How Iran's Invisible Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Is Becoming A Liability For The Regime

Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since his appointment as supreme leader a week after the strike that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the end of February. His complete absence from the main funeral ceremonies, including no written message, has left many Iranians wondering about his plans for the country during a difficult period in the Islamic Republic’s 47-year history.

The new supreme leader, installed with the backing of the Revolutionary Guards, suffered facial disfigurement and other injuries in the same strike, according to senior sources. He has been making decisions from behind the scenes but has not yet been well enough to appear publicly. With hostilities with the United States reigniting this week, questions about his role and health have grown more pressing.

Reuters reports that authorities have cited security concerns for his absence from the week-long funeral ceremonies. While three of his brothers appeared to mourn their father, Mojtaba stayed out of view. Senior sources in Iran have linked the lack of any new image or voice recording since his March 8 appointment to both health and security considerations.

Family representation and continuity

The burial arrangements highlighted the importance of family ties in the leadership of the Islamic Republic. Prayers for the late Khamenei at Iran’s holiest shrine were conducted by his three other sons. These brothers are not regarded as significant political figures and are unlikely to become so, although they have all become senior clerics.

Ali Khomeini, a grandson of the founder of the 1979 revolution, was set to speak on Mojtaba’s behalf at a mourning ceremony on Friday. This move underscored efforts to emphasise continuity within the clerical system. There had been speculation that Mojtaba might appear, at least through a recorded message or new photographs, when his father was buried in the gold-domed shrine.

Mojtaba Khamenei, now 56, had maintained a largely shadowy profile before his selection by a clerical assembly in March. Born in 1969 in the Shi’ite holy city of Mashhad, he grew up during his father’s involvement in the opposition to the US-backed Shah. As a young man he served in the Iran-Iraq war. He later studied under conservative clerics in Qom, attaining the rank of Hojjatoleslam before his elevation to ayatollah upon becoming supreme leader, with no official explanation given for the promotion.

His wife, killed in the February 28 attack, was the daughter of prominent hardline politician and former parliament speaker Gholamali Haddadadel. This connection further strengthened his links to the political elite.

Health, security and public concern

Senior sources say the security risks are substantial after the assassination of his father in the opening US and Israeli strikes of an unannounced war. As the political, strategic, religious and revolutionary figurehead with ultimate authority, Mojtaba may need to demonstrate greater physical capability than his current recuperation allows.

The last official update on his condition came from President Masoud Pezeshkian, who said in May that he had met the leader and that his condition was improving. Two Iranian officials told Reuters that Mojtaba remains actively involved in decision-making and that his wounds are healing fast.

Despite this, his absence is beginning to trouble Iranians. In conversations with Reuters, more than 20 people have voiced concern in recent weeks. “I understand that, from a security standpoint, he should not appear in public. But the country is going through a very difficult time,” said Taghi, 47, a shop owner in Isfahan who asked not to give his family name. “There is a need for the Supreme Leader to be seen. Even if he has been injured, people need to see that there is a leader and that he is running the country.”

A teacher in Tehran expressed similar worries. “The supreme leader’s absence, now that the war is over, will lead to growing uncertainty and disorder in the country, especially after the burial of the late leader,” said Mohammadreza, 51.

Professor Ali Ansari at St Andrews University in Scotland noted the difficulties of succession. “How do you have a charismatic succession when the successor isn’t there? It’s going to be a problem for them even if they ride it out for the time being. It’s not sustainable in the long run.”

Close ties with the Revolutionary Guards

Mojtaba built his influence by running his father’s sprawling office and its network of contacts, while developing close relations with the Revolutionary Guards. Senior Iranian sources told Reuters in March that the Guards pushed through his elevation, viewing him as a more pliant figure who would support their hardline policies. They overcame resistance from some senior political and clerical figures concerned about his limited religious credentials and the appearance of hereditary succession in a republic that overthrew a monarch.

He has strong support within the IRGC, particularly among younger, more radical generations, according to Kasra Aarabi of United Against Nuclear Iran. Mojtaba is also described as very close to parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran’s lead negotiator with the United States. In one of his few public interventions, he cautiously endorsed a memorandum of understanding signed last month by the Iranian and US presidents to end the war.

Unlike his father, who had served as president before becoming leader, or the founding figure Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Mojtaba lacks the same religious standing or independent political base. A 2007 US diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks described him as a key channel of access to his father. The US Treasury sanctioned him in 2019 for representing the supreme leader in an official capacity without formal election or appointment, citing his work with IRGC commanders in the Quds Force and Basij militia to advance regional and domestic policies.

He has never held a formal government position, though he occasionally appeared at pro-establishment events. A widely circulated video in 2024 showed him announcing the suspension of Islamic jurisprudence classes he taught in Qom, which added to speculation about his activities. He bears a physical resemblance to his father and wears the black turban of a seyyed, indicating descent from the Prophet Mohammad.

The Guards continue to hold a firm grip on the country for now. Yet the role of supreme leader is distinct from most other heads of state. Iran’s official ideology sees the holder as the representative on earth of Shi’ite Islam’s 12th imam, who disappeared in the ninth century. Mojtaba’s opinions, authority and capability remain largely unknown, though the Guards are expected to remain central to governance.

Ongoing challenges

Iran remains caught up in conflict despite an on-off truce, with its economy squeezed by sanctions. The possibility of further mass unrest, like the protests violently suppressed in January, adds pressure. Public anger has targeted Mojtaba before, notably during the 2022 nationwide protests following the death of a young woman in police custody over dress code violations.

As supreme leader he holds final authority over foreign policy, national security and the nuclear programme. He could encounter resistance from citizens who have repeatedly demanded greater social and political freedoms. While he communicates through occasional written messages, the lack of public appearances raises questions about how long a theocratic leader can remain invisible.

The Revolutionary Guards appear to control the immediate situation, but the sustainability of this approach is in doubt. With Mojtaba Khamenei still recovering and staying out of sight, the Islamic Republic faces uncertainty at a time when visible leadership is widely seen as necessary. Whether his absence becomes a lasting liability will depend on how quickly he can establish a public presence and address the country’s multiple pressures.

(With inputs from Reuters)