Running With The Hare...

A BJP victory was always on the cards. But perhaps even the BJP supportersweren't  quite prepared for this clear a mandate. As an upbeat BJP went into celebration mode,utter despondency gripped the Congress in Gujarat after the results of the Vidhan Sabha elections depicted a comfortable continuation of Narendra Modi in governance for the third time in succession.
It was no surprise really that jubilant BJP workers would take to the streets in droves celebrating with the bursting of fire crackers and the distribution ofsweets. And they did, taking over Ahmedabad, as it were, in the process.

If the crowd at the state BJP headquarters in Ahmedabad swelled by the hour, the enthusiasm at the state camp of the opposition Congress dwindled in direct proportion as the day woreon. Narendra Modi himself decided to soak in the glow of a hard fought election battle and subsequent victory by scheduling a public meeting in the labour dominated Khokhra Mehmdavad suburb of Ahmedabad on Sundayevening. He will be sworn in at a high profile ceremony on December 27.

While most people in the state were betting on Modi’s return to power, the general feeling was that it would be with a considerably whittled down majority against the previous best of 127 in a House of182. However, with Modi virtually single handedly propelling the party to a figure in fair proximity to the previous best,the results have only gone to add to his seeming  invincibility. "We were very sure that our chief minister will deliver Gujarat to the party with stellarhonours”, said the BJP spokesperson in Ahmedabad on Sunday. But perhaps theydid not think that it would be with as many as 117 seats.

If the Congress got its calculations wrong Modi seems to have worked hismathematics well.  The Congress had worked to weld opposition against Modi by weaving the dissidents opposed to him intoits own fabric. The dissidents led by former chief ministers Keshubhai Patel, who hassince been served a notice by the party, and Suresh Mehta, who has already quit, had worked hard through a high voltage campaign to turn farmers and notably the Patels against the BJP. 

Saurashtra region where the dissidents had worked tirelessly, was the area which was expected to turn the tide against the BJP while the reclaiming ofcentral Gujarat was expected to put Congress firmly in the saddle. In hindsight, it is now clear that thePatels in Saurashtra did not bite the bait, while North Gujarat went overboard in accommodating Modi-- even uprooting many of the Congress sitting legislators. Central Gujarat did return to theCongress fold but the numbers did not add up to offset the losses that the party suffered elsewhere.

The results are clear in that the BJP rebels have been rejected by theelectorate. That they chose to make common cause with the Congress targeting Modi did not go down well with the voters in Saurashtra, itwould now appear. It is this miscalculation by both the Congress and the rebels that has cost the Congressdearly, says Rajkot based journalist Mukesh Vyas.

Political observers in Saurashtra also believe that it is Keshubhai Patel’s dilly-dallying that created a credibility problem for the dissidents in their ownstronghold. Modi came through as the one who was leading from the front, unmindful of the tremendous odds ranged againsthim. Patel, on the other hand, seemed as someone trying to have his cake and eat it too.He remained within the BJP and yet sought to undercut the very party he was with rather than decisively opting for theopposition. This did not show him and some of the other rebel leaders who adopted a similar approach in fairlight. To use another cliche, by running with the hare and hunting with thehound only destroyed their own credibility. 

No wonder, most who pitched into the fight whether as independent or as part of the Congress have beenworsted. Former chief minister Suresh Mehta is unrepentant even as he admits that the dissidents have failed to dentModi’s support base. "Perhaps we were not able to convince the people enough to make them see thetruth. But then lies repeated over and over again do not become the truth.Time will tell and we will also redouble our efforts”, he maintainsdefiantly.

Mr Shankersinh Vaghela, union textile minister and oldtime political foe of Modi also felt that a review of the Congress effort and strategy will need to be done to pinpoint the areas of weakness and make amends accordingly”,he added. 
Modi on the other hand , calculated well and truly the future course of action.His targeting of women and youth as the most potent part of his armoury to battle his rivals has been bang on target.When the dust of the fight has settled and the figures are analysed, it will be found that Modi had made significant inroads in winning over the youth and the women voters.Both made up in enthusiasm what they lacked in politicaleducation.