Jaishankar And Rubio Meet In KL As India-US Set To Steady Ties

Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Kuala Lumpur has come at a critical moment for India–US relations, as the two sides try to repair ties strained by tariffs, Russian oil, and shifting regional equations. Washington’s renewed outreach to Pakistan and hint of a thaw in ties with China could change regional dynamics for New Delhi. 

“Glad to meet @SecRubio this morning in Kuala Lumpur. Appreciated the discussion on our bilateral ties as well as regional and global issues,” Jaishankar posted on X after the meeting. India and the US are hoping to have a bilateral trade agreement in place by the end of the year. 

In recent months, relations were marred by Washington’s 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff, and an additional 25 per cent tariff on Russian oil. Trump claims that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured him that New Delhi would end the purchase. That could happen with US sanctions against two of Russia’s largest oil companies. Secondary sanctions on companies doing business with these two entities have not yet been announced, but are likely to follow. The US had earlier used the same tactics  to stop countries from buying Iranian oil. 

The Pakistan Angle

But New Delhi’s problems with the US are not confined to tariffs alone. India’s pushback on Trump’s claims of being a peacemaker during the Operation Sindoor standoff with Pakistan is a major issue. Trump has repeatedly claimed that he was instrumental in stopping the war. Add to this Trump’s growing closeness to Pakistan, his constant praise of Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has sent alarm bells ringing in South Block and irked India. Washington is well aware of Indian concerns, and ahead of his meeting with Jaishankar, Marco Rubio had said that US relations with Washington were not at the expense of “deeper” ties with India. However, the statement is neither here nor there as it is quite the right thing to say ahead of an important meeting with his Indian counterpart. 

It is well known that the US and Pakistan have had excellent relations in the past, more so with the Pakistan army. After all, the Pakistan military played a crucial role during the fight against Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan and continued to work with the US in its war on terror, despite accusations by the American generals of playing both sides. However, all that is now  past, and Trump  is prepared to turn the page.

Nobody is certain whether it is Pakistan’s decision to nominate him for the Nobel Prize, or the trade and energy partnership agreement, under which the US will collaborate on oil exploration in Pakistan, following Trump’s announcement of a deal to develop Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves.” India is naturally concerned about the Trump administration’s move to woo Islamabad. Jaishankar is likely to have raised New Delhi’s concerns during the discussion on the region. 

Trump-Xi Meet  

India, like the rest of the world, is waiting for the outcome of the meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in South Korea on October 30. This will be the first meeting between the two during Trump’s second term. Officials of the two sides that met on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur are hopeful that an agreement will be reached.

“We are moving forward to the final details of the type of agreement that the leaders can review and decide if they want to conclude together,” Jamieson Greer, the United States trade representative, told reporters in Kuala Lumpur.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said that China will resume buying soybeans from the US, which had totally stopped in September. That will come as a huge relief to the administration, as farmers are a huge constituent of Trump’s MAGA movement.

But for India, the larger question remains: what will  a new equation between the US and China mean for New Delhi’s strategic ties with Washington?  Successive US administrations have backed India as a bulwark against China’s aggressive moves to establish itself as the paramount power in Asia. Trump, in his first term, was enthusiastic about India as a counterweight to China’s rise. 

The QUAD, the grouping of the US, India, Japan and Australia, was rejuvenated during the first Trump administration to contain China. The Quad was an essential ingredient of that move. However, today, not much is heard of the QUAD. A summit was scheduled in India towards the end of the year, but there is no buzz about the Quad any longer.  

While the US and China, as the two most powerful countries in the world, will remain rivals, a tactical shift during Trump’s term could offset New Delhi’s importance to the US. Much will depend on how the talks between Trump and Xi go on Thursday. It is also true that in the long term, the US-China rivalry will continue. But if the two leaders work out  a wider political agreement, India will have to play second fiddle, at least till the end of Trump’s term.