Saudi Arabia’s $24.3 Billion F-35 Deal: What It Means For The Middle East

The United States has approved a possible sale of F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft to Saudi Arabia in a package estimated at US$24.3 billion, according to a State Department notification issued on Thursday. The proposal covers 48 conventional take-off and landing F-35s and 49 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines, including one spare, alongside software, communications equipment, electronic-warfare support, maintenance, training and other services.

The approval does not mean the aircraft have been sold or that deliveries can begin. The notification now enters a 30-day congressional review period before a final Letter of Offer and Acceptance can be offered.

The F-35 request puts Washington at the intersection of three concerns: Saudi Arabia's security requirements, Israel's legally protected qualitative military edge and the risk that sensitive US technology could be exposed to China.

What Was Approved

The State Department's Bureau of Political-Military Affairs notified Congress of a possible Foreign Military Sale covering 48 F-35 Lightning II aircraft and 49 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines, including one spare. The estimated total value is US$24.3 billion.

The US$24.3 billion estimate covers the aircraft and a wider package of software, communications and cryptographic equipment, electronic-warfare support, spares, maintenance, training, simulators, technical documentation and engineering and logistics support.

The F-35 is a fifth-generation multirole fighter built around low-observable stealth, advanced sensors, information fusion and networked operations. The Saudi request is for the conventional F-35A variant, designed for conventional take-off and landing.

The proposed sale would give Saudi Arabia a low-observable combat-aircraft capability not currently operated by the Royal Saudi Air Force.

Why Does Saudi Arabia Need It Now?

The notification comes as Saudi Arabia faces renewed security pressure from Yemen.

On September 16, the Houthi movement claimed it had shot down a Saudi F-15 over Yemen's Marib province using what it described as a locally made surface-to-air missile. Saudi authorities did not confirm the claim. The Saudi-led coalition separately said it had intercepted and destroyed a Houthi drone near Mecca.

The Houthi advance along Yemen's Red Sea coast and around Mayun Island creates a separate vulnerability for Saudi Arabia and regional shipping.

Saudi Arabia has also sought air-defence assistance from France, the UK, Pakistan and Egypt as its stocks of missile interceptors come under pressure, according to Outlook India's reporting.

The kingdom's energy infrastructure has faced pressure as well. Saudi Arabia recently shut its 1,200-kilometre East-West oil pipeline after attacks that Riyadh attributed to Iraqi militias, according to Outlook India's reporting. Reuters also reported that some September-loading Saudi crude cargoes bound for Europe were cancelled and Yanbu loadings suspended.

These developments help explain the wider security environment around the F-35 notification. But the aircraft would address only part of that problem.

A fighter aircraft does not substitute for an integrated missile-defence system. The F-35 would add fighter capability; it would not replenish the Patriot and other missile interceptors Saudi Arabia is seeking as it comes under pressure from drones and missiles.

Saudi Arabia's pursuit of both capabilities therefore reflects two different requirements: improving its ability to conduct operations in contested airspace and defending its territory and infrastructure against incoming attacks.

What About Saudi Arabia's F-15s?

The F-35 would expand, rather than replace, Saudi Arabia's existing fighter fleet.

The Royal Saudi Air Force received its final F-15SA aircraft in 2020, completing a previous US Foreign Military Sale. The F-15SA is an advanced version of the F-15 designed for air-to-air and air-to-ground missions.

Washington separately approved a possible US$3 billion F-15 sustainment sale in February 2026. That package covers spare and repair parts, software, training, technical documentation and US government and contractor logistics support.

That case is separate from the F-35 request. It also shows that the F-15 remains an important part of Saudi air power even as Riyadh seeks a newer fifth-generation capability.

Why Is China A Problem?

The most sensitive issue surrounding the package is not only what Saudi Arabia would receive, but who else could potentially gain access to the technology.

Saudi Arabia has deepened defence and technology ties with China. The New York Times reported, and Outlook India subsequently reported, that US intelligence officials had raised concerns over possible Chinese access to sensitive F-35 technology through Saudi Arabia.

The concerns reportedly include Chinese military access to Saudi facilities and the use of Chinese technology in telecommunications and other infrastructure connected to the F-35 programme.

The issue is particularly sensitive because the F-35 is not simply an aircraft. The Saudi package includes software, technical documentation, secure communications and other systems that form part of the aircraft's wider technological architecture.

The United States has an end-use monitoring system for defence transfers. Recipients are required to protect US-origin defence articles and prevent unauthorised transfer or misuse.

The specific security arrangements that would apply to the Saudi F-35 programme have not been publicly detailed.

Israel's Edge

The other major constraint is Israel.

US law requires any certification for the sale of defence articles or services to a Middle Eastern country other than Israel to include a determination that the transfer will not adversely affect Israel's qualitative military edge, or QME. For major defence equipment, the determination must also assess the effect on the regional strategic and tactical balance and Israel's capacity to respond to threats.

Israel's F-35 programme includes the F-35I Adir. In 2024, Israel signed an agreement for 25 additional aircraft, taking its planned fleet to 75, with deliveries beginning in 2028. In March 2026, Israel's Ministry of Defence approved plans for a fourth F-35 squadron.

The Israeli Air Force has also used the F-35I in combat. In March, the IDF said an Israeli F-35I shot down an Iranian YAK-130 during an aerial engagement over Iran.

The State Department's notification says the proposed sale will not alter the military balance in the region.

The QME requirement therefore places Israel at the centre of Washington's assessment of the Saudi sale.

What Would The F-35 Actually Change?

For Saudi Arabia, the biggest change would be access to a different class of combat aircraft.

The F-35A combines low observability with advanced sensors, electronic warfare and information-sharing capabilities. It is designed to gather and fuse information while improving survivability in heavily defended airspace.

That would give the Royal Saudi Air Force capabilities that are different from those provided by its current F-15 fleet.

But the F-35 would not solve every problem currently facing Saudi Arabia. It would not by itself replenish missile-interceptor stocks or protect oil infrastructure from every drone or missile threat.

That distinction matters as Riyadh seeks additional air-defence support while also pursuing a fighter designed for more sophisticated air operations.

The Congressional Hurdle

The sale must now go through the formal congressional review process.

Under the Arms Export Control Act, Saudi Arabia is subject to a 30-day statutory congressional review period. The final Letter of Offer and Acceptance cannot be offered until that period expires unless Congress adopts a joint resolution of disapproval.

The Thursday notification therefore begins another stage of the transaction rather than completing the sale.

Next Steps

The proposed F-35 sale comes as Saudi Arabia faces pressure from Yemen, seeks additional air-defence support and manages expanding defence and technology ties with China.

The aircraft would add a low-observable fighter capability Saudi Arabia does not currently operate. It would not resolve the missile and drone threats that have put pressure on the kingdom's air-defence requirements.

The possible transfer also carries a separate technological challenge. Washington would have to protect sensitive F-35 systems while supplying them to a country whose defence and technology relationship with China has expanded.

At the same time, the United States must preserve the qualitative military edge it is legally required to protect for Israel.

The congressional review will determine whether the proposed sale moves to the next stage. If it does, Washington will have to manage the Saudi defence requirement alongside the statutory QME requirement for Israel and the security concerns surrounding F-35 technology.