Israel Holds Polls Amid Uncertainty Over Netanyahu’s Future, Coalition Numbers

Israel is holding parliamentary elections on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeking to retain power amid debate over the government’s handling of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, the subsequent wars and its domestic and foreign policies.

The election is widely seen as a test of Netanyahu’s leadership, as opposition leaders, including former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and former prime minister Naftali Bennett, seek to challenge his right-wing coalition.

Opinion polls indicate neither bloc is assured of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government.

How the Israeli Electoral System Works

Israel, roughly the size of north-eastern India’s Mizoram state, uses a nationwide proportional representation system, with the entire country serving as a single electoral constituency to elect the 120 members of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

Voters do not elect individual members of parliament. Instead, they vote for closed party lists. This system allows numerous political parties to compete for seats in the legislature.

To enter the Knesset, a party must cross the 3.25 per cent electoral threshold, a requirement that often prompts pre-election alliances and mergers.

The Knesset serves a four-year term, but elections can be held early if it votes to dissolve itself, fails to approve the state budget within the prescribed period, or a new government cannot be formed.

The party winning the most seats does not automatically form the government. After the election, the president consults political factions and appoints a lawmaker to form a government. The candidate must secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers to form a government.

Netanyahu’s Leadership, October 7, and Legal Troubles

Netanyahu, leader of the right-wing Likud party, has served as Israel’s prime minister for nearly 19 years across three separate periods since 1996.

He seeks to retain power after a period marked by the October 7 attack, which took place three years ago, and the multiple military campaigns that followed.

The Hamas-led assault in 2023 killed around 1,200 people in Israel and triggered the war in Gaza, which subsequently widened into a broader regional conflict involving Israel, Iran and other armed groups.

Following the attack, Israel launched a large-scale military campaign in the Gaza Strip, involving airstrikes, ground operations and restrictions that severely disrupted civilian life.

According to Gaza’s health ministry, more than 74,000 Palestinians have been reported killed and over 175,000 injured since the start of the war.

Security and accountability for the October 7, 2023, attack are central issues in the campaign.

Netanyahu also faces charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery, which he denies. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him in 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The Opposition Challengers and Key Political Players

Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces, leads the centrist Yashar party and has emerged as a principal challenger to Netanyahu. He previously served as an observer in Netanyahu’s war cabinet but resigned in June 2024 after criticising the government for lacking a clear war strategy.

Eisenkot has positioned himself as an alternative on governance while maintaining a hard line on security. His party has performed strongly in some opinion polls, though the opposition faces the challenge of assembling a viable coalition.

Bennett, a former prime minister, is leading the B’Yachad electoral alliance, which includes former prime minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party. A right-wing politician who opposes Palestinian independence and supports Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, Bennett has also criticised Netanyahu’s handling of security and governance.

Bennett briefly served as prime minister in 2021 under a power-sharing arrangement with Lapid. Their alliance is among the opposition forces seeking to replace Netanyahu’s government.

Other important political players include Yair Golan’s left-leaning Democrats, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu and Arab-led parties such as Ra’am and the Joint List.

On Netanyahu’s side, far-right parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, along with ultra-Orthodox parties, are key coalition partners.

The election campaign is being shaped by questions over the future of the war in Gaza, relations with the United States, the threat posed by Iran and Israel’s international standing.

While the leading contenders differ on Netanyahu’s leadership and domestic governance, most share broadly similar positions on security and oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state in the foreseeable future.

The Ultra-Orthodox Conscription Crisis and Judicial Reform

The election also comes amid disputes over exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox men, the role of religious parties in government and concerns over the independence of democratic institutions and the judiciary.

Most Jewish Israeli men are subject to compulsory military service. But ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, men studying in religious seminaries historically received broad exemptions or deferments.

The issue has intensified during wars, as the military faces manpower demands and reservists serve longer.

Haredi leaders argue that full-time religious study should be protected, while opponents say the system places an unequal burden on those who serve.

Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in 2024 that blanket exemptions could not continue without legislation.

Ultra-Orthodox parties such as Shas and United Torah Judaism have been influential coalition partners, seeking protection for religious education, public funding for their institutions and exemptions from military service.

Their support can be crucial to forming a parliamentary majority. United Torah Judaism broke with Netanyahu’s coalition amid the dispute over military-service exemptions, while Shas has said it will not support a future government without legislation regulating the status of religious seminary students.

Netanyahu’s government has also pursued controversial judicial changes that would increase elected politicians’ influence over judicial appointments and limit aspects of judicial review.

These issues have strained Netanyahu’s coalition and remain important in negotiations over a possible government.

Uncertain Path to a Parliamentary Majority

Opinion polls indicate that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition has a clear path to the 61 seats needed for a majority.

The outcome may therefore depend on smaller parties crossing the electoral threshold and on coalition arrangements negotiated after the vote.