisan Credit Cards in vulnerable districts. Its network of 731 Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) has been asked to intensify farmer outreach through SMS, WhatsApp, call centres and other communication channels.

On production estimates, Chouhan maintained that the government would work to prevent any decline in output.

"We will ensure production does not fall," he said.

To monitor the evolving situation, the ministry has established an El Niño Monitoring Cell and a Crop Weather Watch Group for real-time tracking and advisories.

"There is no need to panic. There is a need for preparation and collective action. If the central and state govts, scientific institutions, district administrations and farmers, all together make coordinated efforts, then even the challenge of El Nino can be turned into an opportunity," the minister said.

Whether July Rains Can Still Rescue The Kharif Season

The answer may depend on what happens over the next few weeks.

The IMD said monsoon conditions are likely to remain weak across most parts of the country until June 24, with below-normal rainfall expected in most regions except parts of south peninsular India and the Northeast.

On June 17, IMD Mumbai said weather models indicated a possibility of rainfall over Konkan around June 24 and 25, although no broader revival was forecast for the rest of Maharashtra.

The weather office has also said the monsoon is likely to advance further into Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of Chhattisgarh in the coming days.

Despite the current slowdown, the season is still unfolding. However, the IMD has forecast rainfall at 90 per cent of the long-period average and assigned a 60 per cent probability to a deficient monsoon, while El Niño conditions are expected to develop through the season.

With the monsoon already running behind schedule and kharif sowing entering a critical phase, July's rainfall will be closely watched. Whether the season recovers or the deficit deepens could determine not only the fate of this year's crops, but also the trajectory of food prices and rural incomes in the months ahead.