Crisis Watch | How Sudan's Civil War Is Following A Deadly Pattern

The warnings came long before El Fasher fell.

For months, the United Nations (UN), humanitarian agencies and the Security Council warned that the siege of Sudan's last Sudanese Armed Forces-held city in Darfur was placing hundreds of thousands of civilians at risk. Food and medical supplies were running out, access to aid had all but collapsed and ethnic violence was escalating against the city's predominantly non-Arab communities.

Those fears culminated in October 2025 when Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters captured El Fasher after an 18-month siege. Based on more than 320 witness interviews, satellite imagery, verified videos and forensic evidence, the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission concluded that the atrocities committed during and after the takeover displayed "hallmarks of genocide" against the Zaghawa and Fur communities.

Eight months later, concern has shifted eastwards.

Briefing the Security Council in June, UN officials warned that RSF reinforcements around El Obeid in North Kordofan risk repeating the pattern witnessed in El Fasher, while Secretary-General António Guterres said Sudan was "spiralling into deeper catastrophe", with civilians continuing to bear the brunt of a conflict marked by escalating violence, displacement and hunger.

A Siege Unfolds

According to the Fact-Finding Mission, the fall of El Fasher was preceded by a systematic campaign that gradually dismantled the city's ability to sustain civilian life.

From mid-2024, RSF forces tightened their encirclement of the city by constructing trenches and earthen berms around key access routes. Markets were repeatedly attacked or forced to close, humanitarian convoys were blocked and food deliveries became increasingly rare.

Water infrastructure, electricity networks and health facilities were damaged, while communications were disrupted, leaving residents isolated from the outside world.

The consequences were felt inside homes long before they appeared on the battlefield.

"Life became unbearable. We were eating only Ombaz – the food for livestock. When there was no more, we ate the skin of the animal. We soaked it in water and ate," one survivor told UN investigators.

As supplies dwindled, community kitchens became one of the few remaining sources of food, but they too came under attack. The Mission concluded that the siege deliberately imposed "conditions of life calculated to bring about physical destruction" of targeted communities through starvation, denial of healthcare and restrictions on humanitarian assistance.

By the time El Fasher was overrun, El-Saudi Hospital was the city's only functioning medical facility, operating with severe shortages of medicines, equipment and staff. Patients suffering from otherwise treatable illnesses died as services collapsed under the weight of the siege.

The Fall of El Fasher

When RSF fighters entered El Fasher on 26 October 2025, the violence extended rapidly beyond military targets.

Survivors described fighters moving through residential neighbourhoods, separating civilians at checkpoints and carrying out executions in homes, hospitals and places of refuge.

One woman fleeing the city watched as fighters killed her two-year-old son before raping her beside his body.

Another survivor, forced towards El Fasher University where thousands of civilians had sought shelter, recalled hearing a commander identify himself as "Abu Lulu" before declaring, "I was planning to kill 2,000 people today, but I lost count, so I will start all over again."

Multiple witnesses identified the same commander as directing executions inside the university complex.

One survivor told investigators that Abu Lulu asked a visibly pregnant woman how many months pregnant she was. When she answered "seven months", he allegedly fired seven bullets into her abdomen.

The Fact-Finding Mission verified videos showing bodies piled inside university buildings, including footage of a wounded person being executed among other injured civilians. The violence spread to El-Saudi Hospital, where shelling was followed by an armed assault.

Patients, accompanying relatives and medical staff were killed, while six healthcare workers were abducted. The Mission estimates that around 460 people present at the hospital lost their lives. Satellite imagery later analysed by Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab showed evidence consistent with bodies being burned.

The Mission concluded that the killings formed part of a broader pattern of attacks directed against civilians rather than isolated acts committed during combat.

Targeted Communities

Beyond the killings, the Fact-Finding Mission found that ethnic persecution and conflict-related sexual violence were central to the assault on El Fasher.

Witnesses consistently reported that RSF fighters singled out members of the Zaghawa and other non-Arab communities. Survivors recalled hearing statements such as, "Is there anyone Zaghawa among you? If we find Zaghawa, we will kill them all," while others described fighters declaring, "We will carry out extermination against you, an extermination like what we did to Masalit."

The Mission concluded that the violence was accompanied by ethnically discriminatory rhetoric and conduct.

Women and girls aged between seven and 70 were subjected to rape and gang rape in homes, hospitals, public buildings and along escape routes. According to the investigation, the assaults frequently took place in front of relatives or beside the bodies of family members.

"They raped me in front of the bodies of my mother, my father and my slaughtered brother," one survivor told investigators. The report documented at least 85 victims of sexual slavery during the conflict, with the majority of cases attributed to the RSF.

Survivors also described being subjected to ethnic abuse during the assaults, with perpetrators telling victims, "These are slaves. Kill them, destroy them, rape them," and "You must give birth to our children." The Mission found that the violence served both ethnic and gender-based objectives by terrorising communities and forcing displacement.

Children and Hunger

The humanitarian consequences of the conflict continue to deepen across Sudan.

More than 100,000 people fled El Fasher following its capture, many crossing into Chad and South Sudan or seeking refuge elsewhere in Darfur. Repeated displacement left families separated, while hundreds of children arrived in safer areas without parents or guardians.

The United Nations has verified more than 5,700 grave violations against children since fighting began in April 2023, including killings, recruitment by armed groups and attacks on schools and hospitals. More than 1,500 of those violations were recorded in El Fasher alone.

The crisis has also fuelled one of the world's worst hunger emergencies. According to UNICEF, nearly 800,000 children under the age of five are expected to suffer severe acute malnutrition in 2026. "Children suffering from severe acute malnutrition arrive at overstretched facilities too weak to cry," UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said.

A joint assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Food Programme and UNICEF warned that nearly 19.5 million people across Sudan are expected to face acute food insecurity during the lean season, with famine remaining a risk in conflict-affected areas where humanitarian access remains severely restricted.

The Next Threat

International attention has increasingly turned to El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, where UN officials fear a repeat of El Fasher.

Briefing the Security Council, senior UN officials warned that the RSF has reinforced positions around the city, placing an estimated 500,000 civilians at risk if fighting intensifies. The International Criminal Court has separately warned of an "ongoing pattern of large-scale crimes against humanity" across Darfur.

In his latest remarks to the Security Council, Secretary-General António Guterres said Sudan was facing a rapidly worsening emergency, warning that the conflict continued to spread geographically while civilians remained trapped by violence, displacement and hunger. He urged all parties to protect civilians, ensure humanitarian access and work towards an immediate cessation of hostilities.

Humanitarian agencies say the response continues to fall short of the needs on the ground. Sudan's 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is only 20% funded, limiting efforts to deliver food, healthcare and protection to affected communities.

An Unfinished Crisis

The UN's investigation concluded that the atrocities in El Fasher were preceded by months of publicly documented warnings over starvation, ethnic violence and attacks on civilians before culminating in what investigators described as the "hallmarks of genocide" against the Zaghawa and Fur communities.

Today, as humanitarian agencies warn of worsening food insecurity, the Security Council monitors developments around El Obeid and the Secretary-General calls for greater protection of civilians and humanitarian access, the conflict continues to expand beyond Darfur, leaving millions dependent on aid while investigations into alleged atrocities continue.