Record El Niño Threatens Indian Agriculture, Global Temperatures: Met Office

Britain's Met Office warned on Friday of a powerful El Niño that could make 2027 the hottest year on record. Pacific waters are expected to heat up more than 3°C above normal, with sea-surface temperatures currently 2.6°C above the rolling 30-year average.

The Climate Brink dashboard aggregates forecast models using data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It shows the event is on course to peak at a 3.9°C anomaly this November, well above the roughly 3°C anomaly of the 2015-16 record-holder.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, outlined the severity to the BBC. "We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees—that is unheard of in modern climate records," Scaife said. He added that even a 2°C rise is considered a "really big event."

The anomaly dwarfs previous benchmarks. "We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event," Scaife said in a Met Office blog, adding: "I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts."

Unprecedented Global Heat

The naturally occurring climate phenomenon known as El Niño involves warming sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This triggers cascading shifts in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall across the globe every two to seven years, with events lasting nine to 12 months.

The strongest influence on global temperatures typically occurs the year after onset. This lag is why 2027, not 2026, is the year most likely to set the record.

Nick Dunstone, another Met Office scientist, said the coming year is "very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record". In 2024, global temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C pre-industrial limit set under international climate commitments.

Scaife said the projected conditions will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences. "These are not short-term weather forecasts. We’re talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here," he said.

Severe Impact On India

The Met Office informed that the event is already causing well below normal rainfall in India. The IMD projects India's full monsoon season at 90% of the long-period average, its lowest level in 11 years.

OP Sreejith, scientist and head of the climate monitoring and prediction group at IMD, said there is a high possibility 2027 beats 2024 globally. "For the Indian region, average temperature may not cross the 2024 record temperature. It will depend on the 2027 monsoon and ENSO conditions after the monsoon season then," Sreejith said, adding India should still see strong heatwaves next year.

Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor at the University of Maryland and visiting professor at the Kotak School of Sustainability, IIT-Kanpur, said agricultural stress could extend through both this year’s Rabi season and into 2027.

"2023 and 2024 were fairly bad years too, due to El Nino. This year too, for India, the Rabi output may suffer," Murtugudde said. "The government is already taking safeguards, like the action on edible oil and sugar."

"In 2027, for India, a lot will depend on how the monsoon performs, but spring next year may also bring a lot of heatwaves, which will again impact crops," Murtugudde said.

Global action remains unlikely. "Words will be spoken, but globally, we are already seeing countries with their own problems," Murtugudde said. He added that domestic heatwaves, power grid strains, and the West Asia conflict hamper progress, meaning "Europe is also falling short of its targets and commitments".

The phenomenon has historical roots. The term El Niño, Spanish for "the boy" or "the Christ Child", was coined by 19th-century fishermen from Peru and Ecuador. They used it to describe unusually warm ocean currents reducing their fish catch just before Christmas. It usually saps the monsoon in India.