Won't Be Significant Drop In 2026-27 Kharif Output Despite El Niño, Drought & Floods: Chouhan

Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday said there will be no significant drop in Kharif foodgrain production in the 2026-27 crop year (July-June) despite concerns over El Niño, and drought and floods in parts of the country.

Addressing the media after a two-day national conference on preparedness for the upcoming Rabi crop season, Chouhan said planning for the Rabi season is being done with the challenges posed by El Niño, a weather phenomenon that affects rainfall in India.

He said the government began comprehensive preparatory measures as early as April.

The Rabi foodgrain production target for the 2026-27 crop year (July-June) has been set at 177.72 million tonnes, higher than the actual output of 174.51 million tonnes. Wheat is the main Rabi crop.

Chouhan said that although Kharif acreage has declined for some crops, the overall sown area remains broadly comparable to last year. The rainfall deficit currently stands at around 12 per cent, while a situation is generally considered drought only when the shortfall exceeds 20 per cent over the relevant period, he said.

"I do not believe that production will be significantly impacted by this level of deficit," he said, adding that final production estimates will be released shortly.

The Kharif foodgrain production target was kept at 196.21 million tonnes for the 2026-27 crop year (July-June), higher than the actual output of 174.14 million tonnes achieved in a year-ago season.

The steepest decline in acreage has been in paddy, where the area under cultivation has dropped by about 16.32 lakh hectares. Maize, soybean and cotton have also recorded reductions. Acreage has risen under urad, bajra, jowar, sesame, sunflower, moong and tur.

"This indicates a shift towards pulses and coarse cereals," the minister said.

Contingency Planning

Reduction in cultivated area has been reported from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Heavy rain and floods in these states have affected crops across about 6.11 lakh hectares, and detailed damage assessments are under way.

Asked about the global forecast of El Niño turning "very strong" by late 2026, Chouhan said the government is holding detailed discussions with states on crops and varieties to be planted under the prevailing conditions.

Crop planning is being adjusted for regional variations in rainfall, water availability and soil moisture, and contingency measures will be adopted wherever drought conditions arise, he said.

"Although rainfall is currently deficient by around 12 per cent, there is no major crisis at the national level," he said, adding that the difficulties are concentrated in particular regions.

Asked whether more states were reeling under drought apart from Karnataka and Maharashtra, the minister said information received so far points to concerns in these two states, parts of Andhra Pradesh, including Rayalaseema and adjoining areas, parts of Telangana and parts of Rajasthan.

Detailed reports from the states are awaited. A Central team is scheduled to visit Karnataka on October 3 at the state's request.

The Maharashtra Chief Minister has also sought a Central assessment team, which will be sent, Chouhan said. He added that he would personally visit the affected states and remain in constant contact with their governments.

"The immediate objective is to ensure that agricultural fields do not remain fallow," he said.

The Centre will help states identify seeds and crop varieties that require less water, have a shorter maturity period and suit local soil and weather conditions, and will facilitate coordination among states and other stakeholders, he said.

Fertiliser Supply

On fertilisers, Chouhan said that despite significant fluctuations in prices, which have nearly doubled in some cases, availability remains adequate.

"There is no shortage of fertiliser in the country, and sufficient supplies will be available for the Rabi season," he said.

Based on requirements submitted by states for 2026-27, the total fertiliser requirement has been estimated at 380 lakh tonnes. The current opening stock exceeds 163 lakh tonnes, substantially higher than the 122 lakh tonnes available at the beginning of last year's Rabi season.

The minister also said farmers should not be held solely responsible for air pollution.

"While stubble burning contributes to pollution to some extent, it is incorrect and unfair to portray it as the primary cause of pollution or to harass farmers on that basis," he said, adding that the issue must be addressed in its broader context, taking into account other sources of pollution.

Minister of State for Agriculture Bhagirath Choudhary and Ramnath Thakur, Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra and ICAR Director General M L Jat were present.