Trump Hits 31% Approval As Democrats Open 12-Point Lead Ahead Of Midterms

US President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 31%, its lowest level in either of his presidential terms, as dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy grows two weeks before the November 3 congressional midterm elections, a Reuters/Ipsos poll has found.

The poll, which closed on Monday, October 19, also found Democrats leading Republicans by 47% to 35% among registered voters asked which party they would support if congressional elections were held that day. The 12-percentage-point advantage was the widest recorded during the current election cycle and could strengthen Democratic hopes of winning control of the House of Representatives or the Senate.

The findings come amid concerns over the economic impact of the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, which began in February, and rising petrol prices. Reuters linked these economic pressures to the decline in Trump's approval rating.Democrats widen lead ahead of November 3 elections

Trump’s approval rating fell by one percentage point from the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted two weeks earlier. The latest survey found that 31% of Americans approved of his performance in office, the lowest level recorded during either of his presidential terms.

The Democratic lead on the congressional ballot has also widened. In the previous poll, Democrats led Republicans by seven percentage points, with 44% backing Democratic candidates and 37% supporting Republicans.

Reuters reported that the latest 12-point gap could bolster Democratic hopes of gaining control of both chambers of Congress. For Republicans, losing either chamber could complicate Trump’s legislative agenda during the final two years of his term.

The generic congressional ballot measures national voting preferences rather than predicting individual race results. As Reuters noted, national polls “do not capture all the nuances” of state and district contests, where local factors can influence which party wins.

Women voters drive shift in congressional ballot

Women voters are a significant factor in the widening Democratic advantage. According to Reuters, much of the decline in support for Republican congressional candidates was driven by a larger share of women saying they would vote for Democrats.

The poll found that 50% of female voters favoured Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 32% who preferred Republicans. Men also favoured Democrats, but by a smaller margin.

The poll does not establish why women favour Democrats by this margin or whether the gap will persist until Election Day.

Economic dissatisfaction weighs on Trump

Economic concerns remain central to Trump’s declining approval rating. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 68% of Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy, including 37% of respondents who identified as Republicans.

When asked which party would manage the economy better, 40% of respondents chose Democrats, compared with 33% who favoured Republicans. The figures indicate that Democrats have an advantage on an issue likely to influence voters’ decisions in the midterms.

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran and the resulting surge in petrol prices have added to economic pressures on households, Reuters reported.

The poll findings establish the extent of dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic performance, but they do not independently prove that the Iran conflict or higher fuel prices alone caused his approval rating to fall. Other economic concerns may also influence how voters assess the administration.

What the poll says about the midterms

The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted online from October 16 to 19 and included 1,679 US adults, among them 1,279 registered voters. Ipsos reported a margin of sampling error of ±2.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level for the full adult sample, with higher margins for smaller subgroups.

These margins matter when interpreting changes in approval ratings and voting preferences. Trump’s approval rating declined by one percentage point from the previous poll, while the Democratic lead on the congressional ballot widened from seven to 12 points. The size of these changes should be considered alongside the survey’s margins of error.

The poll captures voter sentiment ahead of November 3, but the national Democratic lead does not determine control of Congress, which will depend on individual House and Senate races.