Arsenal Vs Nottingham Forest, Premier League: Preview, Prediction, Key Players

There is never a dull day when it comes to Nottingham Forest.

Just as it appeared as though the dust may have settled on the furore surrounding Nuno Espirito Santo and his rift with the club's leadership, news broke earlier this week that the Portuguese was on his way out at the City Ground.

Forest confirmed Nuno's departure in the early hours on Tuesday. Around 12 hours later, Ange Postecoglou had been appointed.

Dismissed by Tottenham after leading them to Europa League glory, but a 17th-place Premier League finish, last season, the Australian is now back in a job.

Postecoglou's first match comes against Spurs' fierce local rivals, with Forest kicking off the Premier League weekend away at Arsenal.

After delivering on his promise to win a trophy in his second season at Spurs, Postecoglou will no doubt have full belief that he can fill the big shoes that Nuno has left.

Using Opta data, we delve into the key numbers ahead of Saturday's clash at Emirates Stadium.

What's expected?

Forest have won just two out of 16 Premier League matches against Arsenal (D4 L10) and both wins came at the City Ground, in 1996-97 and 2022-23.

In all competitions, Arsenal have won their last six home games against Forest by an aggregate score of 19-2.

The Gunners are unbeaten in 14 games on home soil against Forest (W10 D4) since a 3-1 defeat back in March 1989.

And what about Postecoglou's record against Arsenal? Well, Forest fans might want to look away now.

Postecoglou faced the Gunners four times in the Premier League over the past two seasons, and did not pick up a single win, taking just one point from the 12 on offer.

All that being the case, it is not surprising that the Opta supercomputer is making Arsenal, who have not lost successive league matches since December 2023, the clear favourites.

Arsenal are given a 66.9% win probability, while Forest came out on top in just 15% of the model's simulations. The chance of a draw is 18.1%.

Arteta's set-piece reliance?

Arsenal won their opening two games, scoring six goals and keeping two clean sheets in the process, but the Gunners were edged out by Liverpool before the international break.

Going to Anfield is never easy, especially for Mikel Arteta, who is yet to win there as a manager, but his pragmatic approach has come in for some criticism in recent weeks, and he will be eager for Arsenal to fire on all cylinders.

Much of that criticism has come due to Arsenal's struggles to create quality openings on a consistent basis from open play.

Arsenal rank second in the league, behind Chelsea, for expected goals from set-pieces but they rank second bottom, ahead of only Sunderland, for expected goals in open play this season.

In fact, 50.1% of their xG has been from set plays, the highest ratio in the division.

It is this set-piece reliance, or over-reliance, that Forest will be hoping they can use to their advantage, but it is not as though Arsenal do not have world class players that can turn it on when needed.

Their set-pieces are a fantastic weapon, but in Martin Odegaard and Eberechi Eze, Arsenal have two brilliant attacking midfielders, who have each assisted eight league goals since the start of last season.

Noni Madueke, meanwhile, impressed for England in their wins over Andorra and Serbia. He netted his first Three Lions goal on Tuesday in Belgrade and has contributed to four goals in nine caps.

Declan Rice is also coming off the back of a fruitful international window. After not assisting a single goal in any of his first 55 England caps, Rice now has six assists in his last 13 appearances for the Three Lions. He set up two of England's five goals against Serbia.

Big shoes to fill

In terms of playing style, it is hard to imagine two more contrasting approaches than those of Nuno and Postecoglou.

Nuno built a solid, counter-attacking team that would sit in a mid-block and look to pounce, utilising the creativity of Morgan Gibbs-White, the hold-up play of Chris Wood and the electric pace of Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga.

Forest spent 60% of their league games last season in a mid block. Spurs, on the other hand, spent 45% of their time in such a set-up, with 37% in a high block.

Postecoglou's high-octane, high-pressure style came with plenty of risks, and by and large, the rewards were not worth it in the league last season.

Only the three relegated teams and Wolves conceded more top-flight goals than Spurs (65), who ranked fourth-worst in the division for expected goals against (xGA) at 64.4.

Nuno, on the other hand, oversaw a team that kept 13 clean sheets, a tally bettered by only Liverpool (14), while Forest's xGA of 49.5 was almost 15 lower than Spurs.

While Nuno's dismissal has come about as a result of an off-field disagreement, it's not as though Forest's form has been brilliant.

They have taken four points so far this season, but in total have lost five of their past 11 Premier League fixtures, which is only one fewer defeat than in their previous 24 games (W15 D3 L6).

Indeed, among current Premier League sides, only Fulham (12) are on a longer run without a clean sheet than Forest (11); away from home, Forest have gone nine without a shutout since keeping three in a row in December and January last season. So maybe Nuno's defensive resolve had somewhat deserted him.

Forest have made the most passes ending in the final third this season (471) and have played the most passes into the box (114) of any Premier League team. Forest also top the charts for crosses (85), with their average of 28.3 per game far higher than their average last season (16.3 per game).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Viktor Gyokeres

Gyokeres has had something of an indifferent start to life in the Premier League.

The Sweden international was fantastic against Leeds United, scoring twice in a 5-0 romp at the Emirates, but struggled to make an impact against Manchester United or Liverpool.

However, he is in great form in home matches.

Gyokeres has scored 10 goals in his last seven home league appearances for both Sporting CP and the Gunners. The only two players to score two or more goals in both of their first two home Premier League appearances are David Hirst in August 1992 and Sergio Aguero between August and September 2011.

Nottingham Forest – Elliot Anderson

Anderson shone for England over the past week, having made his first two senior appearances, so he will be coming into this clash full of confidence.

The former Newcastle United man has made the most line-breaking passes of any midfielder in the Premier League this season (32), while only Fulham's Alex Iwobi (five) has made more line-breaking passes into the opposition penalty area than Anderson's four.