Shia-Sunni Divide A Key Issue In November J&K By-Poll Election

The divides between Shias and Sunnis, Hindus and Muslims, along with slow progress on National Conference promises in the 2024 elections, will play a key role in the upcoming by-elections for two Jammu and Kashmir assembly seats on November 11.

By-elections for Nagrota and Budgam are being held after the passing of BJP leader Devender Singh Rana and Omar Abdullah vacating Budgam to contest in Ganderbal following the previous polls.  

On the Budgam seat, in the past, the vote bank of different parties, as well as the Shia and Sunni factors, have played a key role in the elections. In contrast, on Nagrotra, the vote share of Hindus and Muslims, along with the developmental performance of the candidates, has shaped the election outcome. 

The elections will also serve as a litmus test for Omar’s 11 months in office. Omar has stated that the dual control on administration, with major powers retained by the Lieutenant Governor, Manoj Sinha, has impacted governance in Jammu and Kashmir. The CM has faced criticism from opposition parties and even the NC’s own MP, Aga Ruhulla, for being too soft towards the Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre. Before contesting the parliamentary elections, Ruhulla remained the MLA from the Budgam seat.

On the two seats, voting will take place on November 11, while the counting will occur on November 14. According to the poll schedule issued by the Election Commission of India (ECI), the election notification will be issued on October 13, and the last date for filing nominations is October 20. The date of scrutiny has been fixed for October 22. The last date for withdrawal of candidature is October 24.  

On the Nagrota assembly seat, BJP’s Devender Singh Rana, who left NC to join BJP, received 48,113 votes. Joginder Singh of the National Conference (NC) polled 17,641 votes, and Congress candidate Balbir Singh secured 5,904 votes in the October 2024 elections. Congress and NC, in a pre-poll alliance, did not field candidates against each other except in five seats, including Nagrota, where they engaged in a friendly contest.

Congress chief spokesperson Ravinder Sharma says talks will be held with alliance partner National Conference to decide if the parties will field separate candidates for the two seats. “We are in talks with the NC locally, and our party leadership in New Delhi will make the final decision on seat-sharing with the National Conference,” he says.

Congress party’s 2024 contesting candidate, Balbir Singh, however, says that the NC-Congress alliance should field a joint candidate to prevent the division of votes. “There were nearly 30 per cent votes of Muslims in the constituency in the election earlier, but after the delimitation, their vote share was reduced to nearly 15 per cent in the 2024 polls. In order to fight the BJP’s policies, the NC and Congress shouldn’t put up candidates against each other,” he says.

In the last elections for the Budgam seat, Omar Abdullah received 35,804 votes, Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) received 17,445, and Nisar Ahmad Pal of the Peoples Democratic Front (PDF) received 3,365.

Pal says his decision to contest the elections depends on the People’s Alliance for Change (PAC), a political front that includes his party, PDF’s former Jamat-i-Islami (JeI) leaders and the People’s Conference.“If I am in the race again, I will highlight the neglect of Budgam constituency—poor roads, a lack of public infrastructure, and projects diverted elsewhere in the district. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s government has failed to deliver on key promises, such as waiving electricity fees and providing youth employment. All these will be central to my campaign," he says.

On the Budgam seat, the Awami Itihaad Party (AIP) has announced that it will field its own candidate, making the contest a multi-candidate fight. AIP chief spokesperson Inam-un-Nabi stated, “The Political Affairs Committee deliberated on the forthcoming bye elections for Budgam and Nagrota assembly constituencies. After the discussion, it was decided that AIP will contest both seats. Candidate announcements will be made soon.”