India Juggles Its Equation With US And Russia

It is a testing time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and India as US President Donald Trump cranks up pressure on New Delhi over tariffs. As Trump runs out of patience with Russia, he is accusing New Delhi of fueling Russia’s war machine and funding the Ukraine war.

Trump has brought Russia into the India-US equation. Moscow has been a time-tested friend siding with New Delhi at a time when Washington was a fast friend of Pakistan’s and not willing to hear

India’s side of the story. Since India’s economic reforms of 1991, when the country’s markets were open for investments, the situation changed dramatically. From being on opposite sides during the Cold War, fear of a rising China led to wide ranging cooperation between the two countries, on all fields including defence. India appeared to be moving closer to the US and the West. But during the Ukraine war, India broke rank.

Despite tremendous pressure from both the Biden Administration and EU leaders, India steadfastly refused to condemn Russian action in Ukraine at the UN Security Council. This disappointed many in the US and Europe.

But now with the India-US bilateral agreement not yet finalized, Trump is on attack mode. He is frequently targeting India. Trump has given Prime Minister Modi a stark choice : Stop buying discounted Russian oil and arms or face the consequences. What exactly the secondary sanctions on Russian goods are, has not yet been announced but this will be in addition to the 25 percent tariff slapped on Indian exports since August 1.

Trump on Monday once again hit out at India in his social media platform Truth Social by posting "India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.’’

The Modi government that had steadfastly tried not to be react to every Trump pronouncement decided late Monday that it needed to put out its side of the story.

Randhir Jaiswal, the spokesman for the Ministry of External Affairs finally put out a statement, refuting many of the charges that the President and his team has drummed up against New Delhi in recent weeks. Referring to US targeting of India, as ``unjustified and unreasonable,” Jaiswal exposed the hypocrisy of US and European leaders and called out the West on its double standards. ``The European Union in 2024 had a bilateral trade of Euro 67.5 billion in goods with Russia. In addition, it had trade in services estimated at Euro 17.2 billion in 2023. This is significantly more than India’s total trade with Russia that year or subsequently.

European imports of LNG in 2024, in fact, reached a record 16.5mn tonnes, surpassing the last record of 15.21mn tonnes in 2022.” He went on to next point to America’s own record of trade with Russia. `` Where the United States is concerned, it continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilizers as well as chemicals.’’ The statement went on to say ``Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security.’’ While lecturing and hectoring India, America and Europe continued to buy essentials from Russia, despite the sanctions.

Frustrated at not getting Putin to end the Ukraine war, Trump is hoping to exert utmost pressure on Russia, by slapping secondary sanctions on all countries buying Russian oil. India and China are the biggest importers of oil and other petroleum products from Russia.

Oil Bonanza

As is well known, India has reaped a windfall from importing cheap oil from Russia. Before the Ukraine war, India bought just around 0.2 per cent of oil. By May 2023, the level came up to 40 per cent. Last year Russia supplied India with one-third of its crude oil imports, or about 550mn barrels.

Moscow continues to supply staples to India’s defence forces, though New Delhi has diversified its arms procurement and also buys military hardware from the US, France and Israel. Trump’s diktat is simple, India can no longer play footsie with the US and its Western allies and continue to have one leg on the Russia-China and the BRICS camp, which he has dubbed an anti-American forum.

Will Modi bow to mounting American pressure or stand firm on India’s strategic autonomy? While China too is in Trump’s crosshairs, Beijing made clear its national interest remain paramount and has

signaled a far less conciliatory posture than India has done.

Stakes High for India

India’s position is not as strong as China’s, considering the Chinese and American economy is closely intertwined. New Delhi’s cautious approach to Trump is understandable as the stakes are high for India. The US is New Delhi’s biggest trading partner, bilateral trade last year( 2024) was around $129 billion. India needs American technology and investments. Since 2000, successive Indian governments as well US administrations have worked hard on extending ties. Is Trump ready to sacrifice all that goodwill? Perhaps yes, as he attempts to browbeat India into signing a bilateral trade agreement.

``The government should not engage in verbal spats. It should maintain a dignified posture. But those seen either as close to the government, its thinking or those civil society members who are politically credible should react strongly so that the message is driven home that the public opinion here is upset at US’s hectoring. It is important to send the message that trust in the US is rapidly eroding”, says Kanwal Sibal former foreign secretary and ex Indian envoy to Russia. But he cautions ``It is critical that Indian purchases of Russian oil should continue. Otherwise we will lose control over our foreign policy.’’