Assam Set To See Tight Fight As Alliances Firm Up, Battle Lines Sharpen

Perceptions in Assam are changing ahead of the Assembly elections, and alliances are crystallising on both sides. After weeks of speculation, the Congress, led by Gaurav Gogoi, has sealed its pre-poll alliance with Akhil Gogoi's Raijor Dal.

The broader opposition front now includes the Congress, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), CPI(M), CPI(ML) and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC), while Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF remains outside the alliance. According to the seat-sharing pacts across the 126 constituencies, Congress will fight in 101 seats, Raijor Dal and CPI(M) in 11, AJP in 10, APHLC in two, and CPI(ML) in one, along with one friendly contest. In addition, both Congress and Raijor Dal have agreed to a friendly contest in two constituencies - Gauripur and Goalpara East.

The BJP-led NDA, however, remains confident. The party will contest in 89 seats, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in 26, and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) in 11.

The United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), a former ally, has exited the alliance citing ideological differences and is contesting independently. This is notable because it was an ally in the incumbent NDA government, and party’s chief Promod Boro was elected to Rajya Sabha just a week ago with the support of BJP and three AIUDF MLAs.

The development is significant because the party from the Bodoland region has remained a partner in the state government since the formation of the BPF and the signing of the Bodoland Peace Accord in 2003, and even before. In the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) region, an autonomous area that sends 15 MLAs to the Assembly, the rivalry between the UPPL and BPF adds another layer of complexity.

Amidst this, the AIUDF has announced candidates for 21 seats. Party president Badruddin Ajmal will contest from the Binnakandi constituency, marking his return to state politics. This time, the party is going solo after its attempts to join the Congress-led Opposition alliance were rejected. The AIUDF faced a major setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, not winning a single seat. Ajmal, who has served as an MP three times, also lost in Dhubri.

“This election will be very interesting,” says Prof Akhil Ranjan Dutta, former Head of the Department of Political Science at Gauhati University. There was perception earlier that it would be a one-sided contest and that the government would return comfortably. “But that is changing in a big way,” he adds. “It is no longer a one-sided contest. The contest is much closer. Even if the ruling party wins, it cannot be taken for granted.”

“It has become a bipolar contest mostly,” Dutta says, “with the BJP and its regional allies on one side, and the Congress-led alliance—including Raijor Dal, Left parties and hill-based groups—on the other as AIUDF will not have much of an effect.” He adds that until recently, there was uncertainty over whether the Congress–Raijor Dal alliance would materialise, but with the agreement now in place, the election is clearly “taking on a bipolar character”. He underlines that Ajmal is being seen as a vote splitter in favour of the BJP and he is growing old, so it’s unlikely that people will vote for him.

In Upper Assam, a crucial battleground with more than 40 seats, the Opposition alliance may gain traction. Lurinjyoti Gogoi of the AJP will contest from Khowang, while Gaurav Gogoi faces senior BJP leader and former Speaker Hitendra Nath Goswami in Jorhat. “The coming together of leaders from the Ahom community, dominant in several constituencies, could strengthen the opposition’s position among ethnic voters,” says journalist and political observer Sandipan Talukdar.

“The ruling BJP–AGP alliance is very strong and robust,” adds Talukdar. “What was missing since the 2021 election was Opposition unity. There was uncertainty over whether it would materialise, but in the end, the major Opposition parties have come together.”

He adds that for weeks there was speculation over whether the alliance would take shape. “Even the ruling party was watching closely. The Chief Minister himself indicated even on Thursday, 19 March 2026, that some seat decisions including that of Shiv Sagar would depend on whether the alliance happened. That shows its influence,” Talukdar notes.

The coming together of key Opposition leaders, in fact all the three Gogois, is expected to have an impact in Upper Assam, explains Talukdar, with possible ripple effects in Lower Assam, giving the Opposition a fighting chance in seats such as Kamalpur, Sipajhar, Nalbari and Tihu.

In the BJP camp, even before seat-sharing decisions were announced, a few BJP and AGP members switched sides based on ticket allocations, pointed out Talukdar. Bhupen Ray was named the BJP candidate for Abhayapuri days after defecting from the AGP. Basanta Das from Naoboicha joined AGP on Thursday, while Prakash Das had moved to the AGP earlier in the week, seeking a nomination from the Hajo–Sualkuchi seat.

Within the BJP, however, candidate selection has triggered internal dissent. Even before seat-sharing was finalised, several leaders switched sides based on ticket allocations. The unrest has been described as “unprecedented” in Assam politics.

Soon after the BJP released its candidate list, protests surfaced, with some leaders openly criticising the leadership. In Dholai, sitting MLA Nihar Ranjan Das resigned within hours of the announcement.

Senior leader Jayanta Kumar Das also expressed dissatisfaction, alleging that “old BJP workers are being sidelined in favour of former Congress leaders”. He even indicated plans to float a new party with other “denied candidates”.

There are signs of unease elsewhere too, including the denial of a ticket to minister Nandita Gorlosa, though there are rumours that she will contest too.

 “BJP is now being called ‘CongJP’,” Dutta adds. Adding to this, Talukdar notes that at least 37 of the BJP’s announced candidates are former Congress members, including the Chief Minister himself.

“The narrative of the elections has changed. Secondly, the allegations against Gaurav Gogoi over his alleged visit to Pakistan and supposed links with the ISI have suddenly disappeared,” says Dutta. “Until about 15 days ago, the main campaign plank was to portray Gogoi as ‘Pakistani’. Now, that has faded.”

He adds that despite repeated attacks by the BJP and the Chief Minister, Gogoi “did not lose his cool”. “The way he handled the accusations without getting provoked seems to have disappointed the BJP camp,” Dutta explains.

Despite these developments, Talukdar cautions against writing off the BJP. “They have a strong organisational network on the ground,” he says, adding that while the contest is now tighter, it is too early to say the outcome will differ from 2016 and 2021.

In the outgoing Assembly, the BJP holds 64 seats, with support from AGP, UPPL and BPF members. The Congress leads the opposition with 26 MLAs, followed by the AIUDF.

Polling for the 126-member Assembly will be held on April 9, with results to be declared on May 4.