Record Heat Ahead? What The UN’s 5-Year Climate Warning Says

Earth is likely to cross the internationally agreed climate threshold repeatedly over the next five years, with a strong chance that at least one year will set a new record for the planet’s hottest year, according to new United Nations climate projections.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UK Met Office project continued high global temperatures between 2026 and 2030, alongside faster warming in the Arctic and increasingly dry conditions in the Amazon basin. According to AP, the forecasts point to a higher risk of extreme heat, drought, floods and wildfires as the world continues to warm because of the burning of coal, oil and gas.

The WMO estimates a 75% chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. The 1.5-degree threshold is the agreed-upon limit of warming, averaged over 20 years, set under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

The report also gives a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, while there is an 86% chance that at least one year during the period will be hotter than 2024, currently the hottest year on record.

The WMO expects each year from 2026 to 2030 to be between 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) and 1.9 degrees Celsius (3.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than temperatures in the late 19th century.

Crossing 1.5 degrees does not mean the planet reaches a single point at which climate impacts suddenly become catastrophic. Scientists say the risks increase progressively as warming rises.

“It’s important to note that (1.5) is not kind of a cliff edge that we’re going to fall off,” said report co-author Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the UK Meteorological Office. “Every kind of 0.1 of a degree has more and more severe impact.”

Seabrook pointed to unprecedented May heat in Europe this week as an example of the extreme conditions already being experienced.

Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who was not involved in the report, said a year or more above the 1.5-degree mark could expose societies to extreme weather beyond what many existing systems have been designed to handle.

“An entire year or more above the 1.5 degree mark means a whole range of extreme weather events, probably many so hot/wet/dry that it exceeds anything we’ve experienced in the past and thus crucially, anything our city planning, agriculture etc. has anticipated,” Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto, who wasn’t part of the report, said in an email. “This will mean many people will lose their lives, we are in for a lot of food price shocks, and more intense wildfires.”

El Nino could push temperatures higher

According to AP, most short-term forecasts point to a strong El Nino developing soon. El Nino is a natural warming of parts of the central Pacific Ocean that can alter weather patterns around the world and raise global temperatures.

The WMO report says the phenomenon could continue until 2028. Seabrook said this could make 2027 particularly likely to break the 2024 heat record.

The projections could also add to the debate over whether global warming is accelerating. If global temperatures average more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels over the next five years, the planet would have warmed by about a quarter of a degree Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) in a decade.

That would be faster than previous warming rates, which were closer to two-tenths of a degree Celsius per decade.

Climate scientists are debating whether the rate of warming is increasing, Seabrook said. If the new projections materialise, she said, they would provide further evidence for scientists who believe warming is accelerating.

Arctic expected to warm much faster

The Arctic is forecast to warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the planet, with temperatures projected to rise by nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.66 degrees Celsius) between now and 2030, according to the projections.

The forecasts are based on an average of about 200 computer simulations using 13 climate models from different countries. Seabrook said the faster Arctic warming is linked partly to the loss of snow and ice, which normally reflect solar radiation back into space.

As those surfaces disappear, more heat is absorbed, creating a cycle of further warming.

“As the temperature warms, more sea ice melts, the worse this makes it,” Seabrook said.

The WMO found that Arctic winters between 2020 and 2025 were, on average, 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the 1991-2020 average.

The next five winters are projected to be 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.1 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than that recent average, Seabrook said.

The report also forecasts continued declines in Arctic sea ice during the summer.

Amazon faces drier conditions

The Amazon basin is expected to become warmer and unusually dry, raising concerns about water supplies and wildfires.

Seabrook said people depend on the Amazon for water, while the hotter and drier conditions could increase the risk of fires. The Amazon currently absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and is an important part of Earth’s natural defences against human-caused climate change.

More fires could weaken that function and potentially turn the region into a source that worsens global warming, rather than continuing to absorb carbon dioxide at current levels.

The WMO also expects the Sahel region of Africa, which has recently experienced unusually dry conditions, to receive more rainfall than normal. That could increase the risk of flooding.

AP reported that United Nations officials said efforts to curb climate change have not been enough.

“Despite the progress of recent years, it’s clear that global heating is still outpacing global efforts to contain it, and the baking temperatures in Europe, India and elsewhere show yet again the brutal human and economic impacts of humanity still burning colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas,” U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said about the WMO report.

“Whether it’s extreme heat, mega-storms, floods, massive wildfires or droughts hitting food supply and prices,” he said, “every nation is already paying a huge price from this global climate crisis.”