AP-NORC poll: US Support for Israel Weakens Deepening Partisan Divide Over Gaza

Support for Israel among Americans has declined sharply nearly three years into the war in Gaza, with a new AP-NORC poll showing growing criticism of Israel's military campaign, particularly among Democrats, and increasing political divisions over one of Washington's closest allies.

The survey by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that about one-third of US adults believe Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians during the war in Gaza, an allegation made by some human rights organisations but strongly rejected by Israel and the US government. Around two in 10 respondents said Israel had not committed genocide, while about half said they did not know enough to form an opinion.

Among Jewish Americans, opinions were also divided. Around 30% said Israel had committed genocide, while 49% said it had not.

The findings underscore a marked shift in American public opinion since Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which killed about 1,200 people and saw 251 hostages taken to Gaza. Since then, more than 73,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and militants.

The poll also found that many Americans remain uncertain about the conflict. Roughly four in 10 respondents said they did not know enough to judge whether Israel's initial military response to Hamas or its ongoing military operations were justified. Among those with an opinion, most believed Israel's initial retaliation was justified, but a majority said its current military campaign was not.

Views within the Democratic Party have shifted most dramatically. About 58% of Democrats now believe the United States is "too supportive" of Israel, up from 45% in an AP-NORC poll conducted in January 2024. At the same time, 62% said Washington is "not supportive enough" of Palestinians, compared with 49% two years ago. The shift has been especially notable among older Democrats, narrowing the gap with younger party members who have long been more critical of Israel.

Republicans largely continue to back Israel, although younger conservatives appear more divided. Overall, 60% of Republicans said current US support for Israel is "about right", while only 13% described Israel's actions as genocide. However, Republicans under 45 were more likely than older Republicans to say the United States is "too supportive" of Israel and to view Israel's actions more critically.

The survey also highlighted poor public perceptions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Only 20% of US adults viewed him favourably, while 38% held an unfavourable opinion and 41% said they did not know enough to judge. Netanyahu's ratings were even lower among Jewish Americans, with about six in 10 expressing an unfavourable view.

By comparison, NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani, an outspoken critic of Israel, received a favourable rating from 27% of US adults, while 28% viewed him unfavourably and 44% had no opinion. Among Jewish adults, 44% viewed Mamdani favourably, compared with 39% who viewed him unfavourably.

The AP-NORC survey was conducted between June 11 and June 17 among 3,040 US adults, including 1,022 Jewish respondents, using NORC's nationally representative AmeriSpeak Panel.