Pakistan must beat UAE on September 17 to qualify for the Super 4s.
A defeat or boycott means instant elimination, with UAE progressing instead.
Rain is unlikely in Dubai, so Pakistan cannot rely on shared points
Asia Cup 2025: Pakistan's Super 4s Qualification Scenario – Explainer
Asia Cup 2025: Pakistan’s qualification hopes for the Super 4s hinge on their final group game against UAE. A win sends them through, a loss knocks them out, while a boycott would hand UAE qualification on a platter. With India already through and Oman eliminated, the battle for the second spot is now down to one high-stakes clash in Dubai
Summary
Pakistan’s journey in the Asia Cup 2025 has hit a critical point after their seven-wicket loss to India on Sunday. With one win from two matches in Group A, their progression to the Super 4 stage is still in their hands but comes with a few dramatic twists.
India have already qualified, Oman are eliminated, and Pakistan’s fate now hinges on their clash against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Wednesday in Dubai.
Current Group A Standings (After September 14)
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Points | NRR |
| India | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +4.793 |
| Pakistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1.649 |
| UAE | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2.030 |
| Oman | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3.357 |
Scenario 1: Pakistan Win Against UAE
This is the most straightforward route. If Pakistan beat UAE on September 17, they will finish with 4 points from three matches, progressing alongside India to the Super 4s. Their superior net run-rate already gives them a cushion, but a victory eliminates any complications.
Scenario 2: Pakistan Lose Against UAE
If Pakistan slip up against UAE, they will finish with just 2 points. UAE would move to 4 points and qualify alongside India, leaving Pakistan stranded. The loss would mean instant elimination, regardless of their superior net run-rate, as points are the deciding factor before NRR.
Scenario 3: Pakistan Boycott the Match
The biggest off-field twist came after Pakistan threatened to boycott their game against UAE if the ICC does not remove referee Andy Pycroft, following the “no-handshake” saga against India. If Pakistan follow through, it will be considered a walkover, handing UAE full points.
In that case, Pakistan will remain stuck on 2 points, while UAE will leap to 4 points and qualify. India and UAE would then take the two spots from Group A.
Scenario 4: Rain Or Abandonment (Unlikely)
While the weather forecast in Dubai predicts clear skies, if the game is washed out or abandoned, both teams will receive one point each. That would leave Pakistan on 3 points and UAE on 3 points. Pakistan’s strong net run-rate (+1.649) compared to UAE’s (-2.030) would then carry them through. However, with no rain expected, this remains only a theoretical possibility.
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What Pakistan Must Do
The equation is simple: win against UAE and book their Super 4s spot. Any misstep—whether it’s a defeat or boycott—will end their campaign. With Oman already eliminated and India sitting comfortably at the top, the final group game is effectively a do-or-die clash for both Pakistan and UAE.
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