Outlook Explains | Why Shinde Remains Crucial Despite BJP's Numerical Dominance

Three years after the dramatic split in the Shiv Sena that led to the formation of the current Mahayuti government in Maharashtra, the equation between Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde continues to be one of the most closely watched political relationships in the state. While both leaders project unity in public, the distribution of real power between them is far more nuanced, shaped by numbers, organisational strength, administrative control, and long-term political calculations.On paper, the BJP is clearly the dominant partner in the alliance with 132 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly.

The Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) holds 57 seats, making the ruling coalition numerically comfortable. However, political strength in Maharashtra can not be measured by numbers alone. The Shiv Sena symbol and its emotional connect with a large section of Marathi voters still give Eknath Shinde significant leverage.The BJP, under Fadnavis, has built a formidable organisational network across the state over the last decade, particularly in urban and semi-urban areas. While the BJP has the larger numbers, Shinde’s faction retains a strong hold on the traditional Shiv Sena vote bank, especially in Mumbai, Thane, and parts of Konkan and western Maharashtra. This dual power structure makes the alliance both strong and delicate at the same time.

Who Controls The Government Machinery?

As Shinde enjoys the formal authority of the top executive post. He chairs meetings, makes bureaucratic appointments in several departments, and holds important portfolios such as Urban Development, Housing, and Tourism. However, Fadnavis controls some of the most crucial departments, including Home, Finance, Revenue, and Planning. This gives Fadnavis substantial influence over law and order, financial decision-making, and district-level administration. Many bureaucrats and political observers note that while Shinde is the public face of the government, Fadnavis often plays a decisive role in major policy announcements and administrative reshuffles.

Why Shinde Remains Indispensable

Despite the BJP’s larger numerical strength, Shinde remains indispensable for the stability of the Maha Yuti government. His faction provides the crucial Shiv Sena identity that helps the alliance reach traditional Marathi voters who may be wary of a pure BJP government. Without Shinde, the BJP would struggle to maintain the “Maha Yuti” narrative and could face strong anti-incumbency as a single-party dispensation. Shinde also commands personal loyalty from a large section of Shiv Sena workers who view him as the true ideological successor to Bal Thackeray’s legacy. His ability to manage local leaders, keep rebel factions in check, and maintain alliance cohesion gives him significant bargaining power within the government. For the BJP, removing or sidelining Shinde at this stage could trigger fresh political instability and damage the party’s image as a reliable alliance partner in Maharashtra.

BJP's Long-term Calculations

The BJP’s strategy in Maharashtra appears to be guided by strategic patience and long-term consolidation. Party leaders believe that over the next three years, the organisational strength and cadre base of the BJP will gradually overshadow the Shiv Sena factions. By allowing Shinde as one of the main player in the government, the BJP is successfully avoiding immediate anti-incumbency and keeping the alliance intact for the crucial 2029 Assembly elections.At the same time, Fadnavis continues to build his image as a strong administrator and mass leader through governance and infrastructure projects. The long-term calculation seems to be that by 2029, the BJP would have expanded its base sufficiently to either dominate the alliance completely or contest independently from a much stronger position. This approach allows the BJP to reap the benefits of power while slowly shifting the balance in its favour.With three years remaining for the next Assembly polls, both Shinde and Fadnavis are working quietly to strengthen their respective positions.

Shinde is focusing on consolidating his faction, expanding welfare schemes, and strengthening his appeal among core Marathi voters. Fadnavis, on the other hand, is concentrating on governance delivery, large infrastructure projects, and expanding the BJP’s footprint in rural and semi-urban Maharashtra. The real test for the alliance will come when serious seat-sharing discussions begin closer to the 2029 elections. How the power equation between Shinde and Fadnavis evolves in the coming months and years will likely decide not just the future of the Maha Yuti government but also the broader political landscape of Maharashtra for the next decade.