Marine Le Pen’s 2027 presidential election odds have risen above 50%.
Betting markets reflect growing support despite her EU funds conviction.
Her campaign focuses on law and order, protectionism and nationalism.
Who Is Marine Le Pen? What Are Her Policies as Election Odds Rise Amid France Unrest?
Marine Le Pen’s odds of winning France’s 2027 presidential election have crossed 50% on betting markets. Here is a look at her political career, EU funds conviction and key policies
Summary
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen could win the presidential elections in France in 2027, according to betting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, despite a court upholding a guilty verdict for embezzlement of EU funds against her.
The prediction comes as France continues to face widespread protests over the rising cost of living. Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader praised by US President Donald Trump as France’s “conservative voice”, has seen her odds of winning the 2027 presidential election rise to more than 50%, up from 39% last month.
On Kalshi, the “Yes” contract for Le Pen was trading at 54 cents as of Thursday (IST), while Édouard Philippe stood at 16 cents and David Lisnard at 11 cents.
The polls were conducted after the 58-year-old veteran far-right leader announced her election bid. She made the announcement after an appeals court found her guilty of misusing EU funds to pay party staff but reduced her election ban, allowing her to contest the polls.
Who Is Marine Le Pen?
Marine Le Pen, 58, is a French politician and member of the National Assembly. She previously led the National Front (FN), a far-right political party in France.
Born on August 5, 1968, she is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, a controversial politician known for his far-right views. She holds a Master of Laws and a Master of Advanced Studies from Pantheon-Assas University. Le Pen ran for president in 2012, 2017 and 2022.
In March 2025, a French court convicted Le Pen of misusing EU funds to pay party staff. She was initially barred from holding public office for five years.
However, an appeals court reduced the ban this year, clearing the way for her to contest the 2027 presidential election, when French voters will choose a successor to President Emmanuel Macron.
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What Are Policies Of Marine Le Pen?
Marine Le Pen has used public anger over the riots to strengthen her presidential campaign, presenting herself as an alternative to what she calls a powerless government.
She has repeatedly criticised the growing unrest, making law and order a key part of her campaign. She has also blamed policies under President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist government for contributing to the situation.
Marine Le Pen supports economic nationalism and protectionist policies, favouring them over free trade. She opposes globalisation, which she blames for several economic problems. Le Pen and her party have also argued that multiculturalism has failed and called for the “de-Islamisation” of French society.
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