India Pulls Out, China’s Plans Unclear: Who Will Shape Asia’s Climate Agenda At COP33?

India's withdrawal from hosting the 2028 United Nations climate summit and reports that China has shelved its plans have opened up the race to host COP33, with Indonesia emerging as a potential alternative. The uncertainty comes as the Asia-Pacific region prepares to take the conference presidency at a critical stage in assessing global progress under the Paris Agreement.

India formally withdrew its offer on April 2, communicating the decision to the Asia-Pacific group. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had first proposed hosting COP33 during the COP28 summit in Dubai in December 2023.

China's position, however, remains unconfirmed. Indonesia's Deputy for Climate Change Control, Ary Sudijanto, said on Saturday that Beijing had shelved its intention to bid, citing domestic political considerations. But when asked about the report on Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said she had no information on the matter. Beijing has not officially announced a withdrawal.

Indonesia Considers Taking The Lead

Indonesia has joined the potential host race, with Environment Ministry officials confirming to state news agency that the country was assessing a bid following discussions with Chinese delegates at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye.

Sudijanto described hosting the summit as both a strategic opportunity and a logistical challenge. Environment Ministry official Irawan Asaad estimated that the conference could require accommodating around 100,000 delegates from 168 countries. Indonesia must also consider its preparations for the 2029 election year.

South Korea has also been mentioned among potential contenders, although no formal bids have been confirmed.

Under the UN climate body's regional rotation arrangement, the COP33 president in November 2028 will come from the Asia-Pacific group. The UNFCCC has encouraged countries in the region to submit a hosting offer by June 2027, warning that delayed confirmation increases logistical and financial risks.

Why COP33 Matters

The 2028 summit will be particularly significant because it is scheduled to conclude the second Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement. Beginning at COP31 in November 2026, the process will assess collective progress between 2024 and 2028 and inform countries' subsequent climate commitments and international cooperation.

The stakes are particularly high for Asia, where rising temperatures, extreme rainfall, drought, glacier retreat and ocean warming are already affecting communities. The World Meteorological Organization's 2025 regional climate assessment found that marine heatwaves affected more than 10 million square kilometres of Asia's oceans between July and September.

The Climate Finance Question

The question of financing will also shape the summit's significance. The UN Environment Programme's 2026 Adaptation Gap Report estimates that developing countries need US$305 billion annually by 2035 to meet adaptation requirements. International public adaptation finance, however, stood at just $28.2–31.7 billion in 2024.

Who hosts COP33 will not determine the negotiations' outcome, but the presidency will have an important role in shaping discussions and building consensus. For Asia-Pacific countries facing mounting climate risks, the search for a host is therefore also a question of who will help steer the region's priorities on adaptation, finance and climate action.