NATO’s Black Sea Dilemma: How Far Can The Ukraine War Spill Over?

Three commercial vessels were struck by drones near Romania's Sulina canal in the Black Sea on Saturday,  prompting Romanian fighter jets to be scrambled twice and renewing concerns over the spillover of the Russia-Ukraine war into NATO territory.

The vessels were the Greek-flagged tanker Evia Petrol V and two Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged ships, the bulk carrier Marsol and oil products tanker Ali Najafov. There were no casualties, and the crews managed to control fires aboard the vessels, Romanian Defence Minister Stefan Radu Oprea said. Two of the ships were hit inside Romanian territorial waters.

Prime Minister Luca Niculescu said Romanian radar systems had detected aerial targets and described the incidents as violations of international law. He pledged to strengthen Black Sea security alongside NATO allies. Romanian authorities have not established who launched the drones, although Niculescu called the attacks a consequence of Russia's war against Ukraine. Moscow has denied targeting Ukraine's neighbouring countries.

A Growing Pattern Of Attacks

The latest strikes are part of a wider series of attacks on commercial shipping near Romania and Bulgaria since October. Reuters reported that at least 13 cargo ships and tankers were struck between October 5 and Saturday in or near the two NATO members' waters and exclusive economic zones.

The incidents have already resulted in deaths and missing crew members. On October 5, the Royad Mammadov was struck near Romania, killing two crew members. The following day, the Togo-flagged Alfa Watan sank after a drone attack off Bulgaria, with 12 crew members listed missing. On October 28, the Greek-owned, Liberian-flagged Contship Jet was hit by naval drones and later sank in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone. Its crew was rescued.

The concentration of attacks around Sulina is particularly significant. The canal connects the Danube River to the Black Sea and is an important shipping route used by Ukraine for exports. Repeated strikes in the area threaten commercial traffic and increase risks for vessels operating near NATO territory.

NATO's Eastern Flank Under Pressure

Romania is seeking greater support from its allies as the incidents put additional pressure on regional security arrangements. Oprea said he would raise the Black Sea situation at a meeting of allied defence ministers in Brussels, seeking surveillance-aircraft patrols and equipment for counter-drone operations.

France has temporarily relocated an Atlantique 2 maritime patrol aircraft to Romania following Bucharest's request for reinforcements. Separately, Romania's defence ministry said it had scrambled two F-16s on Saturday after detecting an aerial target near Snake Island, an incident that preceded the latest commercial-vessel strikes.

NATO has already strengthened its eastern flank through its Eastern Sentry activity, which brings additional surveillance and defence capabilities along the alliance's eastern borders. Its air and missile defence arrangements also include monitoring and patrols against airborne threats, including drones.

Risks Beyond Ukraine

The escalation illustrates how maritime attacks in the Russia-Ukraine war are increasingly affecting neighbouring NATO members, even without a direct military confrontation between the alliance and Moscow. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Wednesday that Russia was striking shipping in the Black Sea and warned of wider threats to maritime security and freedom of navigation.

With commercial vessels, shipping routes and critical infrastructure exposed, the challenge for Romania and Bulgaria is to protect their waters without allowing the conflict to expand into a direct confrontation involving the alliance.