Trump's Midterm Math Isn't Adding Up As He Turns On His Aides

US President Donald Trump is blaming senior aides for a faltering Republican midterm strategy, questioning campaign spending, redistricting and candidate choices as his party faces the possibility of losing control of Congress in November. The disagreements have centred on James Blair, a longtime Trump aide who runs the president’s super PAC MAGA Inc., and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, according to three people familiar with internal discussions.

Trump is not on the ballot on November 3, but has repeatedly urged supporters to treat the election as a contest involving him, hoping to mobilise voters who might otherwise stay home. The outcome could determine how much room he has to pursue his legislative agenda during the final two years of his term. A Democratic-controlled House would also have the power to conduct investigations and issue subpoenas, increasing scrutiny of his administration.

Republicans Face A Fight To Retain Congress

Opinion polls suggest Democrats are favoured to win the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains too close to call. Losing the House would complicate Trump’s legislative agenda and give Democrats greater scope to investigate his administration.

Trump has embarked on an active campaign schedule to help Republican candidates, but has largely avoided acknowledging his own role in shaping the strategy or the effect of his unpopularity on candidates in competitive races.

His approval rating is at the lowest point of his presidency, with voter concerns over high prices and dissatisfaction with the war in Iran weighing on his standing, Reuters reported on October 17.

Trump has previously sought to distance himself from electoral setbacks. Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, he said he deserved “all the credit” if Republicans won but “should not be blamed at all” if they lost. He has also reminded supporters that the president’s party typically struggles in midterm elections.

However, Trump helped devise and drive several of the strategies now under scrutiny, including redistricting and candidate choices influenced by his personal loyalties or grievances. His criticism of aides comes as Republicans face the prospect of electoral losses that could limit his influence over Congress.

Blair And Wiles At The Centre Of Internal Disputes

Much of the friction has focused on Blair’s management of campaign funds and Wiles’ oversight of the political operation. Trump has questioned why campaign spending has failed to improve Republican polling, while advisers have blamed one another for the party’s difficulties.

Wiles has pointed to Blair, while Blair has criticised the White House legislative affairs team, according to one person familiar with the discussions.

“What’s really happening is a circular firing squad,” the person said, describing the growing divisions within the president’s political operation.

Trump publicly defended Wiles on Friday, describing her as “smart” and “tough” and saying she would remain in her position. “Susie is here, and she’s going to be here for a long time,” he said.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle rejected the sources’ characterisation of the internal tensions, calling them “armchair experts peddling their baseless speculation”. Wiles did not respond to a request for comment from Reuters.

Blair’s future appears less certain. Trump had previously said Blair was expected to return to the White House after the midterms, describing his departure as a “short leave of absence”. However, two people familiar with the discussions told Reuters that his return now appeared unlikely. One source said: “He’s not coming back. That is not happening.”

Wiles’ position is less clear. She played a central role in Trump’s 2024 election victory and has been credited by allies and aides with bringing greater discipline to the White House during his second term. One source close to the White House said Trump “may be annoyed at certain things but she has effectively kept that machine going”.

Bosnia Consulting Trip Raises Questions

The tensions became more public after Blair and Chris LaCivita, who co-managed Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, travelled to Republika Srpska, a self-governing region of Bosnia, in early October. Reuters reported, citing The New York Times, that the two men received substantial payments to advise the regional government ahead of local elections.

Senior White House officials questioned why Blair was undertaking lucrative work overseas when he was expected to oversee the final stretch of the Republican campaign, according to three people cited by Reuters. One source said Wiles had approved the trip without informing Trump, raising questions about how closely she was supervising his political advisers.

Two people familiar with the matter told Reuters that Trump’s broader concern was that Blair’s outside work had distracted him from his political responsibilities.

Trump distanced himself from Blair and LaCivita in a Truth Social post on October 7, describing them as “outside consultants” and warning that he would “terminate them, immediately!” if he found a conflict of interest.

Blair rejected the criticism, saying: “All of this mudslinging is ridiculous, and counterproductive. President Trump and me are focused on helping Republicans win in November. Every other Republican should be doing the same.”

LaCivita defended the campaign’s efforts, pointing to its “money, message and motivation”. He dismissed the criticism as “sniping from unnamed cowards who've never been in a fight”.

$200 Million In Campaign Spending As Texas Redistricting Faces Doubts

Trump has questioned why Republican polling in pivotal races has not improved despite MAGA Inc.’s campaign spending, which public records put at $200 million so far. It remains unclear whether he will approve additional spending before election day, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

He has also pressed political aides and advisers to explain why the redistricting effort he personally promoted has failed to deliver clearer Republican gains, two sources told Reuters.

Texas is a particular concern. Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map in an effort to gain seats, but the strategy depends partly on Hispanic voters turning out at levels comparable to those seen in the 2024 election. Polling suggests that support may be harder to sustain amid concerns about the cost of living and Trump’s handling of the economy.

Some Republicans fear the revised boundaries could backfire, leaving incumbents more vulnerable rather than giving the party the electoral advantage it sought. One source familiar with the discussions said: “The redistricting diced up the Trump voters too much.”

With control of Congress at stake, Trump faces the challenge of mobilising Republican voters while managing disagreements among the advisers responsible for his midterm strategy. A Republican defeat could constrain his legislative agenda and intensify scrutiny of his administration.