Houthi Control Of Bab el-Mandeb: How A Strait 3,000 Km From India Could Hit Oil And Exports

Houthi forces have seized key positions along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, bringing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closer to their control and raising the prospect of disruption to a maritime route that India relies on for energy supplies and trade with Europe. Any sustained threat to the waterway could affect crude oil supplies, petroleum exports and the cost of shipping goods to European markets.

The development comes as the Strait of Hormuz is already under strain following the outbreak of the US-Iran war. Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb could add pressure to Gulf energy flows and force ships carrying Indian exports and imports to take longer routes around Africa. The strait is nearly 3,000 km from India, but it forms part of a maritime corridor that connects Indian ports with European markets.

Why the Strait is vital for India

Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow, 29-km-wide strait between Yemen and Djibouti that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and, beyond it, the Arabian Sea. Through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, it provides a major maritime link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean.

The strait has long been used for the movement of oil and petroleum products. Saudi crude loaded at western ports such as Jeddah and Yanbu has travelled through Bab el-Mandeb towards Asian markets.

The route is also used by Asian exporters sending goods to Europe and North Africa, with ships using the Red Sea and Suez Canal to reach Mediterranean ports before some continue through the Strait of Gibraltar towards Atlantic ports such as Rotterdam.

India has a significant stake in this trade route because of its refining and export activity. Indian refiners send large quantities of diesel, aviation turbine fuel and other petroleum products to Europe. Container vessels carrying pharmaceuticals, textiles, machinery and engineering products also use the Suez route.

According to India Today, Indian refiners supplied about 60 per cent of Europe’s diesel requirements in August, with most of those shipments travelling through Bab el-Mandeb.

The Hormuz factor

The strategic importance of Bab el-Mandeb has increased as the Strait of Hormuz has come under pressure.

The Strait of Hormuz is the most direct maritime route for Gulf energy exporters sending supplies towards Asian markets. After Tehran shut the waterway during the US-Iran war, Gulf exporters turned to alternative routes.

Saudi Arabia’s 1,200-km East-West Crude Oil Pipeline has been among the infrastructure used to bypass Hormuz. The pipeline transports crude towards Saudi Arabia’s western coast, allowing oil to reach ports along the Red Sea instead.

From there, tankers depend on Bab el-Mandeb to enter the wider maritime route towards the Indian Ocean and Asian markets.

This makes the Houthi advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast significant for the flow of Gulf oil towards Asian markets. Control of the strait’s approaches could give Ansar Allah greater ability to interfere with shipping moving between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

How the Houthis reached the strait

The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have been fighting for control of Yemen for more than a decade.

The Iran-backed movement seized Sanaa in 2014 and subsequently consolidated control over large parts of northern and western Yemen, including a substantial section of the Red Sea coast.

Saudi Arabia launched a military intervention in Yemen in 2015 after the Houthi advance. The Saudi-led coalition failed to dislodge the group, and years of fighting eventually gave way to a prolonged stalemate. Saudi Arabia later reduced its direct military involvement after years of airstrikes and support for forces opposed to the Houthis.

A UN-brokered truce in 2022 reduced fighting but did not result in a lasting political settlement.

The Houthis have also developed their military capabilities. Ansar Allah now possesses ballistic missiles, drones and other increasingly sophisticated weapons, with Iranian aid contributing to its capabilities.

The latest advance reportedly unfolded in little more than 18 hours. India Today reported that Houthi forces had moved rapidly along the Red Sea coast, while Reuters reported on Friday that the group had seized the strategic port city of Mocha and was advancing towards the Hanish islands.

The offensive was reportedly aided by Tehran, which promised additional assistance and deputed Iranian officers to Yemen. Iran has publicly denied providing such support.

The Associated Press separately reported that Houthi forces had captured Mayun, also known as Perim Island, which lies inside Bab el-Mandeb. The Financial Times reported that the group had reached the Zuqar and Hanish islands.

The reported gains would put the Houthis in a stronger position around the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb and along Yemen’s Red Sea coast.

Houthi senior official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti declared to media outlets, "We have taken control of Bab el-Mandeb."

A closure is not necessary to disrupt shipping

Houthi control of the area does not necessarily mean that all international shipping would immediately stop using Bab el-Mandeb.

Reuters reported on Thursday that a Houthi spokesperson said freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would remain "safe and uninterrupted" and that operations were limited to specific targets.

But commercial shipping can be disrupted even without a formal closure of the waterway.

Ansar Allah has maintained a blockade against all Saudi shipping through Bab el-Mandeb since July. Its recent territorial gains along the Red Sea coast could make it easier for the group to enforce that blockade.

Shipping companies also face the decisions of maritime insurers. If vessels are considered too risky to operate through a particular waterway, insurance rates can rise sharply, making the route more expensive even without a formal closure.

The experience of late 2023 showed how quickly this can affect global shipping. A series of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea led at least 2,000 ships to avoid the Suez Canal and sail around the Cape of Good Hope instead.

That added significant time to voyages and delayed critical imports reaching India.

Saudi oil would face a longer route to Asia

Saudi Arabia would be among the countries most directly affected by a prolonged disruption because Asia is a major market for its crude. India, China, Japan and South Korea are among its biggest buyers.

If tankers carrying Saudi crude from Yanbu were unable to use Bab el-Mandeb, they would have to take a substantially longer route. One possible route would take vessels north through the Suez Canal, across the Mediterranean and through the Strait of Gibraltar before sending them around the Cape of Good Hope towards Asia.

The journey from Yanbu to Kagoshima in Japan, for example, could increase from about 14,200 km to 27,200 km depending on the route.

Such a detour would add weeks to delivery times while increasing fuel and freight costs.

For India, the impact would extend beyond crude imports.

How Bab el-Mandeb disruption could hit India

One immediate concern is the effect on global oil prices.

The volume of crude oil and petroleum products passing through Bab el-Mandeb has already fallen significantly, from 9.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to around 4.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025.

According to India Today, Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel after news of the Houthi advance before settling at around $99.

A continued disruption at Bab el-Mandeb could put further pressure on energy prices. India could seek alternative supplies, including from Russia, but that would not shield it from a broader increase in global crude prices.

The second concern is trade.

Indian refineries export diesel, aviation turbine fuel and other petroleum products to Europe through the Red Sea. Other Indian exports, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, machinery and engineering products, also rely on the Suez route.

If shipping companies avoid Bab el-Mandeb, vessels would have to sail around the African continent.

The distance between Mumbai and Rotterdam could rise from around 15,700 km through the shorter route to approximately 23,000 km via the Cape of Good Hope.

That longer journey would increase the logistical cost of transporting Indian goods to Europe and could make them less competitive in those markets. Imports travelling in the opposite direction would also become more expensive.

For India, a prolonged disruption at Bab el-Mandeb could therefore mean higher energy costs, more expensive freight and longer delivery times for trade with Europe.

With the Strait of Hormuz already under strain, disruption at both maritime chokepoints could put further pressure on India’s energy supplies and export trade.