Outlook Explains | What Happens To Iran's Nuclear Programme Now?

On June 15, the United States and Iran agreed on the framework of a peace deal that extends the current ceasefire for 60 days. The agreement is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on June 19.

US President Donald Trump announced that he had authorised the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council later confirmed that a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) had been reached with Washington.

While the full text of the MoU is expected to be released after the signing, the draft reportedly includes a commitment by Iran to never acquire nuclear weapons and to maintain the status quo on its nuclear programme — meaning no further uranium enrichment — until a final agreement is reached within 60 days of the MoU being signed.

Iran's Nuclear Programme Now?

Iran’s uranium enrichment programme has long fuelled concerns in the US and among its allies that Tehran could preserve the capability to eventually develop nuclear weapons, since enriched uranium can be used both for civilian nuclear energy and for weapons production.

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran capped enrichment at 3.67%, enough for commercial nuclear fuel. But after US President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, Iran gradually raised enrichment levels. That agreement had eased sanctions in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear activities and international inspections. 

By June last year, it was enriching uranium to 60% purity and had accumulated a stockpile of around 400kg, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),  well below the roughly 90% needed for weapons-grade uranium, but significantly closer than civilian requirements, which are typically up to 5%.

Israel argued Iran was approaching the capability to produce a nuclear weapon and cited that concern during strikes on Iranian facilities alongside the US earlier this year. However, the UN nuclear watchdog has said it had no credible evidence of a coordinated Iranian nuclear weapons programme.

Iran, a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), maintains that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes and says it does not seek nuclear weapons.

Iran’s nuclear programme has remained at the centre of diplomatic negotiations, sanctions and international inspections for decades. While the IAEA recently conducted a routine inspection at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, it said access to several other Iranian nuclear facilities had been restricted for nearly a year.

What is uranium enrichment?

Uranium enrichment is the process of increasing the concentration of uranium-235, a naturally occurring radioactive isotope. Enriched uranium can be used to fuel civilian nuclear power plants, but at much higher purity levels it can also be used to produce nuclear weapons.

Low-enriched uranium,  typically enriched to 3–5% purity, is sufficient for generating reactor fuel. Weapons-grade uranium, however, generally requires enrichment levels of at least 90%.

Iran’s enrichment programme has long been at the centre of international concerns over whether its nuclear activities remain civilian or could support weapons development.

The issue was also central to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), negotiated under the Obama administration. Under that agreement, Iran agreed to reduce its uranium stockpile by 98% to 300kg, cap enrichment at 3.67% purity and limit the number of centrifuges used to process uranium. In return, the US lifted sanctions affecting Iran’s oil, trade and banking sectors.

What remains unresolved?

Despite the agreement to end the conflict, major questions remain over how the deal will address Iran’s nuclear programme, particularly uranium enrichment.

Before the war began on 28 February, Washington and Tehran had already been engaged in negotiations. Talks in Oman on 6 February were described by Iran as a “good beginning”, while later discussions in Geneva led both sides to signal progress. But disagreements persisted over what a final agreement should include.

Trump has repeatedly argued that Iran must surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles — which he has referred to as “nuclear dust”. Iran, however, has maintained that “zero enrichment” is a red line and would violate its sovereign rights.

Further negotiations on nuclear issues are expected, with the eventual agreement likely to be compared with the 2015 nuclear deal later abandoned by Trump.

Why are the next 60 days critical?

Trump reiterated on Sunday that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon”, while senior Pakistani officials told the Associated Press that nuclear negotiations are expected to continue over the next 60 days. Trump also told the New York Times that Iran could face renewed US military action if talks fail to produce an agreement.

In a joint statement, the E4 grouping — the UK, France, Germany and Italy — backed Washington’s position, saying: “We are prepared to lift relevant sanctions in response to clear, verifiable steps by Iran on its nuclear program.”

Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear programme is peaceful and has not publicly agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, believed to remain buried beneath three nuclear sites heavily damaged by US strikes last year.

The outcome of the talks carries political weight for Trump, who withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated under Obama. Following the collapse of the deal, Iran accelerated uranium enrichment and accumulated more than 400kg of material enriched close to weapons-grade levels. 

The future of that stockpile is expected to be one of the central issues in the next phase of negotiations. Washington and Tehran now have 60 days to achieve what had eluded them both before the US-Israeli strikes last year and again before the outbreak of war in February.

"Likely on Friday, at a location to be determined... a new round of negotiations between Iran and the United States to reach a final agreement will begin," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.

"In the final agreement, decisions will be made on the nuclear issues and the lifting of sanctions."

(With inputs from Reuters, BBC, AP, France 24)