No-Confidence Vote In Parliament Could Push France Into Political Turmoil Again | What We Know

France is all set for a no-confidence vote on Wednesday which could not only topple the government but plunge the European nation deeper into political turmoil. The no-confidence motion, supported by both the left and the far-right, is expected bring an end to the three-month term of Prime Minister Michel Barnier.

Following Barnier's forceful passing of the social security budget, French lawmakers called for several no-confidence motions in the National Assembly, which may oust the far-right PM.

On Monday, PM Barnier, who is part of Macron's minority government, used the controversial Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to pass the social security budget bill without a vote.

This vote prompted the far-right and left alliances to join hands and file for no-confidence motions.

In an interview with French TV channels, the Prime Minister stated that he is open to budget talks and believes that his government will survive the vote scheduled at 4 PM on Wednesday.

"I want this and it is possible. It depends on the MPs. I think it is possible that there is this reflex of responsibility where -- beyond political differences, divergences, the normal contradictions in a democracy -- we tell ourselves that there is a higher interest," said Barnier.

While Barnier remains hopeful that his government will survive the vote, analysts believe the French government is headed for doom as the vote looms and budget deficit increases.

If the motion is rejected, Barnier's the Social Security bill will be adopted and sent back to the Senate.

However, if the motion is passed, it will result in Barner's ouster, making him the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history.

If the assembly votes against Barnier, it would also mark the first time a no-confidence motion will have been successfully passed since 1962. A total of 298 votes are needed for the no-confidence motion to pass.

France And Its Political Turmoil - A Brief Lookback

Michel Barnier was appointed as the prime minister by President Emmanuel Macron in September 2024. Barnier's appointment comes after Macron faced a major loss in the legislative assembly elections.

Following the EU vote in June, France reported a landslide victory for Marine Le Pen's far-right party - the National Rally. Taking note of the far-right victory, the two-time president dissolved the National Assembly and called for a snap vote.

The snap elections were held in two rounds. The first round saw a victory for the far-right wing under National Rally. Following the result, major left parties across France decided to form an alliance and block victory for Le Pen, in which they succeeded.

Despite the left win, France saw a hung parliament as no party obtained an absolute majority, which showed a setback for Macron's Centrist Alliance. The result fo the snap vote also paved the way for a coalition government in France for the first time in 22 years.

With a hung parliament, it was up to Macron to choose the next prime minister. However, instead of picking a prime minister from the left coalition, which saw the largest number of votes, Macron picked Barnier.

With this, no-confidence motion, France could see itself without a government once again, leaving Macron (who is currently on a state visit to Saudi Arabia) to pick another name for the Prime Minister.

The political turmoil in France surrounds itself over the budget for the coming year of 2025. Barnier's proposal, which calls for $60 billion of tax increases and spending cuts, is expected to be cut once he is ousted.