Iran Crisis: What’s Driving the Latest Wave of Protests?

If Iran shoots or harms protesters, the United States will have to intervene, US President Donald Trump has warned, as protests in the Islamic Republic entered the twelfth consecutive day and spread across Tehran and other major cities. Iranian authorities have responded with arrests, force, and a near-total internet shutdown, while insisting the unrest is being fuelled by foreign enemies.

But beyond Washington’s rhetoric and geopolitical chess matches, a more fundamental question remains: why are people in Iran protesting at all? Why is Trump so keen to position himself as a defender of demonstrators? And where does Israel fit into a crisis that has laid bare the depth of anger facing Iran’s theocratic leadership under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

At its core, the unrest reflects years of frustration — over economic collapse, international sanctions, rigid religious rule, and a political system many Iranians feel no longer serves them.

A Protest of Anger

What began as anger over economic hardship has grown into a nationwide movement. According to reports by AP and Reuters, unrest has continued despite a heavy security presence, with demonstrators confronting riot police, closing markets, and chanting slogans critical of the political leadership.

Videos circulating before the internet blackout showed crowds demanding economic relief and political change, while authorities accused “rioters” of threatening national stability. TRT reported that 38 have been killed so far, while Reuters reported 25 deaths, and Economic Times had a high toll of 42. With the internet sanctions, and chaotic scenes on the streets of Tehran and other places, the exact toll is difficult to confirm. 

Sanctions and a Crashing Economy

The immediate trigger for the protests lies in Iran’s battered economy.

Crippling international sanctions — particularly those targeting Iran’s oil sector — have severely curtailed state revenues in an oil-rich country that depends heavily on energy exports. Years of conflict in the region spilled over to global markets, resulting in a weakened economy, draining foreign currency reserves and placing enormous pressure on the national currency.

The Iranian rial has plummeted, sharply reducing purchasing power and driving inflation dramatically higher. 1.4 million riyals now equals one US dollar.

Some economic estimates suggest that inflation climbed above 50 per cent, reaching around 52.6 per cent by December 2025, as the cost of basic necessities such as food and medicines surged, according to The National. Separate analyses cited by the Hudson Institute indicate that food prices alone rose by roughly 72 per cent year on year by late 2025, severely damaging the pockets of Iranian households.

While sanctions are a geopolitical tool controlled and enacted by external powers, for the average household in Iran, these sanctions have real-world impacts, including food affordability crises and limited control over finances.

Religious Fundamentalism And State Control

As often happens, what started as protests over economic hardship has broadened to include other discontented groups, notably women. In several cities, chants of “Zan, Zandegi, Azadi” (Women, Life, Freedom) — the slogan that became widely known during the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests — are once again being heard. 

Iran’s system of religious governance — rooted in strict interpretations of Islamic law — has long imposed heavy restrictions on personal freedoms. For many protesters, especially younger Iranians, frustration with clerical rule is inseparable from economic despair.

Women have been particularly visible in the demonstrations, reflecting long-standing resentment over restrictions on dress, behaviour, and public life. Their participation underscores how deeply social grievances run, and how closely they are tied to demands for dignity, autonomy, and reform. Here’s a simpler, easier-to-read version:

Two cases show how Iran’s strict religious rules can hurt women. In 2022, Mahsa Amini, 22, died after being arrested and reportedly beaten by the morality police for not wearing her hijab “properly.” In 2024, Arezu Badri was shot by security forces over a hijab-related issue, leaving her badly injured. These events show how the country’s dress laws put women in danger and have sparked anger among the public.

However, Reuters’ latest update on the protest states young men and the wider youth population are leading the current wave of protests in Iran, a shift from the 2022–23 demonstrations that were largely driven by women. Nearly half of the country is under 30, and many no longer identify with the Islamic Republic’s ideological foundations. Protesters have expressed frustration over enforced social controls and foreign policy choices, arguing that decades-old revolutionary priorities no longer reflect their aspirations. “The collapse is not just of the rial, but of trust,” said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, as quoted by Reuters.

The State Strikes Back

Iran’s response has been swift and forceful.

Security forces have moved to disperse crowds, detain activists, and suppress demonstrations. Human rights groups report multiple deaths and thousands of arrests, including students and young people. Authorities have framed the crackdown as necessary to maintain order, while critics describe it as a brutal attempt to silence dissent.

One of the most consequential steps taken by the government has been the nationwide internet shutdown. On 8 January, access to mobile data and broadband services was sharply curtailed across the country, plunging Iran into a digital blackout.

The move severely limited communication between protesters and cut off real-time reporting from inside Iran. Rights groups and digital freedom advocates say the blackout was designed to disrupt organisation, prevent the spread of images of the crackdown, and shield the authorities from international scrutiny.

Iran has used similar tactics during past unrest, but the scale of the current shutdown highlights how seriously the leadership views the threat.

Trump, Israel, and the war for West Asia control

The unrest unfolds as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again focuses on Iran, seeking to persuade Trump to support or even join Israeli action against Tehran.

Earlier this week, with Netanyahu at his side, Trump said: “Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are, we’re going to have to knock them down.” He added that he would back Israeli military action if Iran continued what he described as its ballistic missile and nuclear programmes.

Whether these statements are meant as psychological pressure on a beleaguered regime or signal a more serious threat is unclear. What is evident, however, is that popular anger at the mullahs is deep and widespread, and growing desperation is pushing Iranians onto the streets despite the likely consequences.

Some Western officials appear to welcome the protests. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, encouraged the demonstrations on X, writing: “The people of Iran want freedom. They have suffered at the hands of the Ayatollahs for too long. We stand with Iranians in the streets of Tehran and across the country as they protest a radical regime that has brought them nothing but economic downturn and war.” Netanyahu made similar appeals during the 12-day conflict in late 2025, urging Iranians to challenge the regime.

Iran currently faces severe vulnerabilities. Its military has been weakened by the loss of senior leadership to Israeli strikes, and its air power and missile systems have been heavily damaged, with nearly a third of its air defence network destroyed. 

For Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the clerical establishment, the protests represent a dangerous convergence of pressures: economic collapse, social rebellion, and international hostility.

The government now faces a difficult choice. Continued repression risks deepening public anger and international condemnation, while concessions could embolden further demands. The internet blackout, arrests, and harsh rhetoric suggest the leadership has opted, at least for now, for control over compromise.

History Repeated?

Iran has seen major uprisings before — from the student protests of 1999 and the Green Movement of 2009 to the nationwide demonstrations of 2019 and 2022 — all eventually suppressed through force, arrests, and information blackouts. Whether this latest wave follows the same path, or marks a deeper and more enduring rupture between the state and its people, remains to be seen. But as Trump gets more aggressive with is ‘campaigns’ in Venezuela, and global political pundits are already listing the next targets of US, Iran would surely e on top of the list, witj Israel in the backseat and Trump as the driver.