Mark Carney In India:  Will His Visit  Help Mend Bilateral Ties After Contentious Trudeau Years?

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney began his four-day visit to India starting February 27, marking his first trip to the country since assuming office last year. The visit is being seen as strategically significant, particularly as India and Canada, both influential middle powers, look to recalibrate their positions amid US tariffs and other arbitrary trade measures.

Carney’s approach to foreign policy is expected to differ from that of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, during whose tenure bilateral relations between the two countries had hit rock bottom.

He is scheduled to arrive in New Delhi on March 1. On March 2, Carney will hold delegation-level talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Hyderabad House. “The visit comes at an important juncture in normalization of India-Canada bilateral relations,” the statement by the Ministry of External Affairs read. 

It further said that the two Prime Ministers have agreed to pursue a constructive and balanced partnership grounded in mutual respect for each other’s concerns and sensitivities and growing economic complementarities.

Canada is an important partner for India as it is home to the highest Sikh population outside of Punjab. As of the 2021 federal census, there are more than 1.8 million Canadians of Indian origin.

Canada has launched an expansive trade diversification strategy aimed at reducing its dependence on the United States, with plans to double exports to non-US markets over the next decade. A central pillar of this effort is India, with Ottawa targeting a doubling of bilateral trade to $70 billion annually by 2030.

In 2024, total two-way merchandise trade between Canada and India stood at $13.3 billion. Of this, Canadian exports accounted for $5.3 billion, while imports from India reached $8.0 billion.

However, the ties are just on the mend after the institutional disagreements between the two countries after the two countries expelled their top diplomats as the row intensified over the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canada-based Sikh leader labelled a terrorist by India. He was shot and killed in Surrey, British Columbia in June 2023. 

Canada had claimed that they were investigating allegations of Indian agents’ and the Indian government's direct involvement in the June 2023 killing. Ottawa had also paused talks on a proposed trade treaty with India.

India rejected the allegations as “absurd and motivated.”  

India claimed that allegations were a method to shift focus from Khalistani “terrorists and extremists,” who have been provided shelter in Canada.

Later, the meeting between the two Prime Ministers during the G20 Summit in 2023 was also replete with awkward moments. Modi conveyed “strong concerns about continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada.”

In an MEA statement, India said that Canada is “promoting secessionism and inciting violence against Indian diplomats”, and threatening the Indian community in Canada and their places of worship.

In response, Canada said it will defend "freedom of expression, freedom of conscience and peaceful protest."

Trudeau said at a press conference in New Delhi that Canada will be “there to prevent violence, to push back against hatred," adding that the actions of the few "do not represent the entire community or Canada."

Sections of the media closely analysed the optics of the interaction between the two leaders, speculating over whether Trudeau appeared to pull his hand back during a handshake and whether India had deliberately delayed fixing a meeting with the Canadian Prime Minister. Reportedly, in the run-up to the Summit, Trudeau had also mentioned to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that New Delhi had “excluded” him from the summit.

In October 2024, India said that diplomatic communication from Canada suggested that the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats are ‘persons of interest’ in a matter related to an investigation, calling it a “political agenda of the Trudeau Government that is centered around vote bank politics”.

However, now the diplomatic tensions have eased, the two countries jointly announced the reinstatement of their respective High Commissioners in 2025.

In a recent interaction with reporters, a senior Canadian government official said there is no current evidence linking India to violent crimes or security threats on Canadian soil. “I think we could say we’re confident that that activity is not continuing,” the official stated.

Under Carney, and amid mounting tariff pressure from its largest trading partner, the United States, Canada has moved to stabilise its relationship with India. Carney invited Modi to the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, last year, where the two leaders held a bilateral meeting on the sidelines. Subsequently, Canada’s Foreign Minister Anita Anand met her Indian counterpart in October as part of continued diplomatic engagement.

Both sides have since indicated their intent to reset ties, with the longer-term goal of negotiating and concluding a comprehensive trade agreement.