How US-Iran Tensions Are Putting Iraq In A Difficult Position

Iraq is under increasing pressure to balance its ties with the United States and Iran after Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's visit to Washington coincided with fresh US calls to disarm Iran-backed armed groups and a warning from one of those factions that it would fight alongside Tehran if war breaks out.

The visit was intended to deepen economic cooperation and advance plans for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Instead, it also highlighted the competing demands Baghdad faces as it tries to maintain working relations with Washington and Tehran while keeping Iraq out of a wider regional conflict. As Al Jazeera reported, the meetings in Washington and the statements that followed made clear the difficult choices confronting the Iraqi government if tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate.

Economic agenda meets security concerns

US President Donald Trump welcomed al-Zaidi to the White House and pledged closer economic cooperation, with both leaders committing to expand ties in Iraq's oil and gas sector.

A well-informed source told Al Jazeera that Iraqi officials are also scheduled to meet members of the US administration and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to the source, who asked not to be named, Iraq is seeking to secure an IMF loan of up to $8bn.

The visit also reflected Washington's political backing for al-Zaidi. Earlier this year, Trump publicly backed al-Zaidi, a businessman with no previous political experience, while opposing former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for the post. Al-Maliki, who is widely viewed as being close to Iran, later withdrew from contention.

The Iraqi government had earlier said it expected several oil and gas agreements to be signed during the visit.

Trump described al-Zaidi as "young", "handsome" and "a fantastic champion, a new champion".

"Iraq has tremendous potential because of their oil and because of other things, but because of their oil, and we’re going to be doing a lot of deals," Trump said.

Militias remain a sticking point

Security concerns ran alongside the economic discussions.

Trump and al-Zaidi said the remaining US troops in Iraq, believed to number fewer than 2,000, would leave the country by September 30. Al-Zaidi also said armed factions operating across Iraq would disarm by the same deadline.

However, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth later urged Iraq to move against Iran-aligned groups.

In a post on X after meeting al-Zaidi, Hegseth said Iraq "must assert its sovereignty and disarm the Iran-aligned militias" that he blamed for repeated attacks on US forces during the US-Israel war on Iran.

At the same time, Kataib Hezbollah, one of the largest groups within Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), signalled that it would support Tehran if the conflict widened.

"If a war is launched against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the participation of the resistance forces will be immediate and certain. This decision is rooted in our ideology and is not open to negotiation," Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a Kataib Hezbollah official, said, according to Iran's Fars news agency.

According to Al Jazeera, Baghdad now faces pressure from both Washington and Tehran as it seeks to avoid being drawn into a wider regional conflict while relying on US investment and energy partnerships and maintaining deep political, religious and economic links with Iran.

Why Iraq's balancing act is becoming harder

Analysts say Iraq cannot afford to alienate either Washington or Tehran.

"Baghdad is courting Washington, but it will not tolerate its territory being used as a launching pad for attacks against Iran," Inna Rudolf, a senior fellow at the Centre for Statecraft & National Security at King's College London, told Al Jazeera.

"While keen to revive and deepen ties with the United States, successive Iraqi governments have been careful to preserve a functional relationship with Iran, one grounded in long historical, religious, commercial and social ties."

About 60 percent of Iraq's population is Shia Muslim, and Iran has developed close ties with many Iraqi Shia political parties, religious institutions and armed groups. Those relationships continue to give Tehran significant influence in Iraqi politics.

Rudolf also pointed to the role of Iran-aligned political and security actors within Iraq's institutions.

"That creates a dual-tracking relationship: formal state diplomacy seeks stable, pragmatic engagement with Tehran, while parts of the political and security landscape maintain autonomous channels of influence."

"The result is a managed interdependence: cooperation on trade, energy and cross-border social ties coexists with mistrust, domestic contestation, and the persistent risk that armed resistance factions could act independently of Baghdad’s preferences."

She warned that a further escalation between the US and Iran would create immediate risks for Iraq.

"First, it could produce direct security spillovers: Iran-aligned factions that resist disarmament or security-sector reform might strike from Iraqi soil at regional targets, inviting reprisals that violate sovereignty and endanger civilians — every strike would invite retaliation, and every retaliation wounds an already fragile settlement."

According to Al Jazeera, Rudolf said a wider conflict could deepen Iraq's political divisions, disrupt trade and investment, slow reforms and reduce Baghdad's ability to maintain balanced relations with both Washington and Tehran.

"Finally, Iraq’s diplomatic space would shrink: rather than mediating, Baghdad could be coerced into becoming a theatre for proxy contestation, making balanced relations and credible security reform far harder.

"The real danger is not necessarily all-out war but a thousand small escalations that hollow out Iraq’s sovereignty."

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)